MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 1Jonah Cox
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.353wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .315 vs league .312 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .304 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .313 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .329 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonah Cox's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonah Cox's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 77.9 mph at 3°Out: 80.6 mph at 40°Out: 94.6 mph at 52°Out: 88.4 mph at 24°Out: 102.5 mph at 9°Double: 103.9 mph at 13°Out: 91.6 mph at 19°Out: 41.5 mph at -4°Out: 52.7 mph at -49°Single: 102.4 mph at 8°Single: 100.4 mph at 6°Single: 95.6 mph at 12°Single: 75.1 mph at 19°Out: 82.4 mph at 23°Single: 50.1 mph at -30°Single: 94.9 mph at 13°Out: 94.9 mph at 19°Single: 49.4 mph at -45°Out: 74.6 mph at -4°Single: 98.3 mph at 14°Out: 78.5 mph at 29°Out: 61.1 mph at 4°Out: 18.5 mph at -56°Out: 83.1 mph at -14°Single: 34.1 mph at -21°Single: 94.4 mph at 15°Out: 87.6 mph at -9°Out: 99.5 mph at -9°Single: 86.9 mph at -20°Out: 46.2 mph at -59°Out: 95.6 mph at -4°Out: 37.1 mph at -37°Out: 95.1 mph at 56°Out: 81.9 mph at 32°Single: 81.9 mph at -28°Out: 21.0 mph at -15°Single: 103.3 mph at -4°Out: 97.0 mph at 20°Out: 50.4 mph at -48°Single: 97.4 mph at -5°
30% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.9%57.5%-5.6
2+ total bases24.2%29.2%-5.0
Home run6.5%9.6%-3.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jonah Cox against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.315.31233.5%21.8%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.304.30136.3%30.0%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.313.31040.9%32.3%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.329.32625.3%20.5%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonah Cox · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.000.286.000.229.26425.0%25.0%46.2%73.794.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1228.130.259.130.211.26635.7%14.3%37.0%78.0100.40.0%21.4%21.4%
Last 30 G2351.256.360.488.373.34935.3%13.7%34.0%87.7104.111.5%53.8%46.2%
90 days2967.241.323.448.367.32237.3%10.4%33.3%87.1104.111.4%48.6%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 35 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.083.154.167.150.21861.5%7.7%54.8%96.6103.90.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1438.303.324.333.344.29836.8%2.6%34.7%75.5103.90.0%27.3%50.0%
Last 30 G2462.291.328.309.319.25330.6%4.8%29.6%75.0103.90.0%25.6%33.3%
90 days2866.271.306.288.299.23734.8%4.5%30.2%75.0103.90.0%25.6%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 23%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.059.200.118.178.23447.6%14.3%52.3%85.1103.90.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1566.232.295.250.286.28436.4%7.6%35.7%76.5103.90.0%25.0%38.9%
Last 30 G30113.276.343.388.344.29732.7%8.8%31.6%80.1104.14.6%36.9%38.5%
90 days38133.256.315.368.334.28036.1%7.5%31.8%80.7104.15.4%36.5%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 5%
Jonah Cox · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating9Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches5steady
wOBA / xwOBA.299 / .259running 40 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPCurveball84.677.93.220Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball84.680.640.021Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup85.794.652.008Out
Sep 22RHPCutter88.688.424.173Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.6102.59.684Force out
Sep 21RHPFastball94.3103.913.875Double
Sep 20RHPSlider87.991.619.403Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.641.5-4–Sac bunt
Sep 18RHPSinker92.952.7-49–Sac bunt
Sep 18RHPFastball95.7102.48.608Single
Sep 16LHPFastball92.9100.46.598Single
Sep 16RHPSinker93.895.612.900Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400010
Sep 22500012
Sep 21412003
Sep 20400012
Sep 19400003
Sep 18411002
Sep 16533011
Sep 15511002
Sep 14411002
Sep 13511003

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Jonah Cox bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonah Cox with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%51.0%41.6%
Whiff%26.4%21.7%
Contact%73.6%78.3%
Chase%42.0%40.0%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.8%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.323
K%30.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%13.9%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV84.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/1000.85
Hard-hit%25.0%
K%34.1%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonah Cox: every projection we've made →