← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 5George Lombard Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedHot
.344wOBA vs LHP.350xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · BALTrevor Rogers
Throws leftBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.9projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Trevor Rogers's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 94.2 mph, +10.9″ arm side, +15.0″ rise. George Lombard Jr.: wOBA .349 vs league .344 (about even).Fastball 50%Changeup: 19% usage, 86.8 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. George Lombard Jr.: wOBA .326 vs league .321 (about even).Changeup 19%Sweeper: 17% usage, 78.1 mph, -10.9″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. George Lombard Jr.: wOBA .332 vs league .327 (about even).Sweeper 17%Sinker: 9% usage, 93.6 mph, +17.1″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. George Lombard Jr.: wOBA .374 vs league .369 (about even).Sinker 9%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +3.8″ rise. George Lombard Jr.: wOBA .322 vs league .317 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is George Lombard Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.9%60.1%+0.9
2+ total bases35.4%33.9%+1.5
Home run13.9%11.9%+2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

George Lombard Jr. against each of Trevor Rogers's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%94.2+11″ / +15″.349.34422.7%19.7%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup19%86.8+14″ / +1″.326.32128.0%27.7%5Little history vs this shape
Sweeper17%78.1-11″ / +4″.332.32724.7%25.0%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%93.6+17″ / +7″.374.36915.7%13.5%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%83.9-4″ / +4″.322.31729.2%25.9%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .304results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPwith two strikes
Trevor Rogers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%45%20.9%23.6%18.6%
Sweeper17%24%31.4%25.7%20.5%
Changeup19%16%11.6%8.7%18.3%
Sinker9%10%18.2%22.2%17.7%
Cutter6%4%30.0%17.6%17.9%
George Lombard Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
George Lombard Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.4%41.5%
Whiff%21.7%21.6%
Contact%78.3%78.4%
Chase%37.8%39.9%
wOBA.244.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%25.1%
BB%6.9%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%24.7%
Avg EV86.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

28 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.350against pitches like his
RV/1000.47
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%24.0%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trevor RogersLHP · BAL vs NYY
6.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 24.1 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.0%9%≤34 strikeouts: 9.6%10%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 15.0%15%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 12.7%13%89+ strikeouts: 25.7%26%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.7%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%12.3%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff100
Location113
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%10994.212.5%
Changeup19%7786.711.5%
Sweeper17%10778.015.1%
Sinker9%9193.77.0%
Cutter6%9383.512.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199937%16%22%.152
Sep 139519%15%12%.423
Sep 710423%14%15%.221

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.George Lombard Jr.: every projection we've made →