MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 8Lucas Spence
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · OAKTBD
Stable
3.8projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Lucas Spence's last 29 balls in playHit (9)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 56.4 mph at 9°Out: 102.0 mph at 32°Out: 96.2 mph at 29°Home run: 105.8 mph at 24°Home run: 96.9 mph at 30°Home run: 101.8 mph at 24°Out: 50.8 mph at 55°Single: 92.1 mph at -14°Out: 92.6 mph at -14°Out: 85.0 mph at -38°Out: 103.6 mph at 16°Out: 104.8 mph at -5°Out: 88.0 mph at 23°Out: 86.3 mph at -11°Single: 91.4 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 52°Out: 71.6 mph at -28°Out: 90.0 mph at -30°Double: 98.0 mph at 22°Out: 106.9 mph at 6°Out: 107.3 mph at -6°Out: 101.1 mph at 33°Out: 82.4 mph at -40°Single: 79.7 mph at 18°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 84.2 mph at 57°Out: 75.9 mph at 9°Out: 96.7 mph at 39°Single: 103.7 mph at -21°
48% hit 95+ mph41% in the sweet spot31% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%52.5%+3.0
2+ total bases35.0%31.6%+3.3
Home run13.8%11.7%+2.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+3.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Lucas Spence hits
Lucas Spence · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .046 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 11 pitches seen.228xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .398 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 6 pitches seen.314xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 4 pitches seen.243xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .129 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 9 pitches seen.326xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .356 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 7 pitches seen.377xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .005 on 1 PA) · league .321 · 2 pitches seen.297xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .983 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.404xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .146 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 14 pitches seen.310xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .274 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 6 pitches seen.287xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 23 pitches seen.348xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .154 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 26 pitches seen.219xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .531 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.338
vs RHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 20%25%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 10%38%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 13%38%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 100% of 3 swings · league 28%100%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 24%100%Whiff 58% of 12 swings · league 32%58%Whiff 60% of 10 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 62%55%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 70%89%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 60%83%Swings at 13% of 23 pitches · league 24%13%Swings at 17% of 6 pitches · league 34%17%Swings at 46% of 26 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 39% of 26 pitches · league 32%39%
vs RHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lucas Spence · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.400.4551.300.691.40436.4%9.1%42.9%90.6105.833.3%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Last 30 G1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
90 days1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 26%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.33633.3%16.7%50.0%83.7102.033.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
90 days1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.867.488.38035.3%11.8%44.8%88.3105.833.3%55.6%66.7%
Last 15 G1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
Last 30 G1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
90 days1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 10%
FormNormal
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches53trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.290 / .312running 22 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball90.256.49.115Out
Sep 25LHPFastball90.3102.0321.083Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.196.229.398Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.8105.8241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.596.930.461Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.1101.8241.020Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball96.450.855.005Out
Jul 31RHPOffspeed54.492.1-14.135Single
Jul 29LHPSinker88.592.6-14.117Out
Jul 27RHPChangeup90.485.0-38.055Out
Jul 27RHPSplitter87.5103.616.591Out
Jul 27RHPSlider89.7104.8-5.382Fielder's choice
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 244312300
Sep 23400012
Jul 31111000
Jul 29400012
Jul 28100001
Jul 27400001
Jul 25400002
Jul 24511003
Jul 22300001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lucas Spence: every projection we've made →