MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 5Andrew Knizner
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.279wOBA vs LHP.275xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .304 vs league .312 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .293 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .302 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .317 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrew Knizner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrew Knizner's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 102.2 mph at 4°Out: 74.7 mph at -6°Out: 87.4 mph at 52°Single: 97.4 mph at 0°Out: 107.6 mph at 5°Single: 66.0 mph at 45°Out: 98.1 mph at 37°Out: 94.7 mph at 35°Out: 101.8 mph at 8°Single: 105.7 mph at -8°Out: 80.9 mph at 71°Out: 75.6 mph at 75°Single: 81.9 mph at 11°Out: 98.4 mph at -8°Single: 103.9 mph at 15°Single: 34.2 mph at 42°Out: 89.4 mph at 62°Single: 91.5 mph at -10°Out: 80.9 mph at -16°Out: 79.3 mph at 69°Out: 78.6 mph at 25°Home run: 105.2 mph at 26°Double: 104.6 mph at 11°Out: 48.2 mph at -34°Out: 82.3 mph at 28°Out: 92.2 mph at -21°Out: 61.5 mph at 32°Out: 87.2 mph at 9°Out: 87.9 mph at -42°Out: 102.5 mph at 5°Out: 61.3 mph at -17°Out: 97.3 mph at 28°Single: 104.7 mph at 6°Out: 80.2 mph at -14°Double: 99.3 mph at 26°Out: 87.6 mph at 74°Out: 99.6 mph at -14°Out: 49.8 mph at 62°Out: 84.6 mph at 44°Out: 63.0 mph at -42°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.4%57.2%-4.8
2+ total bases26.5%31.0%-4.5
Home run6.2%8.9%-2.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Andrew Knizner against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.304.31218.7%21.8%11About league average vs these
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.293.30124.5%30.0%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.302.31026.3%32.3%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.317.32616.3%20.5%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrew Knizner · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.444.444.556.439.24611.1%0.0%11.8%89.8105.70.0%50.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1124.318.375.409.350.26720.8%8.3%18.4%83.0105.70.0%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G2245.190.244.310.247.24117.8%6.7%15.9%84.5106.62.9%32.4%23.5%
90 days2245.190.244.310.247.24117.8%6.7%15.9%84.5106.62.9%32.4%23.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 12%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.000.167.000.117.27016.7%0.0%20.0%93.5107.60.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1321.158.238.316.248.32519.0%0.0%28.6%89.9107.66.7%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1830.308.400.500.393.36716.7%3.3%28.9%90.5107.69.5%38.1%28.6%
90 days1830.308.400.500.393.36716.7%3.3%28.9%90.5107.69.5%38.1%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 5%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.333.357.310.25613.3%0.0%14.8%91.0107.60.0%50.0%8.3%
Last 15 G1545.244.311.366.302.29420.0%4.4%22.6%86.3107.63.1%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2675.235.307.382.305.29117.3%5.3%20.3%86.8107.65.5%34.5%25.5%
90 days2675.235.307.382.305.29117.3%5.3%20.3%86.8107.65.5%34.5%25.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 9%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 18%
Andrew Knizner · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches84trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .303results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.6102.24.554Double
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.774.7-6.051Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.787.452.003Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.597.40.326Single
Sep 21RHPSinker93.5107.65.590Double play
Sep 21LHPSinker91.766.045.219Single
Sep 20RHPSlider85.498.137.297Out
Sep 20LHPFastball97.594.735.207Out
Sep 19LHPSlider87.8101.88.608Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup86.0105.7-8.250Single
Sep 19RHPSlider91.380.971.000Out
Sep 19LHPSlider88.775.675.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23312000
Sep 22211000
Sep 21211000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19411000
Sep 18211000
Sep 16533000
Sep 14300010
Sep 13214100
Sep 11312001

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Andrew Knizner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrew Knizner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.7%41.6%
Whiff%19.0%21.7%
Contact%81.0%78.3%
Chase%41.6%40.0%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.313
K%17.6%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV86.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

45 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.275against pitches like his
RV/100-1.06
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%19.9%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrew Knizner: every projection we've made →