MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 6Teoscar Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.412wOBA vs LHP.389xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
2.7projected K18%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .414 vs league .368 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .357 vs league .311 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .365 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Teoscar Hernández: wOBA .388 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Teoscar Hernández's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Teoscar Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.6 mph at 1°Home run: 109.2 mph at 27°Out: 85.8 mph at 59°Single: 72.1 mph at 10°Single: 104.0 mph at 11°Single: 96.8 mph at -2°Out: 61.0 mph at 49°Single: 83.3 mph at 4°Out: 93.5 mph at 37°Single: 95.3 mph at 6°Single: 100.3 mph at -2°Out: 80.6 mph at 48°Single: 106.3 mph at 12°Out: 63.0 mph at -53°Out: 99.1 mph at -9°Single: 89.0 mph at 14°Single: 107.5 mph at 13°Out: 64.8 mph at -21°Out: 70.6 mph at -17°Out: 75.3 mph at -2°Single: 95.3 mph at -2°Out: 97.0 mph at 41°Out: 86.7 mph at 5°Out: 80.6 mph at 58°Home run: 109.3 mph at 21°Out: 82.2 mph at 25°Home run: 104.2 mph at 25°Out: 104.1 mph at -21°Out: 106.9 mph at -2°Out: 103.0 mph at -2°Out: 85.1 mph at 31°Out: 99.3 mph at 39°Out: 81.5 mph at 73°Single: 76.2 mph at 21°Single: 79.5 mph at 11°Single: 78.4 mph at 19°Triple: 93.0 mph at 17°Single: 98.4 mph at -11°Home run: 112.6 mph at 23°Single: 108.7 mph at 8°
48% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.5%61.3%+0.3
2+ total bases37.1%37.6%-0.4
Home run12.8%13.7%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.2
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Teoscar Hernández hits
Where they meet

.320 xwOBA for Teoscar Hernández in the spots Matt Wilkinson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .313 (+8 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Matt Wilkinson puts 2% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Matt Wilkinson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing28%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing13%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing16%
All · 290 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%31% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters31%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 168 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%28% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters28%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 79 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%23% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters23%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Slider · 30 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Teoscar Hernández · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .438 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 13 pitches seen.300xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .071 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.251xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .526 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.275xwOBA .584 shrunk (raw .951 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 22 pitches seen.584xwOBA .448 shrunk (raw .573 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.448xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .243 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 26 pitches seen.294xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .378 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.294xwOBA .435 shrunk (raw .520 on 12 PA) · league .350 · 20 pitches seen.435xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .045 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.236xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .384 on 13 PA) · league .302 · 33 pitches seen.345xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .258 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 50 pitches seen.311xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .513 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 67 pitches seen.405xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .165 on 13 PA) · league .257 · 78 pitches seen.209
vs LHP · 388 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 21%28%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 11%38%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 14%19%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 16%31%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 25%27%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 50% of 22 swings · league 48%50%Whiff 56% of 27 swings · league 34%56%
vs LHP · 388 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 63%62%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 71%86%Swings at 25% of 12 pitches · league 64%25%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 67%77%Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 62% of 26 pitches · league 72%62%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 59%73%Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 66%87%Swings at 67% of 33 pitches · league 30%67%Swings at 20% of 50 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 33% of 67 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 35% of 78 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 388 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Teoscar Hernández against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.414.36818.7%15.8%232Hits these better than most
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.357.31140.2%30.6%120Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.365.32033.2%27.0%86Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.388.34230.7%26.2%115Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Teoscar Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.375.338.21237.5%0.0%33.3%89.4104.00.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1023.400.478.650.483.40826.1%13.0%34.9%89.0107.57.1%35.7%50.0%
Last 30 G2148.400.500.725.519.50220.8%16.7%32.9%93.9112.623.3%53.3%53.3%
90 days47102.341.402.593.434.41021.6%9.8%32.0%92.5112.614.3%47.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.364.417.636.450.36633.3%0.0%26.7%89.9109.214.3%42.9%14.3%
Last 15 G1540.278.350.444.350.32830.0%7.5%31.6%90.3109.38.3%50.0%29.2%
Last 30 G2979.278.342.375.334.30332.9%6.3%32.3%89.5110.14.3%45.7%30.4%
90 days68179.220.285.323.279.28531.3%7.3%32.4%89.3110.15.6%43.5%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 108 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.368.400.526.405.30435.0%0.0%29.4%89.7109.28.3%41.7%25.0%
Last 15 G1563.321.397.518.398.35728.6%9.5%32.8%89.8109.37.9%44.7%36.8%
Last 30 G30127.321.402.500.403.37728.3%10.2%32.5%91.3112.611.8%48.7%39.5%
90 days72281.263.327.420.335.33027.8%8.2%32.2%90.6112.69.0%44.9%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
Teoscar Hernández · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating68Above average
Last 100 pitches33trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.337 / .333results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter81.994.61.419Out
Sep 25RHPFastball90.4109.2272.030Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball94.685.859.023Out
Sep 23LHPSinker93.772.110.237Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.2104.011.911Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.696.8-2.413Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup90.661.049.080Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.983.34.280Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup89.693.537.111Out
Sep 20RHPSlider89.695.36.484Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.5100.3-2.343Single
Sep 20LHPChangeup86.280.648.026Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414101
Sep 24400003
Sep 23433001
Sep 22411001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19511002
Sep 18522001
Sep 17511011
Sep 16500012
Sep 15414111

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.4%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%22.2%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%18.3%
Teoscar Hernández bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Teoscar Hernández with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.8%41.4%
Whiff%27.3%22.0%
Contact%72.7%78.0%
Chase%43.0%40.7%
wOBA.240.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.330
K%27.2%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%15.3%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%28.7%
Avg EV90.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.412
xwOBA vs this mix.389against pitches like his
RV/1001.75
Hard-hit%31.3%
K%22.4%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD6 days' rest
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.5%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 8.0%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.4%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 28% (red bars) · under: 72%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Teoscar Hernández: every projection we've made →