MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 2Adael Amador
Switch hitterTalent grade FContactNormal
.368wOBA vs RHP.284xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .345 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .317 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .339 vs league .332 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .360 vs league .353 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .358 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Adael Amador's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Adael Amador's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 55.5 mph at 86°Out: 59.9 mph at 20°Double: 104.1 mph at 20°Out: 97.7 mph at 33°Out: 93.5 mph at 8°Double: 93.6 mph at 28°Out: 65.9 mph at -46°Out: 92.4 mph at 21°Out: 68.5 mph at 49°Out: 99.1 mph at -32°Single: 83.0 mph at 20°Single: 86.3 mph at -4°Out: 95.3 mph at -30°Out: 96.7 mph at 0°Out: 84.7 mph at -26°Out: 85.0 mph at 84°Out: 78.4 mph at 6°Out: 92.8 mph at -4°Out: 76.1 mph at -2°Single: 77.4 mph at -49°Out: 90.4 mph at -26°Out: 85.7 mph at -24°Out: 84.2 mph at 33°Out: 65.5 mph at -24°Single: 94.6 mph at 6°Out: 69.3 mph at -2°Out: 82.6 mph at -70°Out: 64.5 mph at -33°Home run: 102.3 mph at 25°Out: 104.0 mph at -1°Double: 89.7 mph at 24°Out: 92.2 mph at -11°Out: 78.5 mph at -4°Out: 66.6 mph at -66°Out: 90.8 mph at 47°Single: 37.1 mph at 32°Out: 92.5 mph at -7°Single: 99.7 mph at 9°Out: 70.7 mph at -11°Out: 93.9 mph at 6°
20% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.2%64.1%-0.9
2+ total bases34.3%34.6%-0.4
Home run10.1%9.3%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Adael Amador hits
Adael Amador · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .332 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 11 pitches seen.314xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .226 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 16 pitches seen.313xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .396 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 16 pitches seen.390xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .258 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 13 pitches seen.300xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .177 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.275xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .332 on 4 PA) · league .351 · 11 pitches seen.346xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .191 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 11 pitches seen.255xwOBA .418 shrunk (raw .516 on 5 PA) · league .377 · 37 pitches seen.418xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.253xwOBA .198 shrunk (raw .086 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 26 pitches seen.198xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .246 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.267
vs RHP · 213 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 20%22%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 19%100%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 32%14%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 49%17%
vs RHP · 213 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 14% of 7 pitches · league 62%14%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 72%82%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 77% of 13 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 68%91%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 60%73%Swings at 8% of 37 pitches · league 24%8%Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 34%29%Swings at 54% of 26 pitches · league 40%54%Swings at 27% of 45 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 213 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Adael Amador against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.345.33714.4%18.0%13About league average vs these
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.317.30920.3%27.7%3Little history vs this shape
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.339.33219.2%26.4%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.360.35316.8%21.1%6Little history vs this shape; rarely misses them
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.358.35014.0%17.7%19About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Adael Amador · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.333.455.556.436.3439.1%18.2%20.0%82.1104.112.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1335.258.343.516.369.3075.7%8.6%14.8%84.9104.210.3%27.6%24.1%
Last 30 G2355.250.333.562.382.26710.9%9.1%13.9%82.4104.27.0%25.6%20.9%
90 days2355.250.333.562.382.26710.9%9.1%13.9%82.4104.27.0%25.6%20.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 9%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.250.250.250.225.3160.0%0.0%0.0%85.899.10.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G818.188.278.250.247.22516.7%11.1%11.1%82.399.10.0%7.7%30.8%
Last 30 G1532.321.406.393.365.29315.6%12.5%10.4%83.0108.54.3%21.7%39.1%
90 days1532.321.406.393.365.29315.6%12.5%10.4%83.0108.54.3%21.7%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.308.400.462.380.3366.7%13.3%14.8%83.3104.18.3%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1553.234.321.426.327.2799.4%9.4%13.2%84.1104.27.1%21.4%26.2%
Last 30 G2587.276.360.500.376.27712.6%10.3%12.5%82.6108.56.1%24.2%27.3%
90 days2587.276.360.500.376.27712.6%10.3%12.5%82.6108.56.1%24.2%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 14%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 12%
Adael Amador · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating38Below average
Last 100 pitches8trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.380 / .304running 76 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider84.755.586.007Out
Sep 25RHPFastball98.059.920.257Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.0104.120.699Double
Sep 24RHPCutter89.397.733.423Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.293.58.460Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.393.628.215Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup91.165.9-46.176Force out
Sep 23LHPSweeper86.892.421.264Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.268.549.164Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.499.1-32.081Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.583.020.754Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.886.3-4.138Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400011
Sep 24212000
Sep 23412000
Sep 20411010
Sep 19111000
Sep 18400000
Sep 17100010
Sep 16400002
Sep 15511000
Sep 14511010

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Adael Amador bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Adael Amador with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.1%41.0%
Whiff%18.8%21.3%
Contact%81.2%78.7%
Chase%40.2%39.6%
wOBA.261.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFContact type
wOBA.303
K%18.6%
BB%8.7%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%20.2%
Avg EV84.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

51 PA
wOBA.368
xwOBA vs this mix.284against pitches like his
RV/1001.21
Hard-hit%23.0%
K%14.7%
BB%9.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Adael Amador: every projection we've made →