MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 6Brett Harris
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.311wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .312 vs league .312 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .300 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .309 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .325 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brett Harris's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brett Harris's last 20 balls in playHit (6)Out (14)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.2 mph at -39°Out: 86.2 mph at 28°Single: 91.5 mph at 0°Single: 67.7 mph at 26°Out: 103.6 mph at 14°Out: 91.2 mph at -17°Double: 91.9 mph at 24°Out: 70.7 mph at -3°Single: 98.5 mph at -11°Single: 89.2 mph at 7°Out: 100.9 mph at -9°Out: 84.5 mph at 66°Double: 103.1 mph at 22°Out: 28.1 mph at 15°Out: 75.8 mph at -52°Out: 94.7 mph at -11°Out: 95.4 mph at 23°Out: 97.1 mph at 25°Out: 96.3 mph at -4°Out: 77.7 mph at -7°
35% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.3%53.8%-4.5
2+ total bases22.7%26.5%-3.8
Home run4.7%6.8%-2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brett Harris against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.312.31222.4%21.8%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.300.30127.7%30.0%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.309.31030.3%32.3%2Little history vs this shape
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.325.32618.6%20.5%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brett Harris · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.286.244.22237.5%12.5%21.4%91.2103.60.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1019.250.333.375.328.29221.1%5.3%19.4%87.4103.67.7%38.5%30.8%
Last 30 G1019.250.333.375.328.29221.1%5.3%19.4%87.4103.67.7%38.5%30.8%
90 days1019.250.333.375.328.29221.1%5.3%19.4%87.4103.67.7%38.5%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 13 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 31%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.286.312.24850.0%12.5%23.1%81.891.50.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 15 G1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
Last 30 G1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
90 days1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 14%Fly ball 43%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.214.312.286.278.23543.8%12.5%22.2%87.2103.60.0%14.3%57.1%
Last 15 G1237.188.278.250.260.24932.4%5.4%22.8%86.1103.65.0%35.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1237.188.278.250.260.24932.4%5.4%22.8%86.1103.65.0%35.0%40.0%
90 days1237.188.278.250.260.24932.4%5.4%22.8%86.1103.65.0%35.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 25%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 5%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.249 / .255results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSlider90.278.2-39.076Out
Sep 21RHPCutter90.886.228.087Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.691.50.301Single
Sep 21RHPCutter91.767.726.900Single
Sep 20LHPFastball94.4103.614.711Out
Sep 19LHPSlider88.591.2-17.109Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.891.924.183Double
Sep 18RHPSinker95.970.7-3.055Out
Sep 18LHPSlider86.198.5-11.199Single
Sep 16LHPChangeup85.789.27.519Single
Sep 16LHPSlider89.3100.9-9.252Double play
Sep 16LHPFastball93.484.566.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23300002
Sep 22200011
Sep 21422001
Sep 20400012
Sep 19312001
Sep 18411002
Sep 16411001
Sep 15212001
Sep 14300000
Sep 13200000

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Brett Harris bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Harris with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.6%
Whiff%22.0%21.7%
Contact%78.0%78.3%
Chase%40.3%40.0%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.0%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%25.3%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%21.8%
Avg EV85.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

19 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.34
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%23.8%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Harris: every projection we've made →