MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 7Drew Gilbert
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.287wOBA vs LHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
7.4projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 95.6 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Drew Gilbert: wOBA .306 vs league .330 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 50%Curveball: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -12.1″ arm side, -9.7″ rise. Drew Gilbert: wOBA .230 vs league .254 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 19%Slider: 17% usage, 88.2 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Drew Gilbert: wOBA .256 vs league .280 (pitcher's edge).Slider 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 86.6 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Drew Gilbert: wOBA .315 vs league .339 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Drew Gilbert's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Drew Gilbert's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.1 mph at 84°Single: 105.5 mph at 12°Single: 95.1 mph at 9°Out: 98.5 mph at -1°Home run: 104.3 mph at 22°Single: 95.0 mph at 8°Single: 70.6 mph at -17°Out: 99.0 mph at 4°Out: 95.1 mph at 19°Out: 84.7 mph at 42°Home run: 104.3 mph at 32°Out: 75.2 mph at 1°Out: 99.7 mph at 4°Out: 75.8 mph at -35°Out: 91.3 mph at -24°Out: 89.3 mph at -4°Out: 86.2 mph at -20°Home run: 103.3 mph at 29°Single: 97.2 mph at 12°Out: 95.5 mph at -9°Double: 97.1 mph at 11°Out: 21.7 mph at -75°Out: 71.2 mph at 51°Out: 88.3 mph at 30°Out: 103.2 mph at 17°Single: 99.9 mph at 10°Out: 77.7 mph at 4°Out: 56.7 mph at -55°Out: 49.5 mph at 60°Single: 91.6 mph at -10°Out: 97.0 mph at -23°Out: 78.6 mph at 76°Out: 107.0 mph at -19°Out: 57.4 mph at -56°Out: 94.4 mph at 23°Out: 93.2 mph at 32°Out: 81.8 mph at 57°Out: 97.5 mph at -17°Out: 73.7 mph at 6°Out: 86.5 mph at -27°
45% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.6%57.3%-6.6
2+ total bases25.6%32.5%-6.9
Home run5.6%11.2%-5.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-5.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-5.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.8
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
-4.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Drew Gilbert hits
Where they meet

.277 xwOBA for Drew Gilbert in the spots Blake Snell throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .295 (-17 points). His best spot against lefties is down-middle, and Blake Snell puts 2% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Blake Snell · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%1% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing8%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing7%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing9%37% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing37%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing10%
All · 166 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 82 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%72% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters72%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters
Slider · 43 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%69% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters69%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters
Curveball · 35 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Drew Gilbert · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .855 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.339xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .002 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.218xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .078 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.262xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .157 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 4 pitches seen.303xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .050 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.256xwOBA .394 shrunk (raw .655 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 5 pitches seen.394xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .473 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 8 pitches seen.336xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .597 on 2 PA) · league .346 · 13 pitches seen.382xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .143 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 31 pitches seen.235xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .257 · 4 pitches seen
vs LHP · 108 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 25%67%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 73% of 11 swings · league 48%73%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 108 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 71%56%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 64%75%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 67%80%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 76%25%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 59%43%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 30%38%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 26%23%Swings at 36% of 31 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 41%50%
vs LHP · 108 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Drew Gilbert against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%95.6+5″ / +19″.306.33026.3%24.1%13About league average vs these
Curveball19%80.9-12″ / -10″.230.25435.1%32.5%4Little history vs this shape
Slider17%88.2-4″ / +5″.256.28034.8%32.3%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%86.6+13″ / +10″.315.33917.0%16.2%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Drew Gilbert · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%0.0%–––––
Last 15 G33.000.333.000.233.24933.3%33.3%0.0%75.875.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G78.167.375.167.288.21437.5%12.5%30.8%82.791.60.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days2024.143.250.143.200.27229.2%8.3%25.0%83.5103.60.0%35.7%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 7%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.556.556.889.622.45711.1%0.0%17.6%93.5105.512.5%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1529.346.414.731.509.44713.8%6.9%16.7%89.1105.513.6%59.1%40.9%
Last 30 G3075.262.347.554.392.41017.3%9.3%18.3%89.4107.013.2%52.8%41.5%
90 days68179.265.352.471.372.38316.8%10.1%18.8%88.3108.710.2%41.7%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 127 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.500.500.800.560.41120.0%0.0%15.8%93.5105.512.5%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1532.321.406.679.483.42815.6%9.4%15.7%88.5105.513.0%56.5%39.1%
Last 30 G3083.254.349.521.382.39119.3%9.6%19.4%89.0107.012.5%50.0%39.3%
90 days68203.250.340.432.352.37018.2%9.9%19.7%87.8108.79.2%41.1%41.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 141 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 14%
Drew Gilbert · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .381running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball99.480.184.003Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.0105.512.965Single
Sep 22RHPSplitter92.395.19.589Single
Sep 22RHPFastball97.198.5-1.389Out
Sep 21RHPCutter91.7104.3221.071Home run
Sep 21RHPFastball95.295.08.576Single
Sep 21RHPFastball95.170.6-17.060Single
Sep 20RHPFastball96.499.04.457Out
Sep 18RHPCurveball81.795.119.401Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.384.742.010Out
Sep 16RHPSweeper79.7104.3321.451Home run
Sep 15RHPFastball94.575.21.126Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100000
Sep 23111000
Sep 22311001
Sep 21436101
Sep 20100000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18300010
Sep 16114100
Sep 15400001
Sep 14100010

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.4%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%20.9%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%22.2%
Drew Gilbert bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Drew Gilbert with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.7%44.3%
Whiff%26.2%23.6%
Contact%73.8%76.4%
Chase%37.5%38.0%
wOBA.203.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.1%26.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.323
K%18.6%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%8.7%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV87.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

24 PA
wOBA.287
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-0.59
Hard-hit%24.8%
K%24.2%
BB%9.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF10 days' rest
7.4projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 6.6%7%≤34 strikeouts: 7.8%8%45 strikeouts: 11.3%11%56 strikeouts: 13.9%14%67 strikeouts: 14.6%15%78 strikeouts: 13.5%14%89+ strikeouts: 32.3%32%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 60% (red bars) · under: 40%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 13 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Drew Gilbert: every projection we've made →