MLBengine v14
← Sep 25, 2026 slate

Reds at Blue Jays

6:07 PM CT · Live · Rogers Centre · Weather data unavailable.

The game

CIN runs4.2win 41%
TOR runs5.2win 59%
Total9.4no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning50%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
+0.4% vs neutral air
Weather
– · Wind unknown
Park factor
Runs 102 · HR 105 100 = average
Umpire
Adrian Johnson
Schedule
CIN traveled in; TOR 2d rest; TOR traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CIN starter
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

TOR starter
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineuppitch-mix battle
José Soriano's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
José Soriano's pitchesCIN lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Sinker34%96.1985.8%-0.08.3385.7%31.1%+0.52
Curveball27%85.410217.8%1.32.23612.1%16.5%-1.46
Fastball18%96.6928.1%0.72.34610.4%27.9%+0.14
Splitter17%92.21109.5%0.83.33716.6%11.9%+0.07
Slider4%90.21039.1%-0.76.28217.1%25.1%-0.11
Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineuppitch-mix battle
Nick Lodolo's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Nick Lodolo's pitchesTOR lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball28%93.61025.4%-0.69.2888.1%21.1%-0.42
Sinker27%93.4962.3%0.07.3613.6%25.6%+0.87
Curveball24%82.59017.9%-1.31.30210.7%21.0%+0.42
Changeup22%87.77011.7%-2.07.33712.0%27.8%+0.92

Bullpens

Reds bullpen#26 of 30
K%21.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.2%
SwStr%9.3%
wOBA allowed.354
Arms available19 / 19

Pitched yesterday: Singer, McCambley, Phillips, Antone, Pagán, Burke.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Blue Jays bullpen#9 of 30
K%24.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%13.7%
SwStr%10.6%
wOBA allowed.293
Arms available20 / 20

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%

Reds lineup

Confirmed · facing José Soriano RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Carlos Jorge CF · bats L59.5%33.9%9.3%4.0-0.5.284FBalancedNormal
2Elly De La Cruz DH · bats S66.4%40.8%14.5%3.9+0.9.385APowerNormal
3Sal Stewart 1B · bats R70.2%42.1%14.2%3.8+0.7.366BBalancedHot
4JJ Bleday LF · bats L55.5%32.5%10.8%3.8+0.3.300DBalancedHot
5Eugenio Suárez 3B · bats R52.4%32.9%15.3%3.7-0.4.347BPowerNormal
6Héctor Rodríguez RF · bats L56.6%32.1%10.5%3.6+0.5.341DBalancedNormal
7Juan Brito 2B · bats S62.0%36.0%11.8%3.5-0.2.312AvgBalancedHot
8Jose Trevino C · bats R58.0%30.7%6.3%3.4+0.1.310FBalancedCold
9Oswaldo Cabrera SS · bats S52.6%24.2%5.0%3.3+0.2.244FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Blue Jays lineup

Confirmed · facing Nick Lodolo LHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Charles McAdoo 2B · bats R64.7%39.0%13.0%4.0+3.1.318DBalancedCold
2Alejandro Kirk C · bats R73.6%45.5%13.5%3.9+2.7.394BPowerCold
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B · bats R70.7%43.5%12.8%3.8+3.4.354APowerNormal
4George Springer DH · bats R68.0%42.6%16.9%3.8+2.4.266BContactNormal
5Kazuma Okamoto 3B · bats R65.3%42.6%19.7%3.7+3.9.372AvgBalancedHot
6Nathan Lukes RF · bats L65.1%35.1%7.8%3.6+1.7.311DBalancedHot
7Davis Schneider LF · bats R50.9%32.0%14.9%3.5+2.9.308BBalancedNormal
8Ernie Clement SS · bats R62.5%31.4%4.5%3.4+1.0.271FBalancedNormal
9Myles Straw CF · bats R58.6%31.0%6.4%3.3+2.0.311CContactCold
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.