MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 7Luis Campusano
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.334wOBA vs RHP.315xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .351 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .343 vs league .338 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .354 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .273 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .291 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Luis Campusano: wOBA .320 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luis Campusano's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Luis Campusano's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 101.4 mph at 20°Out: 75.2 mph at 9°Out: 45.5 mph at -14°Out: 94.0 mph at 41°Single: 96.5 mph at -2°Out: 88.1 mph at -37°Single: 84.5 mph at 18°Out: 61.7 mph at -10°Out: 76.4 mph at 37°Out: 92.6 mph at 28°Out: 96.6 mph at -8°Out: 85.1 mph at 65°Out: 94.1 mph at 44°Out: 102.3 mph at -20°Single: 79.3 mph at 23°Home run: 98.5 mph at 32°Out: 97.5 mph at -13°Out: 78.8 mph at 65°Out: 103.9 mph at 5°Out: 89.8 mph at -29°Out: 90.3 mph at 55°Out: 80.8 mph at 81°Out: 79.2 mph at 73°Out: 93.7 mph at -18°Out: 66.5 mph at 9°Single: 104.0 mph at 11°Out: 43.7 mph at 12°Out: 88.3 mph at 37°Double: 86.4 mph at 19°Out: 91.3 mph at -32°Out: 95.3 mph at 38°Single: 76.0 mph at 22°Out: 100.2 mph at 3°Out: 78.7 mph at 60°Single: 92.1 mph at 15°Single: 72.0 mph at 40°Out: 61.2 mph at 87°Out: 96.6 mph at 27°Out: 79.9 mph at 55°Home run: 108.1 mph at 32°
30% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.9%54.7%+3.1
2+ total bases31.4%29.5%+2.0
Home run9.5%9.2%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Luis Campusano hits
Luis Campusano · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .230 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.263xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .545 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 23 pitches seen.367xwOBA .183 shrunk (raw .023 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.183xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .193 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.259xwOBA .448 shrunk (raw .480 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 51 pitches seen.448xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .341 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 36 pitches seen.332xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .535 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.365xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .261 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 32 pitches seen.315xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .164 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.237xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .367 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 58 pitches seen.372xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .216 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.253xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .262 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 39 pitches seen.263xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .309 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 179 pitches seen.299
vs RHP · 590 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 22%23%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 20%28%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 12% of 42 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 13%10%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 28%36%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 24%21%Whiff 31% of 16 swings · league 32%31%Whiff 61% of 44 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 590 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 62%65%Swings at 78% of 23 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 66%53%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 70%72%Swings at 82% of 51 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 75% of 36 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 71% of 21 pitches · league 65%71%Swings at 63% of 32 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 19% of 58 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 33% of 43 pitches · league 34%33%Swings at 41% of 39 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 25% of 179 pitches · league 32%25%
vs RHP · 590 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Luis Campusano against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.351.34719.2%19.3%40About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.343.33818.2%20.1%18About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.354.34911.3%11.2%30About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.273.26936.0%33.5%11About league average vs these
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.291.28630.0%27.5%11About league average vs these
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.320.31624.8%24.9%31About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luis Campusano · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.200.294.200.241.26717.6%11.8%27.8%84.4101.40.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1549.182.265.341.270.33618.4%8.2%24.7%85.9108.18.6%25.7%40.0%
Last 30 G2986.208.291.325.282.29622.1%9.3%26.0%86.1108.17.0%26.3%42.1%
90 days50143.250.350.363.332.31221.0%11.9%23.8%87.3108.16.5%31.2%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 25%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.500.5001.250.725.3080.0%0.0%0.0%89.8102.30.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 15 G815.429.467.643.480.3216.7%6.7%10.7%86.1104.00.0%38.5%38.5%
Last 30 G1829.280.379.520.390.32913.8%13.8%17.3%88.0104.94.8%42.9%33.3%
90 days2644.297.409.459.386.35115.9%15.9%19.2%88.9104.93.3%46.7%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.263.333.421.333.27514.3%9.5%23.3%85.7102.30.0%31.2%37.5%
Last 15 G1564.241.312.414.320.33315.6%7.8%21.6%86.0108.16.2%29.2%39.6%
Last 30 G30115.225.313.373.309.30420.0%10.4%24.0%86.6108.16.4%30.8%39.7%
90 days52187.261.364.385.345.32119.8%12.8%22.9%87.7108.15.7%35.0%39.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 123 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 25%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 16%
Luis Campusano · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.8101.420.555Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.675.29.310Double play
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.145.5-14.140Out
Sep 25RHPSlider89.994.041.051Out
Sep 22LHPFastball97.096.5-2.281Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.588.1-37.037Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.284.518.885Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball81.161.7-10.071Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball80.376.437.082Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.392.628.170Out
Sep 17RHPFastball91.496.6-8.202Out
Sep 17RHPFastball94.485.165.012Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 22422000
Sep 19500021
Sep 17400002
Sep 15425100
Sep 14500002
Sep 13400000
Sep 12511001
Sep 11512011
Sep 9511010

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Luis Campusano bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis Campusano with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.8%42.4%
Whiff%21.0%22.2%
Contact%79.0%77.8%
Chase%34.4%39.9%
wOBA.224.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%22.1%
BB%12.9%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV88.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

139 PA
wOBA.334
xwOBA vs this mix.315against pitches like his
RV/1000.18
Hard-hit%21.0%
K%21.6%
BB%12.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis Campusano: every projection we've made →