MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 4Dalton Rushing
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.296wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
2.7projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Dalton Rushing: wOBA .346 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Dalton Rushing: wOBA .299 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Dalton Rushing: wOBA .257 vs league .266 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Dalton Rushing: wOBA .282 vs league .291 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dalton Rushing's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dalton Rushing's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.8 mph at 51°Out: 82.7 mph at 51°Out: 107.4 mph at -8°Home run: 105.3 mph at 29°Out: 99.4 mph at 37°Single: 80.5 mph at 22°Single: 94.0 mph at 13°Double: 111.5 mph at 13°Single: 104.5 mph at -8°Single: 53.9 mph at 8°Out: 103.6 mph at 8°Single: 97.3 mph at 15°Out: 78.0 mph at 11°Out: 77.9 mph at 49°Out: 33.9 mph at -28°Out: 85.7 mph at 54°Double: 101.8 mph at 13°Home run: 107.7 mph at 27°Out: 101.1 mph at 7°Out: 73.3 mph at 44°Out: 86.1 mph at 5°Out: 58.3 mph at 24°Out: 63.2 mph at 72°Out: 94.9 mph at -1°Out: 74.9 mph at -2°Out: 106.4 mph at 5°Out: 91.2 mph at 53°Out: 71.8 mph at -9°Double: 103.1 mph at 23°Double: 106.7 mph at 14°Out: 77.6 mph at 2°Single: 74.0 mph at -11°Out: 96.6 mph at 38°Single: 102.6 mph at -7°Out: 95.2 mph at -14°Single: 104.9 mph at 0°Home run: 104.5 mph at 20°Out: 99.2 mph at 26°Double: 108.7 mph at 18°Single: 108.0 mph at 13°
53% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.3%56.1%+2.3
2+ total bases36.2%35.2%+1.0
Home run11.2%12.1%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-2.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dalton Rushing hits
Where they meet

.295 xwOBA for Dalton Rushing in the spots Matt Wilkinson throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (-9 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Matt Wilkinson puts 13% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Matt Wilkinson · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing2%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing12%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%1% of his pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing13%26% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing26%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%
All · 92 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 54 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13%39% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters39%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Slider · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dalton Rushing · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .005 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seen.209xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seen.273xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .288 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.304xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .215 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 9 pitches seen.343xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .374 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 6 pitches seen.345xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .292 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 8 pitches seen.274xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .088 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 5 pitches seen.313xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .542 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 3 pitches seen.334xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .409 shrunk (raw 1.171 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 6 pitches seen.409xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .169 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 33 pitches seen.241xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 8 pitches seen.270
vs LHP · 97 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 21%100%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 23%100%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 16%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 34%33%
vs LHP · 97 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 67%60%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 76%44%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 59%50%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 68%40%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 26%67%Swings at 27% of 33 pitches · league 31%27%Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 41%38%
vs LHP · 97 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dalton Rushing against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.346.35514.1%13.0%32About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.299.30828.7%28.0%13About league average vs these
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.257.26634.5%32.4%14About league average vs these
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.282.29134.4%31.7%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dalton Rushing · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G12.000.000.000.000.01950.0%0.0%75.0%82.782.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G612.000.083.000.058.14250.0%8.3%35.3%76.3101.10.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1428.192.250.308.248.25935.7%7.1%29.5%84.8108.712.5%37.5%31.2%
90 days1428.192.250.308.248.25935.7%7.1%29.5%84.8108.712.5%37.5%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 31%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.000.167.000.117.18050.0%0.0%40.0%96.1107.40.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1430.346.433.654.460.42640.0%10.0%41.1%95.0111.521.4%64.3%71.4%
Last 30 G2757.306.386.531.393.37333.3%10.5%28.6%91.9111.516.1%54.8%51.6%
90 days2757.306.386.531.393.37333.3%10.5%28.6%91.9111.516.1%54.8%51.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 32%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.000.125.000.088.14050.0%0.0%50.0%91.6107.40.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1542.243.333.459.345.34542.9%9.5%39.7%90.1111.515.8%52.6%52.6%
Last 30 G2885.267.341.453.345.33634.1%9.4%28.8%89.5111.514.9%48.9%44.7%
90 days2885.267.341.453.345.33634.1%9.4%28.8%89.5111.514.9%48.9%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 32%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
Dalton Rushing · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating75Above average
Last 100 pitches55trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .341results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 4RHPFastball97.584.851.017Out
Aug 1LHPCutter88.082.751.038Out
Aug 1RHPCutter94.4107.4-8.332Out
Jul 30RHPSlider88.8105.3291.694Home run
Jul 29RHPFastball95.099.437.330Out
Jul 29RHPCutter91.980.522.717Single
Jul 28RHPChangeup88.794.013.921Single
Jul 28RHPFastball95.6111.513.842Double
Jul 28RHPFastball102.3104.5-8.324Single
Jul 26RHPChangeup80.153.98.103Single
Jul 25RHPCutter93.8103.68.672Double play
Jul 25RHPSinker95.497.315.772Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 4100000
Sep 3200002
Sep 2100000
Sep 1100001
Aug 1300001
Jul 30414103
Jul 29311001
Jul 28434001
Jul 26111000
Jul 25411001

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.4%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%22.2%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%18.3%
Dalton Rushing bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dalton Rushing with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%51.3%44.3%
Whiff%24.6%23.6%
Contact%75.4%76.4%
Chase%31.4%38.0%
wOBA.214.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%19.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.297
K%33.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%25.9%
Avg EV89.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

28 PA
wOBA.296
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.42
Hard-hit%24.6%
K%28.3%
BB%8.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD6 days' rest
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.5%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 8.0%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.4%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 28% (red bars) · under: 72%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dalton Rushing: every projection we've made →