MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 9Miguel Rojas
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.334wOBA vs LHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
2.7projected K18%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Miguel Rojas: wOBA .380 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Miguel Rojas: wOBA .323 vs league .311 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Miguel Rojas: wOBA .332 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Miguel Rojas: wOBA .354 vs league .342 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Miguel Rojas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Miguel Rojas's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.1 mph at 38°Out: 84.2 mph at 24°Double: 105.6 mph at 3°Out: 92.9 mph at -24°Single: 104.3 mph at 5°Out: 72.0 mph at 14°Out: 101.3 mph at -10°Out: 90.8 mph at 55°Out: 98.2 mph at 0°Single: 76.2 mph at 17°Home run: 102.9 mph at 29°Out: 105.7 mph at -28°Out: 74.2 mph at 39°Out: 94.3 mph at 22°Out: 88.4 mph at 28°Out: 66.9 mph at -10°Out: 105.3 mph at 5°Single: 73.8 mph at 14°Out: 79.4 mph at 32°Out: 65.9 mph at 9°Single: 90.6 mph at 0°Double: 98.9 mph at 23°Out: 86.6 mph at 58°Out: 83.3 mph at -35°Out: 85.4 mph at -57°Out: 83.0 mph at 53°Out: 93.7 mph at 18°Out: 88.6 mph at -7°Out: 73.1 mph at 11°Out: 85.1 mph at 73°Out: 59.1 mph at -52°Double: 78.1 mph at 57°Out: 98.0 mph at -20°Out: 93.1 mph at 41°Double: 101.2 mph at 16°Out: 86.8 mph at 52°Single: 100.6 mph at 5°Out: 67.3 mph at -23°Single: 69.1 mph at 27°Out: 90.7 mph at 25°
30% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.8%56.4%+0.4
2+ total bases31.2%31.1%+0.1
Home run5.7%5.7%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Miguel Rojas hits
Where they meet

.288 xwOBA for Miguel Rojas in the spots Matt Wilkinson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .313 (-24 points). His best spot against lefties is up-left, and Matt Wilkinson puts 1% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Matt Wilkinson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing28%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing13%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing16%
All · 290 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%31% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters31%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 168 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%28% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters28%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 79 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%23% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters23%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Slider · 30 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Miguel Rojas · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .466 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.309xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .415 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 12 pitches seen.331xwOBA .186 shrunk (raw .096 on 9 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.186xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .267 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.293xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .369 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 13 pitches seen.380xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .468 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 26 pitches seen.395xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .446 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.308xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .161 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.280xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .206 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 13 pitches seen.265xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .303 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 12 pitches seen.302xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .034 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 37 pitches seen.284xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .305 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 65 pitches seen.296xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .208 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 50 pitches seen.235
vs LHP · 296 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 16%27%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 29%11%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 48%39%Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 34%33%
vs LHP · 296 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 63%78%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 92% of 13 pitches · league 64%92%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 67%72%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 65% of 26 pitches · league 72%65%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 59%55%Swings at 47% of 17 pitches · league 68%47%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 66%85%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 30%58%Swings at 24% of 37 pitches · league 26%24%Swings at 28% of 65 pitches · league 31%28%Swings at 42% of 50 pitches · league 41%42%
vs LHP · 296 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Miguel Rojas against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.380.3685.9%15.8%266About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.323.31125.6%30.6%104About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.332.32016.4%27.0%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.354.34210.4%26.2%104About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Miguel Rojas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.250.250.375.269.21212.5%0.0%18.2%96.3105.60.0%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1324.174.208.391.292.26612.5%4.2%20.6%90.9105.65.0%35.0%35.0%
Last 30 G2850.239.280.435.322.28310.0%6.0%15.0%88.5106.12.4%35.7%38.1%
90 days4485.282.306.474.339.2819.4%4.7%14.3%87.7106.12.7%35.6%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.3680.0%0.0%0.0%72.072.00.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G49.333.333.333.300.28511.1%0.0%15.0%83.8105.70.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G816.200.250.200.212.29812.5%6.2%9.1%81.9105.70.0%23.1%46.2%
90 days1629.222.241.259.222.30413.8%3.4%12.2%81.7105.74.2%29.2%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.222.222.333.239.22911.1%0.0%16.7%93.3105.60.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1533.219.242.375.294.27112.1%3.0%18.5%88.8105.73.6%32.1%39.3%
Last 30 G3066.230.273.377.295.28610.6%6.1%13.3%86.9106.11.8%32.7%40.0%
90 days47114.267.289.419.310.28710.5%4.4%13.8%86.2106.13.1%34.0%40.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 13%
Miguel Rojas · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating31Below average
Last 100 pitches23trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .297running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker100.095.138.118Out
Sep 23LHPSinker100.784.224.246Out
Sep 20LHPFastball91.4105.63.508Double
Sep 20LHPFastball94.792.9-24.068Out
Sep 19LHPFastball90.6104.35.543Single
Sep 19RHPFastball93.672.014.368Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup87.1101.3-10.205Out
Sep 18LHPFastball93.590.855.008Out
Sep 17RHPSinker90.198.20.353Out
Sep 17RHPSlider82.576.217.847Single
Sep 17LHPSinker94.5102.9291.531Home run
Sep 17RHPSinker96.7105.7-28.094Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24100000
Sep 23100000
Sep 20312001
Sep 19211000
Sep 18200000
Sep 17525100
Sep 16200010
Sep 14300000
Sep 13311001
Sep 11100000

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.4%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%22.2%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%18.3%
Miguel Rojas bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Miguel Rojas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%27.7%41.4%
Whiff%12.9%22.0%
Contact%87.1%78.0%
Chase%40.4%40.7%
wOBA.285.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.1%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.318
K%13.9%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%8.7%
Barrel%2.9%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV86.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

86 PA
wOBA.334
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/1000.43
Hard-hit%30.0%
K%10.9%
BB%5.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD6 days' rest
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.5%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 8.0%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.4%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 28% (red bars) · under: 72%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Miguel Rojas: every projection we've made →