MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 3Freddie Freeman
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.320wOBA vs LHP.321xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .346 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .301 vs league .302 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .289 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .322 vs league .323 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Freddie Freeman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Freddie Freeman's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.5 mph at -17°Single: 99.8 mph at 2°Single: 99.1 mph at 13°Out: 85.0 mph at 22°Out: 80.3 mph at 31°Out: 101.3 mph at 24°Out: 101.0 mph at 4°Single: 77.8 mph at 21°Single: 92.5 mph at 1°Single: 73.1 mph at 9°Out: 97.7 mph at -9°Single: 95.1 mph at 3°Out: 75.7 mph at 1°Out: 103.0 mph at 23°Out: 63.3 mph at 1°Out: 104.1 mph at 11°Out: 96.3 mph at 39°Out: 84.7 mph at 45°Single: 99.8 mph at 11°Out: 102.2 mph at 26°Single: 78.2 mph at 6°Out: 96.9 mph at 22°Out: 79.3 mph at 62°Out: 94.4 mph at 58°Single: 95.8 mph at 21°Out: 84.5 mph at -24°Out: 88.6 mph at -2°Single: 80.9 mph at 11°Single: 82.1 mph at 19°Out: 84.7 mph at 8°Out: 98.8 mph at -17°Out: 104.1 mph at -12°Out: 68.9 mph at 20°Out: 78.2 mph at -17°Out: 89.0 mph at 5°Out: 81.7 mph at -11°Out: 75.1 mph at -4°Out: 72.4 mph at -8°Out: 84.9 mph at -7°Out: 87.7 mph at -8°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.7%67.1%-0.4
2+ total bases37.9%39.2%-1.4
Home run7.4%9.6%-2.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.6
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Freddie Freeman against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.346.34715.7%12.7%31About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.301.30231.0%33.3%5Little history vs this shape
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.289.29027.4%28.5%12About league average vs these
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.322.32334.2%29.0%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Freddie Freeman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.429.429.386.35528.6%0.0%29.4%91.6101.00.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1126.120.154.120.131.17534.6%3.8%33.3%87.0104.20.0%37.5%18.8%
Last 30 G2246.227.261.318.258.27128.3%4.3%27.7%89.3105.23.2%38.7%41.9%
90 days51113.274.319.358.317.33618.6%6.2%23.2%88.1105.52.4%38.1%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 84 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 25%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.200.180.34226.7%0.0%28.6%88.1104.118.2%45.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1540.250.300.250.255.34422.5%2.5%30.1%87.1104.110.7%35.7%46.4%
Last 30 G2987.292.379.347.330.37719.5%11.5%26.6%87.7107.36.9%34.5%50.0%
90 days65192.314.375.385.342.36118.2%8.9%23.0%87.8109.65.1%35.0%48.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 137 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 37%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.273.273.273.245.34627.3%0.0%28.9%89.2104.112.5%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1566.197.242.197.206.27827.3%3.0%31.4%87.1104.26.8%36.4%36.4%
Last 30 G30133.267.338.336.305.34022.6%9.0%26.9%88.2107.35.6%36.0%47.2%
90 days72305.298.354.375.333.35218.4%7.9%23.1%87.9109.64.1%36.2%44.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 221 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 33%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 5%
Freddie Freeman · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating81Excellent
Last 100 pitches31trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.327 / .351running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.178.5-17.060Out
Sep 24LHPSlider89.199.82.432Single
Sep 24LHPSlider86.099.113.902Single
Sep 23LHPSlider88.585.022.410Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup91.880.331.064Out
Sep 23RHPFastball102.2101.324.835Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.2101.04.489Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider84.377.821.860Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.392.51.317Single
Sep 20LHPFastball90.173.19.252Single
Sep 20RHPSinker96.597.7-9.224Double play
Sep 20RHPCutter97.095.13.449Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422001
Sep 23500001
Sep 22422002
Sep 20422001
Sep 19500001
Sep 18400002
Sep 17522010
Sep 16500003
Sep 15533000
Sep 13500001

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Freddie Freeman bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Freddie Freeman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.2%44.1%
Whiff%21.0%22.7%
Contact%79.0%77.3%
Chase%41.6%38.1%
wOBA.226.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%19.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.343
K%19.0%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV88.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

112 PA
wOBA.320
xwOBA vs this mix.321against pitches like his
RV/100-0.47
Hard-hit%28.0%
K%19.2%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Freddie Freeman: every projection we've made →