COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026

The game

COL runs4.1win 43%

CWS runs4.8win 57%

Total8.9no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning51%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +0.6% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 98 · HR 99 100 = average
Umpire: Mark Ripperger
Schedule: COL traveled in; CWS traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

COL starter

Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS

4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings

Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%15.8%

BB%4.8%

Whiff%8.9%

Velo88.4

BTB Stuff85

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Splitter22%7386.915.5%

Fastball20%9493.08.3%

Sinker19%7492.93.5%

Cutter12%11489.15.0%

Sweeper11%8583.79.6%

Curveball10%7980.011.8%

Slider8%8886.06.3%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	72	29%	13%	41%	.135
Sep 14	88	9%	8%	39%	.454
Sep 9	99	20%	15%	24%	.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Sam Antonacci14%

2Kyle Teel35%

3Miguel Vargas19%

4Munetaka Murakami38%

5Andrew Benintendi21%

6Tristan Peters20%

7Randal Grichuk24%

8Colson Montgomery42%

9Braden Montgomery16%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

CWS starter

Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL

5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%27.2%

BB%9.3%

Whiff%12.1%

Velo89.6

BTB Stuff110

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball37%12995.112.4%

Curveball19%9078.411.7%

Slider16%9786.016.6%

Cutter16%12189.613.2%

Sinker12%8394.95.0%

Changeup1%8386.112.5%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	98	19%	8%	31%	.281
Sep 14	94	19%	11%	29%	.312
Sep 1	104	27%	10%	18%	.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jake McCarthy15%

2Adael Amador15%

3Hunter Goodman27%

4TJ Rumfield14%

5Kyle Karros21%

6Mickey Moniak29%

7Troy Johnston19%

8Zac Veen34%

9Ezequiel Tovar19%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineuppitch-mix battle

Sean Burke's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Sean Burke's pitches					COL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	37%	95.1	129	12.4%	1.77	.375	11.8%	28.9%	+0.54
Curveball	19%	78.4	90	11.7%	-0.36	.298	14.2%	14.3%	-0.12
Slider	16%	86.0	97	16.6%	-1.35	.290	17.1%	21.8%	-0.22
Cutter	16%	89.6	121	13.2%	2.44	.332	8.8%	26.3%	-0.28
Sinker	12%	94.9	83	5.0%	0.61	.379	4.5%	35.1%	+0.42

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineuppitch-mix battle

Tomoyuki Sugano's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches					CWS lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Splitter	22%	86.9	73	15.5%	-0.52	.267	20.5%	17.9%	-0.73
Fastball	20%	93.0	94	8.3%	-3.30	.334	10.2%	27.0%	+0.79
Sinker	19%	92.9	74	3.5%	1.65	.353	7.0%	29.5%	+0.11
Cutter	12%	89.1	114	5.0%	-1.46	.393	9.8%	27.5%	+0.66
Sweeper	11%	83.7	85	9.6%	-2.52	.315	13.8%	17.8%	+0.26
Curveball	10%	80.0	79	11.8%	-1.91	.337	10.6%	21.4%	+0.35
Slider	8%	86.0	88	6.3%	-2.05	.280	16.7%	22.8%	-0.11

Bullpens

Rockies bullpen#28 of 30

K%18.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.7%

SwStr%9.4%

wOBA allowed.357

Arms available15 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Gordon, Herget, Romano, Frasso, Mejia.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

White Sox bullpen#13 of 30

K%22.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.3%

SwStr%10.8%

wOBA allowed.336

Arms available19 / 19

Pitched yesterday: Sandlin, Richards, Brazobán, Davis.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Splitter+6 pts

Fastball+2 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Curveball+2 pts

Slider+4 pts

Cutter-5 pts

Sweeper-5 pts

Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Splitter	22%	28%	24.1%	16.5%	19.0%
Fastball	20%	22%	19.4%	16.9%	18.0%
Sinker	19%	15%	11.8%	11.1%	17.0%
Curveball	10%	12%	20.8%	13.9%	20.0%
Slider	8%	12%	15.0%	14.3%	21.1%
Cutter	12%	6%	12.5%	10.5%	17.9%
Sweeper	11%	6%	12.5%	5.6%	19.3%

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+13 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Slider-2 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	37%	50%	17.4%	18.8%	18.0%
Curveball	19%	19%	28.6%	20.7%	20.0%
Slider	16%	14%	25.5%	23.4%	21.1%
Sinker	12%	10%	7.1%	11.4%	17.0%
Cutter	15%	8%	37.5%	27.0%	17.9%

Rockies lineup

Confirmed · facing Sean Burke RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Jake McCarthy CF · bats L	68.6%	39.1%	11.6%	4.0	-0.9	.333	F	Balanced	Cold
2	Adael Amador 2B · bats S	63.2%	34.3%	10.1%	3.9	-0.9	.368	F	Contact	Normal
3	Hunter Goodman C · bats R	61.1%	38.4%	18.1%	3.8	-1.5	.366	C	Balanced	Normal
4	TJ Rumfield 1B · bats L	62.8%	32.8%	8.3%	3.8	-1.3	.368	B	Contact	Normal
5	Kyle Karros 3B · bats R	59.5%	32.6%	10.8%	3.7	-1.2	.351	C	Balanced	Normal
6	Mickey Moniak LF · bats L	55.8%	32.8%	12.8%	3.6	-2.2	.300	Avg	Balanced	Normal
7	Troy Johnston RF · bats L	58.1%	30.5%	7.8%	3.5	-1.6	.306	C	Balanced	Cold
8	Zac Veen DH · bats L	47.8%	25.2%	9.6%	3.4	-2.1	.368	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Ezequiel Tovar SS · bats R	52.8%	26.9%	8.5%	3.3	-2.7	.300	F	Balanced	Normal

White Sox lineup

Confirmed · facing Tomoyuki Sugano RHP