MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 2Alejandro Kirk
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.394wOBA vs LHP.322xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .378 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .384 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .320 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Alejandro Kirk: wOBA .331 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alejandro Kirk's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alejandro Kirk's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.9 mph at -14°Out: 88.8 mph at -32°Double: 105.9 mph at 8°Single: 89.9 mph at 11°Out: 73.3 mph at -27°Out: 74.7 mph at 54°Out: 84.1 mph at -18°Out: 77.7 mph at -8°Single: 102.2 mph at 9°Out: 48.9 mph at -25°Single: 77.4 mph at -12°Single: 107.3 mph at 9°Out: 81.2 mph at 53°Out: 103.3 mph at -8°Out: 74.5 mph at 6°Single: 94.4 mph at 5°Out: 75.3 mph at -1°Single: 103.0 mph at 10°Out: 86.9 mph at -17°Out: 48.0 mph at -53°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Single: 77.3 mph at 22°Out: 86.8 mph at 6°Single: 106.2 mph at 5°Home run: 106.8 mph at 23°Out: 83.2 mph at 46°Single: 70.6 mph at 18°Out: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 59.9 mph at 11°Single: 73.2 mph at 8°Out: 100.7 mph at 7°Out: 84.9 mph at 43°Out: 85.4 mph at 24°Single: 109.7 mph at 3°Out: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 63.9 mph at 77°Single: 102.6 mph at 10°Home run: 97.7 mph at 27°Out: 91.8 mph at -30°Out: 103.2 mph at -10°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit73.6%70.9%+2.7
2+ total bases45.5%41.5%+4.0
Home run13.5%10.0%+3.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Alejandro Kirk hits
Alejandro Kirk · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .711 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.328xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .376 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.331xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .199 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 12 pitches seen.348xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .588 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 21 pitches seen.402xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .320 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.290xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .348 on 12 PA) · league .350 · 20 pitches seen.349xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .147 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 20 pitches seen.234xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 14 pitches seen.242xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 30 pitches seen.370xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .373 on 18 PA) · league .289 · 58 pitches seen.339xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .249 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 52 pitches seen.254
vs LHP · 283 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 21%25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 25%40%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 29%100%Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 48%25%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 34%29%
vs LHP · 283 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 71%44%Swings at 0% of 8 pitches · league 64%0%Swings at 88% of 16 pitches · league 67%88%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 76%58%Swings at 43% of 21 pitches · league 72%43%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 59%59%Swings at 70% of 20 pitches · league 68%70%Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 66%45%Swings at 36% of 14 pitches · league 30%36%Swings at 3% of 30 pitches · league 26%3%Swings at 35% of 58 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 27% of 52 pitches · league 41%27%
vs LHP · 283 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Alejandro Kirk against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.378.36710.1%12.6%15About league average vs these
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.384.3738.7%10.8%9About league average vs these
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.320.30922.5%30.1%11About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.331.31919.5%28.4%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alejandro Kirk · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.400.250.1840.0%0.0%10.0%82.4105.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G613.385.385.769.485.3210.0%0.0%9.5%86.0105.90.0%30.8%46.2%
Last 30 G1434.324.324.471.355.29811.8%0.0%13.3%90.0108.80.0%41.4%44.8%
90 days3677.343.416.478.413.33214.3%11.7%13.6%90.1108.81.8%37.5%41.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 34%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.400.538.400.438.34115.4%23.1%12.5%86.8107.30.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1549.310.408.381.361.33514.3%14.3%10.1%86.7109.72.9%34.3%28.6%
Last 30 G3093.291.398.456.382.34311.8%15.1%10.0%89.5109.74.4%47.1%35.3%
90 days58171.287.368.427.359.3379.4%11.7%10.0%88.4109.73.0%42.2%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 135 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.444.400.386.29811.1%16.7%11.8%85.1107.30.0%23.1%30.8%
Last 15 G1562.327.403.473.387.33211.3%11.3%10.0%86.5109.72.1%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G30127.301.378.460.374.33011.8%11.0%10.9%89.6109.73.1%45.4%38.1%
90 days62248.304.383.442.376.33510.9%11.7%11.0%88.9109.72.6%40.8%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 6%
Alejandro Kirk · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating82Excellent
Last 100 pitches28trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .353running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup86.894.9-14.122Double play
Sep 25LHPChangeup87.588.8-32.046Double play
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.5105.98.630Double
Sep 23RHPCutter91.089.911.606Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.073.3-27.040Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.174.754.139Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball86.084.1-18.048Out
Sep 21RHPCutter88.377.7-8.050Out
Sep 21RHPSinker95.4102.29.714Single
Sep 19LHPCurveball75.948.9-25.084Force out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.177.4-12.035Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter88.3107.39.725Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25512020
Sep 23411002
Sep 23100000
Sep 21411010
Sep 19422000
Sep 18411001
Sep 15411000
Sep 14522010
Sep 12425101
Sep 11500021

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Alejandro Kirk bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alejandro Kirk with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.2%41.5%
Whiff%20.6%21.6%
Contact%79.4%78.4%
Chase%37.6%39.9%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.360
K%12.3%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%5.3%
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%32.1%
Avg EV88.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

74 PA
wOBA.394
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/1001.05
Hard-hit%27.3%
K%15.8%
BB%10.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alejandro Kirk: every projection we've made →