← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 7Davis Schneider
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.308wOBA vs LHP.288xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .363 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .369 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .304 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .315 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Davis Schneider's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.9%48.0%+2.9
2+ total bases32.0%28.9%+3.1
Home run14.9%12.1%+2.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Davis Schneider against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.363.36714.5%12.6%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.369.37312.5%10.8%2Little history vs this shape
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.304.30934.5%30.1%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.315.31931.4%28.4%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.400 / .359running 42 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Davis Schneider bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Davis Schneider with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.9%41.5%
Whiff%22.7%21.6%
Contact%77.3%78.4%
Chase%37.0%39.9%
wOBA.236.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.358
K%26.3%
BB%15.6%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%22.6%
Avg EV89.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

20 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.288against pitches like his
RV/100-0.33
Hard-hit%19.4%
K%30.5%
BB%15.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Davis Schneider: every projection we've made →