MLBengine v14
← Sep 25, 2026 slate

Cubs at Red Sox

12:05 PM CT · Final · Fenway Park · Weather data unavailable.

The game

CHC runs4.9win 55%
BOS runs4.3win 45%
Total9.2no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning48%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
+0.3% vs neutral air
Weather
– · Wind unknown
Park factor
Runs 106 · HR 90 100 = average
Umpire
Doug Eddings
Schedule
CHC traveled in; BOS day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CHC starter
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC vs BOS
3.3projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.7 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 57.5%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.2%18%45 strikeouts: 12.2%12%56 strikeouts: 6.8%7%67 strikeouts: 3.2%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.3%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo87.8
BTB Stuff99
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker47%9292.34.0%
Sweeper17%8680.45.0%
Changeup15%9387.014.8%
Cutter14%15384.723.5%
Curveball5%9580.211.1%
Fastball2%5992.86.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 189817%8%17%.300
Sep 1210022%15%26%.358
Sep 6809%5%30%.404

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

BOS starter
Alec GamboaLHP · BOS vs CHC
1.8projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.8 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 89.3%89%≤34 strikeouts: 7.1%7%45 strikeouts: 2.6%3%56 strikeouts: 0.7%1%67 strikeouts: 0.2%0%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.0%0%9+book 1.5
Over 1.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%6.9%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10496.08.2%
Slider32%10888.710.3%
Sinker17%10995.06.7%
Changeup3%10386.96.8%
Curveball1%9081.70.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPvsCHC lineuppitch-mix battle
Alec Gamboa's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Alec Gamboa's pitchesCHC lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball47%96.01048.2%1.75.3906.8%26.2%+2.10
Slider32%88.710810.3%-1.63.42016.3%20.4%+2.39
Sinker17%95.01096.7%-0.31.3564.0%23.5%+0.49
Changeup3%86.91036.8%-0.92.30313.1%21.6%+0.02
Curveball1%81.7900.0%2.22.42310.9%33.0%+0.05
Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineuppitch-mix battle
Clay Holmes's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Clay Holmes's pitchesBOS lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Sinker47%92.3924.0%1.04.3635.0%28.2%+0.94
Sweeper17%80.4865.0%-0.27.31412.9%15.6%+0.04
Changeup15%87.09314.8%0.02.32414.6%20.2%+0.11
Cutter14%84.715323.5%0.71.39110.3%24.7%+0.47
Curveball5%80.29511.1%3.87.2778.6%25.8%-0.26
Fastball2%92.8596.2%-1.49.35210.0%24.5%+0.07

Bullpens

Cubs bullpen#24 of 30
K%21.0%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.5%
SwStr%9.2%
wOBA allowed.340
Arms available15 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Boyd, Palencia, Zeferjahn.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Red Sox bullpen#11 of 30
K%26.2%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%15.8%
SwStr%12.5%
wOBA allowed.331
Arms available16 / 16

Pitched yesterday: Suarez, Burgos, Sandoval, Miller.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
Clay Holmes CHC · RHPwith two strikes
Clay Holmes with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup15%24%34.8%18.2%18.6%
Sweeper17%21%12.5%7.9%19.3%
Sinker47%20%13.8%16.2%17.0%
Cutter14%16%41.2%28.6%17.9%
Curveball5%13%33.3%21.7%20.0%
Fastball2%6%0.0%0.0%18.0%
Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPwith two strikes
Alec Gamboa with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider35%39%20.0%12.8%21.6%
Fastball40%39%7.4%14.9%18.6%
Sinker22%16%10.0%21.1%17.7%
Changeup2%3%50.0%50.0%18.3%
Curveball2%3%0.0%0.0%21.2%

Cubs lineup

Confirmed · facing Alec Gamboa LHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Pete Crow-Armstrong CF · bats L64.9%43.5%17.0%4.0+0.4.383APowerHot
2Seiya Suzuki RF · bats R65.6%42.7%16.0%3.9+1.7.434BBalancedHot
3Alex Bregman DH · bats R65.8%41.0%12.8%3.8+0.8.433AContactHot
4Tyrone Taylor LF · bats R66.3%41.3%11.3%3.8+1.8.427AvgPowerCold
5Ian Happ LF · bats S55.3%31.8%8.6%3.7+0.1.234AvgBalancedHot
6Nico Hoerner 2B · bats R69.8%37.6%3.9%3.6+0.5.271DBalancedNormal
7Matt Shaw 3B · bats R53.2%29.7%7.9%3.5+0.6.339FBalancedCold
8Michael Busch 1B · bats L56.9%31.8%9.8%3.4-0.2.362CBalancedNormal
9Dansby Swanson SS · bats R60.1%36.5%12.4%3.3+1.6.368CBalancedCold
10Miguel Amaya C · bats R56.5%32.5%8.9%3.6+0.6.297DBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Red Sox lineup

Confirmed · facing Clay Holmes RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Roman Anthony LF · bats L63.6%37.4%11.8%4.0+1.6.358ABalancedCold
2Mickey Gasper C · bats S65.3%40.4%12.9%3.9+1.7.469BPowerCold
3Connor Wong C · bats R56.3%28.7%4.9%3.8+0.3.234FBalancedNormal
4Adley Rutschman DH · bats S60.8%34.0%7.1%3.8+0.5.335DBalancedCold
5Wilyer Abreu RF · bats L61.2%39.0%14.1%3.7+1.4.343BPowerNormal
6Caleb Durbin 3B · bats R59.8%29.6%4.5%3.6+1.6.359CContactHot
7Nick Sogard 2B · bats S59.2%30.1%5.9%3.5+0.8.332FBalancedCold
8Jarren Duran CF · bats L56.4%30.0%8.1%3.4+0.2.286AvgBalancedCold
9Andruw Monasterio 1B · bats R58.9%29.9%6.1%3.3+1.6.303CContactNormal
10Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS · bats R58.0%28.1%2.4%3.6+1.0.267FBalancedCold
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.