ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026

The game

ARI runs4.7win 53%

SD runs4.4win 47%

Total9.1book line 7.5

No run, 1st inning50%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +1.2% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 95 · HR 106 100 = average
Umpire: Brennan Miller
Schedule: ARI traveled in; SD traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

ARI starter

Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD

3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%15.6%

BB%3.6%

Whiff%9.4%

Velo89.2

BTB Stuff95

Location109

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball30%9893.15.0%

Changeup19%8287.011.3%

Sinker14%8892.96.4%

Sweeper13%9884.218.7%

Curveball12%10082.710.6%

Cutter11%10990.410.6%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	64	17%	11%	17%	.239
Sep 12	99	23%	17%	45%	.402
Sep 5	97	15%	13%	30%	.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Fernando Tatis Jr.19%

2Dustin Harris15%

3Manny Machado20%

4Ty France18%

5Jackson Merrill22%

6Xander Bogaerts20%

7Luis Campusano22%

8Jake Cronenworth25%

9Samad Taylor25%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

SD starter

Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI

3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings

Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%17.1%

BB%7.4%

Whiff%8.4%

Velo89.7

BTB Stuff92

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball35%10193.25.5%

Slider29%9087.37.8%

Splitter22%8087.815.2%

Sinker8%9493.78.8%

Sweeper4%8981.04.2%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	74	11%	8%	17%	.568
Sep 14	75	0%	3%	25%	.417
Sep 8	90	32%	14%	46%	.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Lars Nootbaar20%

2Ketel Marte16%

3Gabriel Moreno14%

4Geraldo Perdomo15%

5Corbin Carroll23%

6Nolan Arenado20%

7Tim Tawa24%

8Pavin Smith22%

9Jordan Lawlar31%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineuppitch-mix battle

Casey Mize's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Casey Mize's pitches					ARI lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	35%	93.2	101	5.5%	0.66	.339	7.6%	27.9%	+0.29
Slider	29%	87.3	90	7.8%	0.81	.349	11.3%	27.5%	+0.50
Splitter	22%	87.8	80	15.2%	-1.07	.302	16.1%	23.7%	-0.16
Sinker	8%	93.7	94	8.8%	-3.49	.342	3.8%	32.0%	+0.47
Sweeper	4%	81.0	89	4.2%	-7.59	.343	13.0%	26.9%	+0.41

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineuppitch-mix battle

Brandon Pfaadt's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Brandon Pfaadt's pitches					SD lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	30%	93.1	98	5.0%	2.35	.385	8.7%	32.4%	+0.62
Changeup	19%	87.0	82	11.3%	1.07	.274	15.0%	21.0%	-0.72
Sinker	14%	92.9	88	6.4%	1.02	.377	5.5%	31.1%	+0.45
Sweeper	13%	84.2	98	18.7%	1.77	.282	14.2%	18.5%	-0.55
Curveball	12%	82.7	100	10.6%	-0.59	.351	14.2%	20.7%	+0.31
Cutter	11%	90.4	109	10.6%	1.97	.349	10.1%	30.0%	-0.07

Bullpens

Diamondbacks bullpen#4 of 30

K%24.5%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%15.9%

SwStr%11.0%

wOBA allowed.280

Arms available20 / 20

Pitched yesterday: Rodriguez, Clarke, Santana, Ginkel.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Padres bullpen#6 of 30

K%26.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%17.5%

SwStr%13.7%

wOBA allowed.307

Arms available11 / 14

Pitched yesterday: Pivetta, Matsui (Back-to-Back), Miller (Back-to-Back), Morejon (Back-to-Back), Adam.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+3 pts

Changeup+2 pts

Sweeper+7 pts

Curveball+2 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	30%	34%	11.9%	11.2%	18.0%
Changeup	19%	21%	21.3%	14.1%	18.6%
Sweeper	13%	20%	25.6%	20.5%	19.3%
Curveball	12%	14%	26.7%	17.3%	20.0%
Sinker	14%	9%	7.7%	15.2%	17.0%
Cutter	11%	3%	25.0%	20.0%	17.9%

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+2 pts

Splitter+10 pts

Slider-12 pts

Sweeper+5 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	36%	38%	10.1%	15.1%	18.0%
Splitter	22%	32%	27.9%	16.5%	19.0%
Slider	30%	18%	17.6%	13.3%	21.1%
Sweeper	4%	9%	16.7%	10.0%	19.3%
Sinker	8%	3%	30.0%	27.3%	17.0%

Diamondbacks lineup

Confirmed · facing Casey Mize RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Lars Nootbaar LF · bats L	62.2%	37.9%	11.9%	4.0	+2.7	.324	B	Power	Normal
2	Ketel Marte 2B · bats S	68.3%	41.6%	14.6%	3.9	+1.6	.304	B	Contact	Hot
3	Gabriel Moreno C · bats R	72.0%	43.8%	12.5%	3.8	+3.1	.401	A	Contact	Normal
4	Geraldo Perdomo SS · bats S	66.7%	36.0%	6.8%	3.8	+1.8	.355	A	Contact	Hot
5	Corbin Carroll RF · bats L	61.4%	38.3%	16.3%	3.7	+2.3	.295	A	Power	Hot
6	Nolan Arenado 3B · bats R	63.4%	37.4%	14.1%	3.6	+2.6	.353	Avg	Balanced	Hot
7	Tim Tawa 1B · bats R	61.3%	36.1%	13.6%	3.5	+2.0	.334	B	Power	Normal
8	Pavin Smith DH · bats L	56.0%	31.1%	11.0%	3.4	+1.7	.319	C	Balanced	Hot
9	Jordan Lawlar CF · bats R	54.3%	29.2%	10.1%	3.3	+1.4	.280	F	Balanced	Hot

Padres lineup

Confirmed · facing Brandon Pfaadt RHP