MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 6Xander Bogaerts
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.304wOBA vs RHP.319xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .341 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .332 vs league .338 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .344 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .263 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .280 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .310 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Xander Bogaerts's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Xander Bogaerts's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 78.5 mph at 14°Single: 105.8 mph at 12°Out: 91.2 mph at -34°Out: 77.9 mph at 50°Out: 89.8 mph at -37°Out: 104.2 mph at -8°Out: 106.0 mph at -12°Out: 99.4 mph at 7°Single: 101.7 mph at -3°Out: 73.0 mph at -21°Out: 83.1 mph at 72°Single: 99.3 mph at 8°Out: 81.9 mph at -16°Single: 76.7 mph at 21°Double: 97.6 mph at -4°Triple: 89.5 mph at 15°Home run: 108.3 mph at 24°Double: 100.0 mph at 21°Out: 97.7 mph at -4°Out: 95.8 mph at 2°Single: 92.7 mph at 9°Out: 107.9 mph at 0°Out: 101.3 mph at 49°Out: 97.0 mph at -19°Single: 112.0 mph at 7°Out: 80.5 mph at 62°Out: 91.7 mph at 68°Out: 106.0 mph at -26°Single: 99.7 mph at 12°Single: 101.5 mph at 15°Single: 70.5 mph at -46°Double: 79.1 mph at -1°Double: 96.4 mph at -2°Out: 80.1 mph at -19°Out: 74.2 mph at -44°Out: 99.5 mph at 23°Single: 77.6 mph at -57°Out: 94.1 mph at -2°Out: 73.3 mph at -7°Out: 91.1 mph at 48°
50% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.2%60.0%+3.2
2+ total bases34.9%32.7%+2.2
Home run8.2%8.1%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Xander Bogaerts hits
Xander Bogaerts · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .275 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.274xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .434 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.373xwOBA .460 shrunk (raw .618 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.460xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .313 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.324xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .172 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 50 pitches seen.258xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .217 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 54 pitches seen.256xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .081 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 29 pitches seen.217xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .257 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 54 pitches seen.302xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .197 on 19 PA) · league .292 · 60 pitches seen.234xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .478 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 70 pitches seen.431xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .410 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.332xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .347 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 88 pitches seen.316xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .380 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 272 pitches seen.353
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 13%29%Whiff 33% of 30 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 55% of 49 swings · league 49%55%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 21 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 66% of 50 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 66% of 50 pitches · league 76%66%Swings at 65% of 54 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 65%55%Swings at 52% of 54 pitches · league 68%52%Swings at 50% of 60 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 23% of 70 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 44% of 43 pitches · league 34%44%Swings at 25% of 88 pitches · league 40%25%Swings at 18% of 272 pitches · league 32%18%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Xander Bogaerts against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.341.34714.0%19.3%51About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.332.33823.0%20.1%34About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.344.3498.1%11.2%50About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.263.26931.9%33.5%24About league average vs these
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.280.28626.2%27.5%14About league average vs these
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.310.31618.9%24.9%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Xander Bogaerts · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.333.467.333.380.3846.7%20.0%16.7%91.3105.80.0%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1547.300.404.500.403.32721.3%14.9%17.9%91.4112.03.4%48.3%20.7%
Last 30 G2986.243.349.378.331.31520.9%14.0%22.9%93.4112.03.6%50.9%23.6%
90 days70212.223.330.358.312.32719.8%13.7%21.9%90.9112.07.2%44.9%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 17%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.14250.0%0.0%20.0%106.0106.00.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G914.385.429.462.396.4187.1%7.1%21.1%94.7107.90.0%58.3%41.7%
Last 30 G1632.357.438.393.382.3829.4%12.5%20.4%91.7107.90.0%44.0%36.0%
90 days4186.257.360.311.313.34612.8%14.0%21.6%91.8111.00.0%50.8%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.286.412.286.335.35611.8%17.6%17.2%92.5106.00.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1561.321.410.491.402.34818.0%13.1%18.6%92.4112.02.4%51.2%26.8%
Last 30 G30118.275.373.382.345.33317.8%13.6%22.2%92.9112.02.5%48.8%27.5%
90 days75298.233.339.344.313.33217.8%13.8%21.8%91.2112.05.0%46.8%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 201 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 6%
Xander Bogaerts · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating75Above average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.307 / .341running 34 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.478.514.634Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.3105.812.965Single
Sep 24RHPSinker95.591.2-34.050Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.577.950.055Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.089.8-37.047Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter92.1104.2-8.324Out
Sep 22LHPSinker95.3106.0-12.284Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.699.47.577Out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.1101.7-3.394Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.973.0-21.041Out
Sep 20RHPSlider84.683.172.003Out
Sep 20RHPSinker99.199.38.580Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25222000
Sep 24400010
Sep 23400012
Sep 22311000
Sep 20411010
Sep 18423001
Sep 17539102
Sep 16400020
Sep 15511002
Sep 14411010

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Xander Bogaerts bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Xander Bogaerts with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.0%42.4%
Whiff%20.9%22.2%
Contact%79.1%77.8%
Chase%35.8%39.9%
wOBA.254.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.312
K%17.9%
BB%12.9%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%30.9%
Avg EV90.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

213 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.319against pitches like his
RV/100-0.52
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%19.8%
BB%13.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Xander Bogaerts: every projection we've made →