Orioles at Yankees
3:05 PM CT · Final · Yankee Stadium · Weather data unavailable.
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- +0.8% vs neutral air
- Weather
- – · Wind unknown
- Park factor
- Runs 101 · HR 115 100 = average
- Umpire
- Edwin Moscoso
- Schedule
- BAL 2d rest; BAL traveled in; NYY day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 99 | 37% | 16% | 22% | .152 |
| Sep 13 | 95 | 19% | 15% | 12% | .423 |
| Sep 7 | 104 | 23% | 14% | 15% | .221 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Brendan Beck's pitches | BAL lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 44% | 92.7 | 95 | 13.2% | -4.83 | .300 | 9.3% | 30.8% | +1.51 |
| Slider | 33% | 84.1 | 79 | 31.0% | -8.75 | .311 | 15.0% | 22.1% | +2.76 |
| Splitter | 10% | 82.9 | 92 | 11.1% | 8.97 | .246 | 18.2% | 19.4% | -1.42 |
| Sinker | 7% | 92.3 | 85 | 16.7% | 2.20 | .382 | 6.7% | 28.4% | +0.15 |
| Curveball | 6% | 76.6 | 76 | 0.0% | -0.36 | .230 | 12.8% | 20.5% | -0.28 |
| Trevor Rogers's pitches | NYY lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 50% | 94.2 | 109 | 12.5% | 1.48 | .298 | 9.8% | 24.0% | -1.31 |
| Changeup | 19% | 86.7 | 77 | 11.5% | -3.33 | .229 | 14.3% | 18.9% | -0.39 |
| Sweeper | 17% | 78.0 | 107 | 15.1% | 1.34 | .267 | 14.2% | 21.1% | -0.78 |
| Sinker | 9% | 93.7 | 91 | 7.0% | 0.78 | .367 | 7.0% | 31.3% | +0.19 |
| Cutter | 6% | 83.5 | 93 | 12.0% | 1.28 | .303 | 11.4% | 25.5% | -0.16 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Pitched yesterday: Schlittler, Gil, Hanner, Fulmer, Hill (Back-to-Back).
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 45% | 20.9% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| Sweeper | 17% | 24% | 31.4% | 25.7% | 20.5% |
| Changeup | 19% | 16% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 9% | 10% | 18.2% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| Cutter | 6% | 4% | 30.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 33% | 41% | 22.2% | 16.7% | 21.1% |
| Fastball | 43% | 31% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.0% |
| Splitter | 9% | 17% | 33.3% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| Sinker | 8% | 7% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 17.0% |
| Curveball | 6% | 3% | – | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Orioles lineup
Confirmed · facing Brendan Beck RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Beavers RF · bats L | 58.5% | 35.8% | 13.5% | 4.0 | +0.7 | .309 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Pete Alonso 1B · bats R | 71.9% | 53.8% | 27.9% | 3.9 | +3.1 | .409 | A | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Gunnar Henderson SS · bats L | 62.6% | 37.9% | 11.8% | 3.8 | +0.7 | .336 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 4 | Coby Mayo DH · bats R | 62.7% | 43.6% | 21.9% | 3.8 | +0.8 | .328 | A | Power | Hot |
| 5 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B · bats R | 62.1% | 41.1% | 18.0% | 3.7 | +0.7 | .325 | C | Power | Cold |
| 6 | Colton Cowser CF · bats L | 52.8% | 31.9% | 12.9% | 3.6 | -0.0 | .318 | Avg | Balanced | Cold |
| 7 | Jeremiah Jackson 2B · bats R | 51.5% | 31.4% | 11.8% | 3.5 | -0.2 | .219 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Christian Franklin LF · bats R | 51.1% | 29.3% | 10.3% | 3.4 | +0.3 | .283 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Carlos Narváez C · bats R | 43.8% | 25.5% | 9.0% | 3.3 | -0.7 | .213 | F | Balanced | Cold |
Yankees lineup
Confirmed · facing Trevor Rogers LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt 1B · bats R | 62.3% | 36.2% | 11.5% | 4.0 | -0.5 | .300 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Ben Rice DH · bats L | 65.4% | 45.6% | 19.7% | 3.9 | +2.3 | .346 | A | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Heliot Ramos LF · bats R | 58.6% | 35.9% | 14.3% | 3.8 | -0.1 | .353 | A | Power | Cold |
| 4 | Amed Rosario RF · bats R | 60.1% | 34.3% | 10.7% | 3.8 | -0.6 | .266 | C | Balanced | Cold |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. SS · bats R | 60.9% | 35.4% | 13.9% | 3.7 | +0.9 | .344 | D | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Spencer Jones CF · bats L | 57.2% | 34.4% | 13.3% | 3.6 | +0.4 | .437 | A | Power | Normal |
| 7 | Anthony Volpe 3B · bats R | 56.3% | 31.6% | 10.0% | 3.5 | +0.1 | .293 | D | Balanced | Hot |
| 8 | Ali Sánchez C · bats R | 57.5% | 31.9% | 9.9% | 3.4 | +1.0 | .314 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | José Caballero 2B · bats R | 48.8% | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.3 | -0.6 | .252 | F | Balanced | Normal |