Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Isiah Kiner-Falefa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 58.0% | 57.0% | +1.0 |
| 2+ total bases | 28.1% | 27.5% | +0.6 |
| Home run | 2.4% | 3.2% | -0.8 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Isiah Kiner-Falefa against each of Clay Holmes's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 47% | 92.4 | +16″ / +2″ | .337 | .344 | 9.5% | 12.4% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sweeper | 17% | 80.6 | -16″ / -4″ | .275 | .283 | 21.7% | 25.2% | 2 | Little history vs this shape |
| Changeup | 15% | 87.0 | +9″ / -1″ | .280 | .288 | 24.1% | 28.5% | 1 | Little history vs this shape |
| Cutter | 14% | 84.5 | -1″ / -3″ | .291 | .298 | 26.1% | 32.2% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
| Curveball | 5% | 80.2 | -10″ / -14″ | .297 | .305 | 19.5% | 22.8% | 5 | Little history vs this shape |
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 15% | 24% | 34.8% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| Sweeper | 17% | 21% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 19.3% |
| Sinker | 47% | 20% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| Cutter | 14% | 16% | 41.2% | 28.6% | 17.9% |
| Curveball | 5% | 13% | 33.3% | 21.7% | 20.0% |
| Fastball | 2% | 6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.0% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 41.1% | 42.4% |
| Whiff% | 21.5% | 22.2% |
| Contact% | 78.5% | 77.8% |
| Chase% | 39.7% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .235 | .237 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 23.6% | 24.3% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst right-handers, last 90 days
31 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 98 | 17% | 8% | 17% | .300 |
| Sep 12 | 100 | 22% | 15% | 26% | .358 |
| Sep 6 | 80 | 9% | 5% | 30% | .404 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.