MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 4George Springer
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.266wOBA vs LHP.257xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .354 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .359 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .295 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. George Springer: wOBA .306 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is George Springer's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.0%65.6%+2.4
2+ total bases42.6%39.1%+3.5
Home run16.9%13.2%+3.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

George Springer against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.354.36711.3%12.6%16About league average vs these
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.359.37310.1%10.8%9About league average vs these
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.295.30926.9%30.1%15About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.306.31926.1%28.4%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .321running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
George Springer bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
George Springer with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%41.5%
Whiff%20.8%21.6%
Contact%79.2%78.4%
Chase%38.4%39.9%
wOBA.233.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.8%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.376
K%17.7%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%29.3%
Avg EV89.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

79 PA
wOBA.266
xwOBA vs this mix.257against pitches like his
RV/100-0.79
Hard-hit%28.8%
K%19.2%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.George Springer: every projection we've made →