MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 4Teoscar Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.411wOBA vs LHP.388xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .378 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .320 vs league .299 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .336 vs league .315 (hitter's edge).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .355 vs league .334 (hitter's edge).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Teoscar Hernández's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Teoscar Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 72.1 mph at 10°Single: 104.0 mph at 11°Single: 96.8 mph at -2°Out: 61.0 mph at 49°Single: 83.3 mph at 4°Out: 93.5 mph at 37°Single: 95.3 mph at 6°Single: 100.3 mph at -2°Out: 80.6 mph at 48°Single: 106.3 mph at 12°Out: 63.0 mph at -53°Out: 99.1 mph at -9°Single: 89.0 mph at 14°Single: 107.5 mph at 13°Out: 64.8 mph at -21°Out: 70.6 mph at -17°Out: 75.3 mph at -2°Single: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 97.0 mph at 41°Out: 86.7 mph at 5°Out: 80.6 mph at 58°Home run: 109.3 mph at 21°Out: 82.2 mph at 25°Home run: 104.2 mph at 25°Out: 104.1 mph at -21°Out: 106.9 mph at -2°Out: 103.0 mph at -2°Out: 85.1 mph at 31°Out: 99.3 mph at 39°Out: 81.5 mph at 73°Single: 76.2 mph at 21°Single: 79.5 mph at 11°Single: 78.4 mph at 19°Triple: 93.0 mph at 17°Single: 98.4 mph at -11°Home run: 112.6 mph at 23°Single: 108.7 mph at 8°Out: 105.8 mph at 39°Single: 86.8 mph at 1°Out: 92.4 mph at 56°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.8%63.4%+1.5
2+ total bases38.2%37.5%+0.7
Home run12.9%13.6%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.3
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Teoscar Hernández against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.378.35722.6%16.8%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.320.29942.7%32.7%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.336.31531.2%25.1%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.355.33431.0%24.2%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Teoscar Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.375.338.21237.5%0.0%33.3%89.4104.00.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1126.455.538.818.576.49723.1%15.4%32.6%91.7112.612.5%43.8%56.2%
Last 30 G2251.381.490.690.502.49121.6%17.6%31.9%93.4112.622.6%51.6%54.8%
90 days47102.341.402.593.434.41021.6%9.8%32.0%92.5112.614.3%47.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.333.331.26538.5%0.0%19.4%86.9106.30.0%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1537.273.351.364.324.28832.4%8.1%31.4%89.4109.34.8%52.4%28.6%
Last 30 G2977.286.351.343.328.29133.8%6.5%31.4%89.3110.12.3%47.7%31.8%
90 days67175.219.286.306.274.27731.4%7.4%32.3%89.1110.14.8%43.8%29.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 105 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.350.381.350.333.24538.1%0.0%25.0%87.9106.30.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1563.345.429.545.426.37228.6%11.1%31.9%90.4112.68.1%48.6%40.5%
Last 30 G30128.321.406.473.396.37028.9%10.9%31.6%91.0112.610.7%49.3%41.3%
90 days71277.263.329.410.332.32627.8%8.3%32.2%90.5112.68.6%45.1%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
Teoscar Hernández · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating63Average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .329results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker93.772.110.237Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.2104.011.911Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.696.8-2.413Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup90.661.049.080Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.983.34.280Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup89.693.537.111Out
Sep 20RHPSlider89.695.36.484Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.5100.3-2.343Single
Sep 20LHPChangeup86.280.648.026Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.1106.312.965Single
Sep 19RHPSlider86.863.0-53.274Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball82.399.1-9.291Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400003
Sep 23433001
Sep 22411001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19511002
Sep 18522001
Sep 17511011
Sep 16500012
Sep 15414111
Sep 14414111

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Teoscar Hernández bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Teoscar Hernández with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%41.6%
Whiff%24.1%21.7%
Contact%75.9%78.3%
Chase%42.7%40.0%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.328
K%27.2%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%15.1%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%28.7%
Avg EV90.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.411
xwOBA vs this mix.388against pitches like his
RV/1001.74
Hard-hit%31.3%
K%22.4%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Teoscar Hernández: every projection we've made →