MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 1Pete Crow-Armstrong
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.383wOBA vs LHP.327xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · BOSAlec Gamboa
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Stable
1.8projected K16%K%1.7trips vs this hitter
Alec Gamboa's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 40% usage, 95.6 mph, +3.5″ arm side, +17.0″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .357 vs league .340 (hitter's edge).Fastball 40%Slider: 35% usage, 88.5 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +1.5″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .337 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Slider 35%Sinker: 22% usage, 94.5 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +8.5″ rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong: wOBA .350 vs league .333 (hitter's edge).Sinker 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pete Crow-Armstrong's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.9%64.5%+0.4
2+ total bases43.5%45.0%-1.5
Home run17.0%21.4%-4.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-1.2
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-1.4
Park
-1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Pete Crow-Armstrong against each of Alec Gamboa's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball40%95.6+4″ / +17″.357.34019.4%22.5%21About league average vs these
Slider35%88.5-4″ / +2″.337.32024.1%28.4%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker22%94.5+12″ / +9″.350.3339.5%11.3%36About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.425 / .389running 37 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPwith two strikes
Alec Gamboa with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider35%39%20.0%12.8%21.6%
Fastball40%39%7.4%14.9%18.6%
Sinker22%16%10.0%21.1%17.7%
Changeup2%3%50.0%50.0%18.3%
Curveball2%3%0.0%0.0%21.2%
Pete Crow-Armstrong bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pete Crow-Armstrong with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.2%44.1%
Whiff%21.3%22.7%
Contact%78.7%77.3%
Chase%33.3%38.2%
wOBA.232.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%20.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.403
K%25.4%
BB%12.4%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV89.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

111 PA
wOBA.383
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1001.23
Hard-hit%24.8%
K%27.2%
BB%13.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Alec GamboaLHP · BOS vs CHC
1.8projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.8 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 89.3%89%≤34 strikeouts: 7.1%7%45 strikeouts: 2.6%3%56 strikeouts: 0.7%1%67 strikeouts: 0.2%0%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.0%0%9+book 1.5
Over 1.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%6.9%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10496.08.2%
Slider32%10888.710.3%
Sinker17%10995.06.7%
Changeup3%10386.96.8%
Curveball1%9081.70.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pete Crow-Armstrong: every projection we've made →