MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 2Randy Arozarena
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.354wOBA vs RHP.344xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .326 vs league .314 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .309 vs league .297 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .307 vs league .295 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .365 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Randy Arozarena's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Randy Arozarena's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 102.8 mph at 0°Double: 73.2 mph at 37°Out: 53.8 mph at 19°Out: 86.3 mph at 32°Single: 101.1 mph at 9°Out: 100.4 mph at 24°Out: 83.0 mph at 34°Out: 100.6 mph at -4°Home run: 106.8 mph at 35°Out: 95.3 mph at -16°Out: 84.6 mph at 3°Single: 80.4 mph at 11°Out: 96.1 mph at 36°Double: 100.3 mph at 17°Single: 105.4 mph at 1°Out: 79.0 mph at 79°Single: 103.9 mph at -1°Single: 103.8 mph at 3°Out: 83.5 mph at 2°Out: 93.0 mph at 37°Out: 82.4 mph at 1°Single: 96.3 mph at -1°Double: 102.8 mph at 20°Out: 97.8 mph at -8°Home run: 101.7 mph at 31°Home run: 101.6 mph at 29°Out: 103.2 mph at -8°Out: 110.0 mph at -26°Single: 103.4 mph at -13°Out: 91.3 mph at 53°Home run: 102.8 mph at 38°Out: 103.2 mph at -6°Single: 91.2 mph at 3°Out: 88.2 mph at -2°Single: 70.6 mph at -16°Out: 103.9 mph at 7°Out: 85.8 mph at -21°Out: 89.8 mph at 40°Double: 100.1 mph at 13°Out: 70.8 mph at 6°
57% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.0%63.5%+1.5
2+ total bases39.3%37.6%+1.7
Home run16.4%14.5%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Randy Arozarena against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.326.31429.6%24.7%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.309.29727.0%28.0%25About league average vs these
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.307.29526.7%26.9%14About league average vs these
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.365.35213.6%10.7%49About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Randy Arozarena · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.100.400.200.317.38313.3%26.7%12.9%86.9102.812.5%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1438.226.368.290.313.31915.8%13.2%15.8%92.6110.04.0%56.0%24.0%
Last 30 G2983.235.373.368.339.33924.1%13.3%24.2%91.2110.06.2%43.8%37.5%
90 days73229.236.362.435.361.35222.7%10.9%25.5%90.9111.28.6%43.9%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.400.5001.000.600.60133.3%16.7%42.9%97.5106.833.3%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1329.478.5521.087.674.52417.2%13.8%20.6%91.1106.815.8%57.9%31.6%
Last 30 G2252.439.5381.024.633.47915.4%17.3%19.8%91.0108.217.6%47.1%20.6%
90 days49110.351.436.691.494.38713.6%11.8%19.2%88.7109.18.8%41.2%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 9%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.200.429.467.398.44519.0%23.8%22.2%89.8106.818.2%54.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1567.333.448.630.463.40416.4%13.4%18.0%92.0110.09.1%56.8%27.3%
Last 30 G30135.312.437.615.450.39220.7%14.8%22.5%91.1110.011.0%45.1%30.5%
90 days76339.274.386.519.404.36319.8%11.2%23.5%90.1111.28.7%42.9%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 219 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
Randy Arozarena · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.399 / .374running 25 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.4102.80.410Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.673.237.330Double
Sep 24RHPFastball97.053.819.136Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.186.332.054Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.4101.19.614Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.7100.424.795Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup85.083.034.036Out
Sep 20RHPSlider83.7100.6-4.338Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup83.9106.8352.000Home run
Sep 19RHPSweeper83.795.3-16.120Out
Sep 19LHPFastball90.784.63.295Out
Sep 18RHPCurveball79.580.411.355Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412001
Sep 23511020
Sep 22400021
Sep 20400011
Sep 19414101
Sep 18534000
Sep 16511021
Sep 15411001
Sep 14423000
Sep 13539200

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Randy Arozarena bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Randy Arozarena with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.5%42.4%
Whiff%20.1%22.2%
Contact%79.9%77.8%
Chase%42.0%39.8%
wOBA.255.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.381
K%20.8%
BB%11.0%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV90.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

224 PA
wOBA.354
xwOBA vs this mix.344against pitches like his
RV/1000.89
Hard-hit%26.8%
K%22.9%
BB%11.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Randy Arozarena: every projection we've made →