MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 1Shohei Ohtani
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.391wOBA vs LHP.395xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .365 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .319 vs league .302 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .307 vs league .290 (hitter's edge).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .340 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Shohei Ohtani's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Shohei Ohtani's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.2 mph at 29°Single: 98.6 mph at 16°Double: 106.8 mph at 18°Out: 103.9 mph at 37°Out: 103.4 mph at 36°Single: 99.0 mph at 8°Out: 89.2 mph at 38°Single: 78.0 mph at 25°Out: 60.6 mph at -40°Out: 95.8 mph at 11°Out: 84.0 mph at -5°Out: 107.5 mph at -3°Out: 85.8 mph at -11°Single: 66.2 mph at 32°Out: 61.8 mph at 18°Out: 104.7 mph at -5°Out: 107.7 mph at -1°Out: 83.7 mph at 37°Out: 81.2 mph at -15°Single: 75.9 mph at 23°Out: 106.6 mph at 54°Out: 90.8 mph at 2°Double: 106.7 mph at 10°Out: 87.9 mph at 24°Out: 81.0 mph at -8°Out: 92.3 mph at -20°Triple: 102.6 mph at 29°Out: 102.7 mph at -14°Out: 93.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.6 mph at -59°Out: 104.4 mph at -22°Single: 112.9 mph at 8°Out: 102.5 mph at -13°Out: 76.4 mph at -2°Out: 72.9 mph at -5°Home run: 105.6 mph at 33°Out: 104.3 mph at 2°Out: 76.9 mph at 0°Home run: 105.5 mph at 26°Single: 94.1 mph at -7°
50% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.0%66.8%+0.2
2+ total bases45.1%46.6%-1.5
Home run19.5%23.2%-3.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-2.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-3.0
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-3.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Shohei Ohtani against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.365.34720.0%12.7%24About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.319.30245.5%33.3%8About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.307.29035.0%28.5%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.340.32340.3%29.0%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Shohei Ohtani · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.333.750.333.550.51725.0%37.5%54.5%99.099.00.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1323.118.348.176.276.33530.4%17.4%33.3%89.6107.50.0%50.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2552.222.327.422.347.37626.9%9.6%33.3%89.1111.712.9%41.9%35.5%
90 days45104.272.346.565.399.41126.0%8.7%35.2%90.8112.616.9%46.2%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.200.250.267.234.34143.8%6.2%44.4%92.3106.850.0%62.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1448.171.292.244.255.33935.4%14.6%35.8%93.1112.920.8%50.0%41.7%
Last 30 G2584.240.321.467.345.36329.8%10.7%31.7%93.5112.916.3%49.0%42.9%
90 days50159.248.333.440.350.37525.8%11.3%33.2%93.8112.914.3%53.1%39.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 98 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.222.417.278.340.39937.5%16.7%46.8%93.1106.844.4%66.7%55.6%
Last 15 G1571.155.310.224.262.33733.8%15.5%35.2%92.0112.914.7%50.0%41.2%
Last 30 G30136.233.324.450.346.36828.7%10.3%32.2%91.8112.915.0%46.2%40.0%
90 days58263.258.338.489.370.39025.9%10.3%33.9%92.6112.915.3%50.3%39.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 163 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
Shohei Ohtani · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.363 / .388running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.798.229.654Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.398.616.623Single
Sep 24RHPFastball102.6106.818.761Double
Sep 24RHPFastball95.6103.9371.034Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.0103.436.959Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.099.08.580Single
Sep 7RHPFastball98.689.238.022Out
Sep 1RHPChangeup87.178.025.582Single
Sep 1RHPChangeup88.560.6-40.117Out
Aug 30LHPChangeup90.595.811.804Out
Aug 30RHPSlider86.284.0-5.189Out
Aug 30LHPSinker94.6107.5-3.342Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24523001
Sep 23511012
Sep 7400012
Sep 2600014
Sep 1411010
Aug 30500002
Aug 29411001
Aug 28500012
Aug 27400002
Aug 26523001

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Shohei Ohtani bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Shohei Ohtani with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.4%44.1%
Whiff%25.5%22.7%
Contact%74.5%77.3%
Chase%38.5%38.1%
wOBA.231.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.1%19.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.389
K%25.8%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%15.8%
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%30.7%
Avg EV92.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

103 PA
wOBA.391
xwOBA vs this mix.395against pitches like his
RV/1000.98
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%25.1%
BB%10.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Shohei Ohtani: every projection we've made →