MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 11Enrique Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.245wOBA vs LHP.266xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
2.7projected K18%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Enrique Hernández: wOBA .361 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Enrique Hernández: wOBA .305 vs league .311 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Enrique Hernández: wOBA .313 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Enrique Hernández: wOBA .335 vs league .342 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Enrique Hernández's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Enrique Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.5 mph at 57°Single: 103.6 mph at 1°Out: 83.8 mph at 26°Out: 65.5 mph at -44°Double: 103.8 mph at 16°Out: 82.9 mph at -14°Out: 86.0 mph at 34°Out: 97.8 mph at 22°Out: 93.5 mph at 17°Single: 61.2 mph at -62°Single: 91.0 mph at 12°Out: 84.4 mph at 40°Out: 67.2 mph at -21°Single: 107.5 mph at 4°Out: 103.7 mph at -1°Out: 97.7 mph at 20°Double: 100.4 mph at 13°Out: 70.1 mph at -8°Home run: 101.6 mph at 33°Out: 98.4 mph at -12°Out: 90.0 mph at -16°Out: 66.3 mph at 1°Single: 106.3 mph at 10°Out: 81.8 mph at 76°Out: 97.8 mph at 41°Out: 101.9 mph at -3°Out: 62.0 mph at -13°Single: 94.8 mph at 6°Single: 95.0 mph at 14°Single: 84.7 mph at 13°Out: 77.4 mph at 56°Out: 101.5 mph at 27°Out: 81.8 mph at -21°Out: 97.7 mph at 22°Home run: 104.2 mph at 43°Single: 90.1 mph at 15°Out: 90.3 mph at 46°Out: 83.3 mph at 37°Out: 62.1 mph at -10°Out: 82.0 mph at -39°
40% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.2%52.1%+1.1
2+ total bases30.5%30.1%+0.3
Home run9.1%9.3%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.8
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Enrique Hernández hits
Where they meet

.287 xwOBA for Enrique Hernández in the spots Matt Wilkinson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .313 (-26 points). His best spot against lefties is up-left, and Matt Wilkinson puts 1% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Matt Wilkinson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing28%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing13%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing16%
All · 290 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%31% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters31%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 168 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%28% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters28%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 79 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%23% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters23%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Slider · 30 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Enrique Hernández · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .700 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.334xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .585 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 10 pitches seen.337xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .019 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 9 pitches seen.236xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seen.284xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .006 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 15 pitches seen.274xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .414 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 10 pitches seen.355xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .218 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.265xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .183 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 18 pitches seen.288xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .364 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 8 pitches seen.308xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .264 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 10 pitches seen.294xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 27 pitches seen.319xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .190 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 44 pitches seen.242xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .223 on 11 PA) · league .257 · 28 pitches seen.241
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 23%17%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 9%100%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 10%40%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 17%11%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 25%20%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 56% of 16 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 41% of 17 swings · league 34%41%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 63%88%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 71%90%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 59%82%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 30%50%Swings at 15% of 27 pitches · league 26%15%Swings at 36% of 44 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 61% of 28 pitches · league 41%61%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Enrique Hernández against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.361.36812.8%15.8%245About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.305.31127.1%30.6%114About league average vs these
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.313.32026.9%27.0%62About league average vs these
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.335.34221.8%26.2%96About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Enrique Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.200.273.300.259.27427.3%9.1%13.6%86.7103.80.0%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1122.105.227.158.193.22836.4%13.6%26.8%86.5103.80.0%27.3%27.3%
Last 30 G2550.130.200.217.193.22536.0%8.0%28.0%86.7104.23.6%28.6%28.6%
90 days2652.146.212.229.203.23734.6%7.7%27.5%87.8104.23.3%33.3%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.333.300.2170.0%0.0%0.0%80.0103.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1121.333.333.524.369.30819.0%0.0%12.1%89.2107.55.9%52.9%29.4%
Last 30 G1631.276.323.414.324.28525.8%6.5%17.6%89.2107.54.8%47.6%28.6%
90 days1734.250.294.375.296.26326.5%5.9%19.6%88.6107.54.3%43.5%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.294.312.274.25417.6%5.9%10.0%83.6103.80.0%23.1%38.5%
Last 15 G1543.225.279.350.279.26727.9%7.0%20.3%88.1107.53.6%42.9%28.6%
Last 30 G3081.187.247.293.243.24832.1%7.4%24.7%87.8107.54.1%36.7%28.6%
90 days3286.188.244.288.240.24831.4%7.0%24.8%88.2107.53.8%37.7%28.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
Enrique Hernández · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating5Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches38trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.242 / .251results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider82.866.557.014Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.1103.61.456Single
Sep 25RHPFastball96.483.826.145Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.165.5-44.175Out
Sep 20LHPFastball95.9103.816.591Double
Sep 18LHPChangeup86.782.9-14.083Double play
Sep 18LHPSlider86.886.034.014Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.997.822.393Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup86.793.517.683Out
Sep 16RHPSweeper81.161.2-62.244Single
Sep 14LHPCurveball82.791.012.763Single
Sep 14LHPChangeup87.184.440.005Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 20312001
Sep 18400001
Sep 16311001
Sep 14411010
Sep 13111000
Sep 11400002
Sep 9426101
Sep 8300010
Sep 6200002

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.4%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%22.2%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%18.3%
Enrique Hernández bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Enrique Hernández with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.4%41.4%
Whiff%20.3%22.0%
Contact%79.7%78.0%
Chase%42.6%40.7%
wOBA.245.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.5%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.275
K%27.4%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV89.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

52 PA
wOBA.245
xwOBA vs this mix.266against pitches like his
RV/100-1.41
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%30.3%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD6 days' rest
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.5%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 8.0%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.4%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 28% (red bars) · under: 72%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Enrique Hernández: every projection we've made →