MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 9Christian Koss
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.313wOBA vs LHP.254xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .310 vs league .312 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .299 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .308 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .323 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Koss's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Koss's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 31.0 mph at 15°Out: 83.2 mph at 50°Single: 47.1 mph at -36°Out: 28.4 mph at -45°Double: 101.7 mph at 12°Out: 76.3 mph at -36°Out: 89.0 mph at -20°Out: 40.7 mph at -57°Out: 55.1 mph at -25°Out: 94.3 mph at 37°Out: 100.3 mph at -8°Out: 86.8 mph at -4°Out: 72.6 mph at 38°Out: 65.9 mph at 69°Single: 83.7 mph at 1°Out: 100.0 mph at 4°Single: 89.7 mph at 4°Out: 100.9 mph at 1°Single: 64.4 mph at 28°Single: 99.3 mph at 14°Out: 65.5 mph at 8°Out: 82.0 mph at -27°Out: 83.1 mph at 30°Single: 96.9 mph at 10°Single: 84.2 mph at -2°Out: 78.6 mph at -33°Out: 83.3 mph at 9°Single: 75.2 mph at 14°Out: 98.4 mph at 19°Single: 86.8 mph at 13°Single: 58.4 mph at 31°Out: 88.4 mph at 55°Home run: 100.2 mph at 35°Single: 65.7 mph at 39°Out: 65.1 mph at 7°Out: 70.9 mph at 30°Single: 87.4 mph at 5°Out: 65.2 mph at -4°Out: 89.1 mph at 29°Out: 68.3 mph at 68°
20% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.3%54.0%-4.7
2+ total bases20.9%24.7%-3.9
Home run4.7%6.7%-2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Koss against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.310.31222.4%21.8%16About league average vs these
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.299.30135.0%30.0%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.308.31039.6%32.3%9About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.323.32624.4%20.5%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Koss · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.200.200.220.17416.7%0.0%23.5%50.076.30.0%0.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1118.200.294.400.318.26122.2%11.1%30.3%69.8100.90.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1831.259.310.704.431.26019.4%6.5%25.0%74.2100.94.3%30.4%21.7%
90 days3658.222.250.463.315.23222.4%3.4%28.6%79.2103.62.4%31.0%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 12%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.100.200.145.16345.5%0.0%50.0%82.8101.70.0%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1435.333.353.364.328.29125.7%2.9%33.3%81.7101.70.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2877.261.301.275.288.26926.0%3.9%26.1%78.6105.60.0%22.6%45.3%
90 days51137.248.293.280.284.27027.0%5.1%26.1%81.6108.72.2%27.5%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.133.133.200.170.16735.3%0.0%37.1%67.9101.70.0%18.2%18.2%
Last 15 G1553.292.333.375.325.28124.5%5.7%32.3%77.9101.70.0%21.6%35.1%
Last 30 G30108.260.304.396.329.26624.1%4.6%25.8%77.3105.61.3%25.0%38.2%
90 days56195.240.280.335.293.25925.6%4.6%26.9%80.9108.72.3%28.6%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 133 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 8%
Christian Koss · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.278 / .267results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPFastball96.731.015.327Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.083.250.019Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.647.1-36.194Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.328.4-45–Sac bunt
Sep 21RHPFastball94.7101.712.936Double
Sep 21LHPCutter87.476.3-36.059Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.389.0-20.100Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.840.7-57–Sac bunt
Sep 19LHPFastball96.655.1-25.088Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.494.337.111Out
Sep 19RHPFastball98.3100.3-8.268Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.286.8-4.203Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23300002
Sep 22411001
Sep 21312001
Sep 20300002
Sep 19400000
Sep 18300002
Sep 16411001
Sep 15533000
Sep 14400002
Sep 13422001

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Christian Koss bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Koss with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.1%41.6%
Whiff%22.8%21.7%
Contact%77.2%78.3%
Chase%40.8%40.0%
wOBA.223.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.9%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%25.2%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%20.7%
Avg EV81.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.313
xwOBA vs this mix.254against pitches like his
RV/1000.37
Hard-hit%23.2%
K%22.9%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Koss: every projection we've made →