MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 12Drew Cavanaugh
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.293wOBA vs LHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
7.4projected K34%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.6 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Drew Cavanaugh: wOBA .327 vs league .330 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -12.1″ arm side, -9.7″ rise. Drew Cavanaugh: wOBA .251 vs league .254 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 17% usage, 88.2 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Drew Cavanaugh: wOBA .277 vs league .280 (about even).Slider 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Drew Cavanaugh: wOBA .335 vs league .339 (about even).Changeup 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Drew Cavanaugh's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Drew Cavanaugh's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.4 mph at -8°Out: 21.3 mph at 16°Out: 93.1 mph at -6°Out: 89.4 mph at -10°Out: 82.1 mph at -46°Out: 82.9 mph at 27°Out: 64.0 mph at 43°Home run: 104.5 mph at 41°Out: 59.8 mph at -50°Out: 93.6 mph at -7°Single: 90.3 mph at 6°Out: 21.3 mph at -53°Single: 72.2 mph at 33°Out: 69.5 mph at 51°Out: 71.0 mph at -12°Out: 100.8 mph at -12°Single: 77.8 mph at 18°Out: 74.3 mph at -33°Single: 87.4 mph at 13°Double: 87.3 mph at 10°Single: 62.4 mph at 17°Double: 72.8 mph at 19°Out: 67.9 mph at 21°Out: 71.5 mph at 2°Out: 99.7 mph at 5°Out: 103.1 mph at 23°Out: 98.3 mph at 11°Out: 101.9 mph at 28°Single: 104.2 mph at 15°Single: 101.3 mph at 9°Single: 99.0 mph at -3°Out: 90.0 mph at 40°Single: 105.4 mph at 16°Out: 93.7 mph at -22°Out: 87.2 mph at 32°Out: 71.9 mph at 53°Out: 55.8 mph at -47°Out: 49.6 mph at -40°Single: 43.9 mph at -46°Single: 87.6 mph at 13°
25% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit48.1%52.2%-4.1
2+ total bases24.8%28.8%-4.0
Home run4.7%7.4%-2.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-1.1
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-1.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Drew Cavanaugh hits
Where they meet

.295 xwOBA for Drew Cavanaugh in the spots Blake Snell throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .295 (0 points).Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Blake Snell · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%1% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing8%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing7%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing9%37% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing37%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing10%
All · 166 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 82 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%72% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters72%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters
Slider · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%69% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters69%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters
Curveball · 35 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Drew Cavanaugh · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 4 pitches seen.273xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seen.234xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .430 on 2 PA) · league .385 · 4 pitches seen.391xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .064 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.231xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .200 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.291xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .401 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 5 pitches seen.316xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .349 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 17 pitches seen.304xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 6 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 70 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 23%100%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 17%50%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 14%67%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 25%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 100% of 3 swings · league 48%100%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 70 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 64%33%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 59%57%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 68%43%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 30%60%Swings at 0% of 4 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 18% of 17 pitches · league 31%18%Swings at 17% of 6 pitches · league 41%17%
vs LHP · 70 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Drew Cavanaugh against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.6+5″ / +19″.327.33027.4%24.1%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball19%80.9-12″ / -10″.251.25439.2%32.5%2Little history vs this shape
Slider17%88.2-4″ / +5″.277.28039.1%32.3%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%86.6+13″ / +10″.335.33918.4%16.2%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Drew Cavanaugh · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%0.0%–––––
Last 15 G22.500.500.500.450.41850.0%0.0%0.0%87.487.40.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 30 G57.167.286.167.229.23857.1%14.3%30.8%79.787.40.0%0.0%50.0%
90 days1217.143.250.143.227.23047.1%11.8%35.7%75.3101.80.0%16.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 33%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.000.100.000.090.13745.5%9.1%56.2%75.393.10.0%0.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1534.138.219.241.225.20638.2%8.8%33.9%75.5104.50.0%11.1%16.7%
Last 30 G2978.229.289.300.274.31530.8%7.7%26.0%82.2105.44.2%33.3%45.8%
90 days53136.237.323.288.291.31727.9%11.0%23.1%82.3106.64.9%26.8%42.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 82 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 29%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.000.091.000.082.12550.0%8.3%52.9%75.393.10.0%0.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1536.161.235.258.238.21838.9%8.3%32.8%76.1104.50.0%10.5%21.1%
Last 30 G3085.224.289.289.270.30932.9%8.2%26.4%82.1105.44.0%32.0%46.0%
90 days54153.227.315.273.285.30830.1%11.1%24.4%81.8106.64.5%26.1%42.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 88 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 30%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
Drew Cavanaugh · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating38Below average
Last 100 pitches11trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.270 / .303running 33 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22RHPFastball97.490.4-8.119Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.321.316–Sac bunt
Sep 21RHPCutter91.593.1-6.154Out
Sep 21RHPCutter90.789.4-10.128Out
Sep 15RHPFastball95.782.1-46.075Out
Sep 12RHPSinker92.282.927.124Out
Sep 12RHPChangeup86.564.043.315Out
Sep 12RHPFastball96.1104.541.507Home run
Sep 9RHPFastball95.459.8-50.209Out
Sep 9RHPSlider89.593.6-7.192Out
Sep 9RHPCutter91.790.36.444Single
Sep 7RHPChangeup88.021.3-53–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23100001
Sep 22200000
Sep 21200000
Sep 18200002
Sep 15500013
Sep 14100010
Sep 13200011
Sep 12314100
Sep 11100001
Sep 9411001

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.4%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%20.9%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%22.2%
Drew Cavanaugh bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Drew Cavanaugh with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.4%44.3%
Whiff%25.1%23.6%
Contact%74.9%76.4%
Chase%37.0%38.0%
wOBA.217.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.8%26.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%27.8%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%19.0%
Avg EV83.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

17 PA
wOBA.293
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.71
Hard-hit%20.5%
K%28.8%
BB%11.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF10 days' rest
7.4projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 6.6%7%≤34 strikeouts: 7.8%8%45 strikeouts: 11.3%11%56 strikeouts: 13.9%14%67 strikeouts: 14.6%15%78 strikeouts: 13.5%14%89+ strikeouts: 32.3%32%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 60% (red bars) · under: 40%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 13 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Drew Cavanaugh: every projection we've made →