MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 1Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.392wOBA vs RHP.387xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .376 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .367 vs league .338 (hitter's edge).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .378 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .298 vs league .269 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .316 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Fernando Tatis Jr.: wOBA .345 vs league .316 (hitter's edge).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.8 mph at 69°Double: 112.2 mph at 17°Single: 95.9 mph at -11°Single: 102.3 mph at 1°Single: 101.7 mph at 0°Single: 62.7 mph at -55°Double: 114.3 mph at 9°Out: 89.6 mph at -23°Single: 97.9 mph at 9°Out: 98.4 mph at 25°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 65.7 mph at 20°Out: 94.0 mph at -25°Home run: 111.1 mph at 31°Out: 75.6 mph at 57°Home run: 107.4 mph at 30°Out: 92.9 mph at 34°Out: 87.2 mph at -40°Single: 98.3 mph at 14°Out: 109.7 mph at 5°Double: 107.9 mph at 21°Out: 74.5 mph at -32°Out: 68.3 mph at -28°Out: 75.8 mph at -15°Out: 79.9 mph at 35°Out: 88.9 mph at -29°Out: 91.2 mph at -34°Out: 99.7 mph at 51°Out: 91.4 mph at -3°Home run: 106.5 mph at 29°Out: 96.5 mph at 38°Home run: 111.1 mph at 35°Out: 86.0 mph at 3°Out: 94.8 mph at 32°Single: 103.2 mph at -18°Single: 111.1 mph at 5°Single: 104.7 mph at -5°Single: 68.2 mph at -74°Out: 72.8 mph at -27°Home run: 112.0 mph at 27°
53% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit74.0%69.7%+4.3
2+ total bases49.8%46.1%+3.7
Home run21.2%20.1%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Fernando Tatis Jr. hits
Fernando Tatis Jr. · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .526 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.375xwOBA .465 shrunk (raw .577 on 17 PA) · league .307 · 39 pitches seen.465xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .346 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 39 pitches seen.314xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .555 on 9 PA) · league .342 · 37 pitches seen.433xwOBA .545 shrunk (raw .613 on 28 PA) · league .386 · 67 pitches seen.545xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .340 on 26 PA) · league .321 · 62 pitches seen.334xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .540 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.407xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .366 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 48 pitches seen.360xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .290 on 28 PA) · league .292 · 68 pitches seen.291xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .409 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 107 pitches seen.396xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .328 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.306xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .324 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 74 pitches seen.296xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .218 on 43 PA) · league .274 · 236 pitches seen.230
vs RHP · 913 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 22%11%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 20%10%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 19%21%Whiff 4% of 23 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 4% of 51 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 10% of 41 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 14% of 43 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 28%38%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 24%19%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 32%9%Whiff 59% of 85 swings · league 49%59%
vs RHP · 913 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 53% of 34 pitches · league 62%53%Swings at 80% of 39 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 62% of 37 pitches · league 70%62%Swings at 76% of 67 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 66% of 62 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 65%43%Swings at 56% of 48 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 63% of 68 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 20% of 107 pitches · league 24%20%Swings at 37% of 74 pitches · league 34%37%Swings at 30% of 74 pitches · league 40%30%Swings at 36% of 236 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 913 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Fernando Tatis Jr. against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.376.34716.9%19.3%71About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.367.33819.3%20.1%39About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.378.34910.3%11.2%48About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.298.26930.5%33.5%28About league average vs these
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.316.28624.8%27.5%16About league average vs these
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.345.31622.9%24.9%46About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Fernando Tatis Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.471.500.765.539.45922.2%5.6%23.3%93.4114.315.4%61.5%53.8%
Last 15 G1558.346.414.673.476.42022.4%6.9%21.9%93.7114.315.4%51.3%33.3%
Last 30 G29101.305.347.600.420.40922.8%4.0%21.2%94.2115.118.1%56.9%38.9%
90 days75259.298.359.549.407.39218.9%6.9%21.7%93.8115.713.4%54.0%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.500.500.500.450.2670.0%0.0%0.0%95.7101.70.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G712.556.667.889.642.5018.3%25.0%11.8%95.0108.312.5%50.0%12.5%
Last 30 G1834.345.441.655.465.4428.8%14.7%15.1%87.6108.611.5%50.0%30.8%
90 days4192.299.413.662.452.44812.0%16.3%17.8%91.8113.215.2%54.5%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.474.500.737.530.43920.0%5.0%21.9%93.7114.313.3%60.0%46.7%
Last 15 G1570.377.457.705.505.43420.0%10.0%20.5%93.9114.314.9%51.1%29.8%
Last 30 G30135.315.370.613.431.41819.3%6.7%19.8%92.5115.116.3%55.1%36.7%
90 days78351.298.373.577.419.40717.1%9.4%20.7%93.3115.713.8%54.2%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 253 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
Fernando Tatis Jr. · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.410 / .425results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases9/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.384.869.010Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.8112.2171.013Double
Sep 25RHPSinker94.895.9-11.218Single
Sep 24RHPSinker95.5102.31.456Single
Sep 24LHPCutter93.7101.70.472Single
Sep 23RHPSlider84.362.7-55.302Single
Sep 23RHPCutter90.7114.39.824Double
Sep 23LHPFastball94.289.6-23.062Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.297.99.590Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.598.425.578Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.098.711.855Single
Sep 20RHPCutter90.365.720.553Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25323000
Sep 24422011
Sep 23534001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20414100
Sep 19514101
Sep 18511012
Sep 17512011
Sep 16500001
Sep 15514101

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Fernando Tatis Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Fernando Tatis Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.9%42.4%
Whiff%21.7%22.2%
Contact%78.3%77.8%
Chase%36.5%39.9%
wOBA.267.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.399
K%17.5%
BB%9.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Barrel%9.4%
Hard-hit%38.3%
Avg EV93.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

261 PA
wOBA.392
xwOBA vs this mix.387against pitches like his
RV/1001.61
Hard-hit%38.1%
K%19.0%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Fernando Tatis Jr.: every projection we've made →