MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 1Jake McCarthy
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.333wOBA vs RHP.320xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .339 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .310 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .332 vs league .332 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .354 vs league .353 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .352 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake McCarthy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake McCarthy's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.9 mph at -29°Out: 80.6 mph at 62°Out: 89.4 mph at 71°Single: 82.8 mph at -13°Out: 48.1 mph at -58°Single: 94.9 mph at 1°Out: 44.9 mph at -23°Out: 98.4 mph at 16°Out: 100.3 mph at 9°Out: 75.1 mph at -17°Triple: 104.7 mph at 3°Out: 45.8 mph at 74°Out: 81.2 mph at 28°Out: 61.3 mph at -28°Single: 38.7 mph at -69°Out: 74.2 mph at -7°Out: 43.7 mph at -62°Single: 91.6 mph at 12°Out: 87.9 mph at -20°Triple: 104.8 mph at 24°Single: 63.0 mph at -8°Out: 85.8 mph at 33°Out: 74.2 mph at -17°Triple: 99.4 mph at 27°Out: 77.7 mph at 4°Out: 91.1 mph at 3°Out: 74.0 mph at 2°Out: 82.0 mph at -20°Single: 95.4 mph at 13°Single: 85.2 mph at 8°Out: 105.0 mph at 12°Out: 91.7 mph at 7°Double: 88.1 mph at 21°Triple: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 96.4 mph at 18°Out: 91.0 mph at -3°Out: 79.8 mph at 34°Out: 71.1 mph at 61°Out: 91.8 mph at 36°Single: 91.0 mph at -19°
23% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.6%69.6%-0.9
2+ total bases39.1%39.7%-0.5
Home run11.6%10.4%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake McCarthy hits
Jake McCarthy · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .374 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.314xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .160 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 23 pitches seen.240xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .478 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.317xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .366 on 24 PA) · league .342 · 46 pitches seen.358xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .395 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 38 pitches seen.392xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .269 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 30 pitches seen.294xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .246 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 36 pitches seen.271xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .443 on 30 PA) · league .351 · 48 pitches seen.417xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .351 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.320xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .309 on 21 PA) · league .377 · 112 pitches seen.334xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .209 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 53 pitches seen.246xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .270 on 26 PA) · league .263 · 105 pitches seen.268xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .188 on 21 PA) · league .274 · 116 pitches seen.219
vs RHP · 681 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 22%7%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 20%12%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 19%6%Whiff 6% of 36 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 14% of 35 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 0% of 28 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 7% of 42 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 0% of 22 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 8% of 36 swings · league 28%8%Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 40% of 50 swings · league 32%40%Whiff 54% of 54 swings · league 49%54%
vs RHP · 681 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 22 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 72%74%Swings at 90% of 19 pitches · league 66%90%Swings at 78% of 46 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 92% of 38 pitches · league 76%92%Swings at 93% of 30 pitches · league 70%93%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 88% of 48 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 67% of 33 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 32% of 112 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 51% of 53 pitches · league 34%51%Swings at 48% of 105 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 47% of 116 pitches · league 32%47%
vs RHP · 681 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake McCarthy against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.339.33712.8%18.0%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.310.30924.1%27.7%13About league average vs these
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.332.33222.8%26.4%41About league average vs these
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.354.35315.5%21.1%38About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.352.35012.8%17.7%45About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake McCarthy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.083.083.083.075.17841.7%0.0%28.6%78.1100.30.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1436.200.222.286.230.27919.4%0.0%19.0%82.2105.03.7%22.2%29.6%
Last 30 G2980.253.288.413.306.33616.2%3.8%13.5%86.4106.86.5%35.5%37.1%
90 days72218.277.304.427.324.31615.6%3.7%17.8%84.4110.44.6%32.9%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.571.357.14814.3%0.0%28.6%80.6104.70.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1128.423.464.731.536.35610.7%3.6%14.9%81.2104.813.0%26.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2455.340.400.540.422.32912.7%3.6%20.0%82.7104.87.0%27.9%34.9%
90 days55125.297.371.550.402.36013.6%5.6%18.7%81.1108.26.3%28.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 95 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 28%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.158.158.263.179.16731.6%0.0%28.6%79.2104.70.0%23.1%23.1%
Last 15 G1564.295.328.475.366.31315.6%1.6%17.3%81.7105.08.0%24.0%32.0%
Last 30 G30135.288.333.464.354.33314.8%3.7%16.1%84.9106.86.7%32.4%36.2%
90 days77343.284.328.470.353.33214.9%4.4%18.1%83.2110.45.2%31.3%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 268 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
Jake McCarthy · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating73Above average
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .339running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.983.9-29.058Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball77.280.662.026Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.989.471.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.182.8-13.095Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.248.1-58.260Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.494.91.444Single
Sep 23LHPSinker97.044.9-23.227Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.098.416.628Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper77.7100.39.676Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.775.1-17.072Force out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.9104.73.505Triple
Sep 20RHPFastball96.845.874.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24311000
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400002
Sep 20413001
Sep 19511000
Sep 18535001
Sep 17313000
Sep 16400011
Sep 15522000

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Jake McCarthy bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake McCarthy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%41.0%
Whiff%18.8%21.3%
Contact%81.2%78.7%
Chase%48.0%39.6%
wOBA.216.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.338
K%14.8%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%24.7%
Avg EV83.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.320against pitches like his
RV/100-0.04
Hard-hit%26.4%
K%15.1%
BB%4.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake McCarthy: every projection we've made →