MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 7Andy Pages
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.427wOBA vs LHP.424xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Andy Pages: wOBA .377 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Andy Pages: wOBA .318 vs league .299 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Andy Pages: wOBA .335 vs league .315 (hitter's edge).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Andy Pages: wOBA .354 vs league .334 (hitter's edge).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andy Pages's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andy Pages's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.0 mph at 27°Single: 71.3 mph at 35°Double: 77.4 mph at 9°Single: 92.8 mph at 20°Out: 87.7 mph at 4°Out: 72.0 mph at 29°Out: 82.7 mph at 12°Out: 74.9 mph at 41°Single: 92.3 mph at 4°Out: 92.4 mph at 22°Out: 93.2 mph at -16°Out: 80.7 mph at 31°Out: 96.5 mph at 9°Single: 71.3 mph at 17°Out: 78.2 mph at 23°Double: 100.2 mph at 11°Single: 96.9 mph at 14°Single: 99.1 mph at 0°Out: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 59.5 mph at -21°Home run: 100.6 mph at 33°Out: 71.3 mph at 3°Out: 92.1 mph at -3°Out: 59.9 mph at -9°Out: 86.9 mph at 21°Home run: 100.8 mph at 32°Single: 102.9 mph at -6°Single: 77.3 mph at 25°Out: 69.3 mph at 69°Out: 104.1 mph at 17°Out: 98.9 mph at -8°Out: 76.8 mph at -14°Out: 81.4 mph at 38°Out: 78.9 mph at 27°Out: 51.7 mph at -26°Single: 99.3 mph at 7°Out: 87.4 mph at 53°Out: 98.1 mph at 29°Single: 91.8 mph at 9°Out: 71.5 mph at -66°
33% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.1%62.4%+1.7
2+ total bases34.6%33.7%+0.9
Home run9.8%10.2%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.0
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-2.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Andy Pages against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.377.3578.9%16.8%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.318.29923.7%32.7%10About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.335.31516.9%25.1%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.354.33413.7%24.2%8Little history vs this shape; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andy Pages · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.429.429.386.31428.6%0.0%13.3%84.292.80.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1124.348.375.652.435.34920.8%4.2%7.8%89.4106.511.1%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G2249.356.408.622.440.42614.3%8.2%9.0%91.8108.17.9%50.0%44.7%
90 days3578.348.423.623.448.45315.4%11.5%11.5%90.8108.110.5%52.6%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.125.417.250.337.38025.0%16.7%25.0%83.595.00.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1438.258.395.323.337.38113.2%13.2%14.0%84.0100.23.8%26.9%46.2%
Last 30 G2881.254.346.338.317.30118.5%9.9%20.1%85.7100.21.8%25.5%38.2%
90 days46138.244.348.319.318.28821.0%10.1%20.3%85.6106.52.2%24.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 89 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.267.421.333.355.35626.3%10.5%18.5%83.895.00.0%10.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1562.296.387.463.375.36916.1%9.7%10.9%86.2106.56.8%34.1%45.5%
Last 30 G30130.293.369.448.364.34916.9%9.2%15.7%88.2108.14.3%35.5%40.9%
90 days49216.282.375.431.364.34719.0%10.6%17.1%87.6108.15.5%35.6%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 11%
Andy Pages · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating80Excellent
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .349results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider84.495.027.280Out
Sep 23LHPSinker93.271.335.565Single
Sep 23RHPFastball99.677.49.297Double
Sep 23LHPSinker100.492.820.287Single
Sep 22RHPSinker91.887.74.440Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup90.172.029.710Double play
Aug 19RHPFastball95.982.712.483Out
Aug 19RHPSlider83.874.941.203Out
Aug 19LHPFastball94.192.34.483Single
Aug 19LHPChangeup85.692.422.155Out
Aug 18RHPSinker93.993.2-16.140Force out
Aug 18RHPSweeper80.580.731.093Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400012
Sep 23434001
Sep 22400010
Aug 21200001
Aug 19511001
Aug 18511000
Aug 17534010
Aug 16414111
Aug 15400000
Aug 14436100

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Andy Pages bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andy Pages with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.1%41.6%
Whiff%19.3%21.7%
Contact%80.7%78.3%
Chase%41.4%40.0%
wOBA.266.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.5%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.350
K%19.9%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%8.1%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%24.8%
Avg EV87.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.427
xwOBA vs this mix.424against pitches like his
RV/1002.15
Hard-hit%35.9%
K%16.9%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andy Pages: every projection we've made →