MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 9Tommy Edman
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedCold
.352wOBA vs LHP.307xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Tommy Edman: wOBA .364 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Tommy Edman: wOBA .306 vs league .299 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Tommy Edman: wOBA .322 vs league .315 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Tommy Edman: wOBA .341 vs league .334 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tommy Edman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tommy Edman's last 40 balls in playHit (4)Out (36)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 77.2 mph at 32°Out: 74.1 mph at -14°Out: 92.0 mph at 35°Out: 99.5 mph at -2°Out: 99.1 mph at 18°Out: 88.2 mph at 61°Home run: 106.8 mph at 19°Out: 73.3 mph at 80°Out: 87.6 mph at 31°Out: 86.1 mph at 43°Home run: 102.8 mph at 26°Out: 61.4 mph at 68°Out: 85.1 mph at 41°Single: 94.9 mph at 13°Out: 92.9 mph at 4°Out: 33.1 mph at -37°Out: 74.2 mph at 52°Out: 69.7 mph at -17°Out: 82.7 mph at -16°Out: 77.3 mph at 44°Out: 81.9 mph at -8°Out: 94.6 mph at 46°Single: 101.5 mph at 3°Out: 95.5 mph at -17°Out: 67.5 mph at -35°Out: 79.4 mph at 49°Out: 64.9 mph at 1°Out: 94.1 mph at 36°Out: 96.4 mph at -12°Out: 69.8 mph at -17°Out: 66.5 mph at 1°Out: 88.5 mph at 32°Out: 93.7 mph at 0°Out: 83.4 mph at -56°Out: 48.9 mph at 25°Out: 76.9 mph at -33°Out: 68.4 mph at -21°Out: 81.7 mph at -3°Out: 99.3 mph at 22°Out: 100.9 mph at 1°
23% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot10% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.9%53.0%-0.1
2+ total bases26.6%27.4%-0.8
Home run6.2%7.3%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.5
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Tommy Edman against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.364.35718.9%16.8%24About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.306.29935.4%32.7%10About league average vs these
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.322.31530.3%25.1%8About league average vs these
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.341.33426.8%24.2%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tommy Edman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.833.483.3700.0%0.0%12.5%92.1106.816.7%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1119.118.211.294.239.23615.8%5.3%24.0%85.8106.87.7%15.4%15.4%
Last 30 G2044.211.318.342.349.29220.5%4.5%31.2%87.5108.53.6%25.0%25.0%
90 days4398.214.327.393.361.30925.5%7.1%27.6%86.9108.56.9%29.3%27.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.083.143.333.243.23828.6%7.1%30.4%85.4102.811.1%22.2%44.4%
Last 15 G1540.062.205.156.205.23725.0%10.0%25.7%79.8102.84.2%20.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2984.169.277.310.278.27920.2%8.3%20.8%84.1103.85.4%28.6%39.3%
90 days68192.228.296.345.298.28519.3%5.2%19.5%85.7108.44.3%33.3%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.167.200.500.315.27820.0%5.0%25.8%88.1106.813.3%26.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1559.082.207.204.216.23722.0%8.5%25.3%81.9106.85.4%18.9%21.6%
Last 30 G30128.183.291.321.302.28320.3%7.0%24.0%85.2108.54.8%27.4%34.5%
90 days73290.224.307.361.320.29321.4%5.9%22.1%86.1108.55.1%32.1%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 196 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
Tommy Edman · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating38Below average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .304results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.577.232.183Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.374.1-14.064Out
Sep 23LHPSinker92.392.035.063Out
Sep 23LHPSinker101.399.5-2.343Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.999.118.393Sac fly
Sep 22RHPChangeup84.988.261.008Out
Sep 22LHPSinker96.7106.819.884Home run
Sep 20LHPFastball90.173.380.000Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.887.631.039Out
Sep 20LHPFastball91.286.143.006Out
Sep 20RHPCutter93.3102.8261.480Home run
Sep 19RHPFastball94.861.468.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23400001
Sep 22414111
Sep 20414100
Sep 19411000
Sep 18200002
Sep 17600001
Sep 16500011
Sep 15411000
Sep 14400001

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Tommy Edman bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Tommy Edman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.7%41.6%
Whiff%27.0%21.7%
Contact%73.0%78.3%
Chase%42.1%40.0%
wOBA.242.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.5%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%21.0%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%3.5%
Hard-hit%22.8%
Avg EV86.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

98 PA
wOBA.352
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/1001.14
Hard-hit%18.7%
K%24.8%
BB%6.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tommy Edman: every projection we've made →