Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Matt Shaw's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 53.2% | 52.6% | +0.6 |
| 2+ total bases | 29.7% | 29.4% | +0.4 |
| Home run | 7.9% | 8.5% | -0.6 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Matt Shaw against each of Alec Gamboa's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 40% | 95.6 | +4″ / +17″ | .331 | .328 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 5 | Little history vs this shape |
| Slider | 35% | 88.5 | -4″ / +2″ | .315 | .312 | 24.9% | 25.1% | 3 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sinker | 22% | 94.5 | +12″ / +9″ | .360 | .357 | 15.7% | 14.8% | 10 | About league average vs these |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 35% | 39% | 20.0% | 12.8% | 21.6% |
| Fastball | 40% | 39% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| Sinker | 22% | 16% | 10.0% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| Changeup | 2% | 3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 18.3% |
| Curveball | 2% | 3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.2% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 38.8% | 41.5% |
| Whiff% | 19.9% | 21.6% |
| Contact% | 80.1% | 78.4% |
| Chase% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .255 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 17.6% | 19.3% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
26 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.