Marcelo Mayer vs Blake Snell, Sep 26, 2026

← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026

3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected

Hitter · SF · batting 7Marcelo Mayer

Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal

.308wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA

Starter · LADBlake Snell

Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down

6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-5.6 pts matchup

2+ total bases-5.3 pts matchup

Home run-3.8 pts matchup

Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Marcelo Mayer's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Marcelo Mayer's last 1 balls in playHit (0)Out (1)Barrel zone

0% hit 95+ mph100% in the sweet spot0% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	47.1%	52.7%	-5.6
2+ total bases	22.1%	27.3%	-5.3
Home run	5.3%	9.1%	-3.8

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

-4.0

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.7

Park

-0.9

2+ total bases

Starter

-3.4

Pitch mix

-0.0

Bullpen

-0.6

Park

-1.2

Home run

Starter

-2.4

Pitch mix

-0.0

Bullpen

-0.3

Park

-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Marcelo Mayer against each of Blake Snell's pitches

Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.
His pitch	Usage	Velo	Movement	His wOBA	League	His whiff%	League	Sample	Read
Fastball	50%	96.1	+6″ / +19″	.326	.326	24.2%	21.9%	1	Little history vs this shape
Curveball	22%	79.8	-14″ / -9″	.258	.257	31.7%	27.3%	1	Little history vs this shape
Changeup	18%	84.5	+13″ / +8″	.320	.320	30.6%	27.9%	1	Little history vs this shape
Slider	10%	88.6	-4″ / +7″	.321	.321	33.8%	29.1%	1	Little history vs this shape

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

Marcelo Mayer · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs LHPvs RHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	1	2	.000	.500	.000	.350	.349	50.0%	50.0%	100.0%	–	–	–	–	–
Last 15 G	1	2	.000	.500	.000	.350	.349	50.0%	50.0%	100.0%	–	–	–	–	–
Last 30 G	1	2	.000	.500	.000	.350	.349	50.0%	50.0%	100.0%	–	–	–	–	–
90 days	1	2	.000	.500	.000	.350	.349	50.0%	50.0%	100.0%	–	–	–	–	–

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	2	6	.000	.167	.000	.117	.229	66.7%	16.7%	61.5%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Last 15 G	2	6	.000	.167	.000	.117	.229	66.7%	16.7%	61.5%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Last 30 G	2	6	.000	.167	.000	.117	.229	66.7%	16.7%	61.5%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
90 days	2	6	.000	.167	.000	.117	.229	66.7%	16.7%	61.5%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play

Ground 0%Line drive 100%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	2	8	.000	.250	.000	.175	.259	62.5%	25.0%	68.8%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Last 15 G	2	8	.000	.250	.000	.175	.259	62.5%	25.0%	68.8%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Last 30 G	2	8	.000	.250	.000	.175	.259	62.5%	25.0%	68.8%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
90 days	2	8	.000	.250	.000	.175	.259	62.5%	25.0%	68.8%	92.8	92.8	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play

Ground 0%Line drive 100%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%

FormNormal

Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA

Last 100 pitches–

wOBA / xwOBA.174 / .260running 86 points behind his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit0/2

2+ total bases0/2

Home run0/2

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 1 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 23	RHP	Cutter	90.8	92.8	11	.676	Out

Total bases, last 2 games★ home run

021

023

Last 2 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	HR	BB	K
Sep 23	4	0	0	0	2	1
Sep 21	4	0	0	0	0	4

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-7 pts

Curveball+14 pts

Changeup-6 pts

Slider-0 pts

Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	50%	42%	28.0%	23.9%	18.6%
Curveball	22%	36%	33.3%	22.4%	21.3%
Changeup	18%	12%	17.6%	20.0%	18.3%
Slider	10%	10%	27.3%	20.0%	21.6%

Marcelo Mayer bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand

Marcelo Mayer with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikes	Him	League
K%	44.3%	44.1%
Whiff%	23.5%	22.7%
Contact%	76.5%	77.3%
Chase%	37.6%	38.1%
wOBA	.225	.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes	24.5%	23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent gradeCBalanced type

wOBA.299

K%29.2%

BB%6.6%

Whiff%10.8%

Barrel%5.0%

Hard-hit%30.8%

Avg EV89.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

2 PA

wOBA.308

xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his

RV/100-0.19

Hard-hit%24.3%

K%25.4%

BB%10.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF

6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings

Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%33.6%

BB%10.0%

Whiff%15.6%

Velo89.5

BTB Stuff116

Location102

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball50%12196.010.2%

Curveball22%10579.716.0%

Changeup18%11384.425.5%

Slider10%12588.627.6%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 11	101	35%	18%	9%	.227
Sep 4	101	30%	14%	17%	.287
Aug 29	99	46%	16%	5%	.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jonah Cox34%

2Turner Hill20%

3Victor Bericoto23%

4Bo Davidson21%

5Andrew Knizner20%

6Brett Harris24%

7Marcelo Mayer25%

8Shay Whitcomb22%

9Christian Koss23%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Marcelo Mayer: every projection we've made →