MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 9Samad Taylor
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.356wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .354 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .345 vs league .338 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .356 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .275 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .293 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .323 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Samad Taylor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Samad Taylor's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.8 mph at 67°Out: 100.4 mph at 4°Out: 98.5 mph at 9°Out: 98.7 mph at 20°Out: 28.3 mph at -25°Out: 66.4 mph at -7°Out: 88.8 mph at -19°Out: 91.0 mph at 48°Single: 76.2 mph at -59°Double: 79.9 mph at -6°Single: 91.7 mph at 9°Out: 102.7 mph at 25°Home run: 104.2 mph at 36°Out: 82.5 mph at -35°Single: 97.3 mph at 18°Single: 47.6 mph at -83°Single: 86.6 mph at 4°Double: 88.3 mph at -5°Out: 91.6 mph at 29°Single: 102.5 mph at 6°Out: 90.7 mph at 11°Single: 77.2 mph at 23°Out: 81.4 mph at 42°Out: 96.7 mph at 43°Out: 31.8 mph at -41°Out: 86.8 mph at 0°Single: 71.4 mph at 27°Out: 86.2 mph at 55°Single: 36.1 mph at -4°Out: 86.3 mph at 56°Out: 90.5 mph at -22°Out: 83.3 mph at 71°Out: 100.0 mph at 20°Single: 90.7 mph at 11°Single: 34.1 mph at -55°Out: 85.8 mph at 35°Double: 96.2 mph at 1°Out: 53.6 mph at -70°Out: 98.3 mph at 38°Out: 47.9 mph at -78°
28% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.7%53.3%+3.4
2+ total bases28.6%26.6%+2.1
Home run8.2%7.9%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Samad Taylor hits
Samad Taylor · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .735 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 5 pitches seen.309xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .528 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.324xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .208 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.255xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .486 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 16 pitches seen.384xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .457 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 19 pitches seen.414xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .440 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 22 pitches seen.365xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .032 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.287xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .200 on 5 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.307xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .203 on 6 PA) · league .292 · 14 pitches seen.262xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .377 · 19 pitches seenxwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .379 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.309xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .205 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 25 pitches seen.246xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .246 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 68 pitches seen.259
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 20%40%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 13%27%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 28%17%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 24%33%Whiff 39% of 13 swings · league 32%39%Whiff 75% of 16 swings · league 49%75%
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 62%40%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 36% of 11 pitches · league 66%36%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 76%68%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 70%59%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 32% of 19 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 52% of 25 pitches · league 40%52%Swings at 24% of 68 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Samad Taylor against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.354.34722.3%19.3%15About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.345.33821.0%20.1%14About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.356.34913.3%11.2%17About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.275.26938.9%33.5%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.293.28632.7%27.5%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.323.31628.9%24.9%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Samad Taylor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.231.286.308.268.26221.4%7.1%37.9%81.9100.40.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1240.353.425.529.411.36415.0%12.5%29.4%85.5104.26.9%27.6%34.5%
Last 30 G2262.302.377.415.355.32825.8%11.3%28.7%83.6104.25.1%25.6%35.9%
90 days2262.302.377.415.355.32825.8%11.3%28.7%83.6104.25.1%25.6%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 23%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.00050.0%0.0%0.0%91.091.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G811.273.273.273.245.14818.2%0.0%21.1%68.197.30.0%22.2%11.1%
Last 30 G1734.281.324.406.321.22826.5%2.9%16.9%71.598.34.3%21.7%34.8%
90 days1734.281.324.406.321.22826.5%2.9%16.9%71.598.34.3%21.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.200.250.267.234.23025.0%6.2%35.5%82.7100.40.0%27.3%27.3%
Last 15 G1551.333.392.467.375.31715.7%9.8%27.6%81.4104.25.3%26.3%28.9%
Last 30 G2896.294.358.412.343.29226.0%8.3%24.4%79.1104.24.8%24.2%35.5%
90 days2896.294.358.412.343.29226.0%8.3%24.4%79.1104.24.8%24.2%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 10%
Samad Taylor · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating33Below average
Last 100 pitches52trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .300running 50 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.189.867.015Out
Sep 25RHPCutter91.3100.44.503Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.698.59.590Double play
Sep 25RHPFastball94.598.720.401Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.528.3-25.304Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.166.4-7.068Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.688.8-19.107Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.091.048.000Out
Sep 20RHPSinker98.676.2-59.284Single
Sep 20RHPSlider86.379.9-6.122Double
Sep 20RHPSinker97.291.79.580Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.4102.7251.331Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24400003
Sep 23400011
Sep 22100000
Sep 20334000
Sep 19414111
Sep 18422010
Sep 17523011
Sep 16422000
Sep 15200000

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Samad Taylor bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Samad Taylor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.2%42.4%
Whiff%23.1%22.2%
Contact%76.9%77.8%
Chase%45.8%39.9%
wOBA.242.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.3%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%23.1%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%19.7%
Avg EV82.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

63 PA
wOBA.356
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1000.47
Hard-hit%15.0%
K%24.8%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Samad Taylor: every projection we've made →