MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 2Kyle Teel
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.342wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .288 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .367 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .362 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .349 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .326 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .315 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .327 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Teel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Teel's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.4 mph at 41°Out: 91.4 mph at 26°Single: 103.6 mph at -9°Out: 42.8 mph at -46°Single: 91.3 mph at 19°Out: 38.6 mph at -34°Home run: 105.6 mph at 28°Single: 100.3 mph at 15°Out: 66.1 mph at 59°Out: 98.1 mph at -4°Out: 77.3 mph at 36°Out: 82.5 mph at 48°Single: 82.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at 37°Out: 68.0 mph at -2°Out: 95.6 mph at 34°Out: 95.1 mph at -6°Out: 101.0 mph at 21°Double: 107.2 mph at 18°Out: 62.8 mph at -37°Out: 53.5 mph at -58°Single: 86.3 mph at 17°Single: 105.0 mph at -4°Out: 59.5 mph at -31°Home run: 112.4 mph at 23°Single: 102.7 mph at -11°Out: 97.1 mph at 49°Home run: 106.0 mph at 32°Out: 62.2 mph at 3°Out: 93.0 mph at 41°Out: 78.8 mph at 74°Out: 40.3 mph at -15°Out: 97.4 mph at 38°Out: 44.0 mph at -83°Out: 103.2 mph at 20°Double: 66.7 mph at 26°Single: 85.7 mph at 14°Out: 80.1 mph at 45°Single: 96.7 mph at 15°Out: 100.5 mph at 19°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.2%52.6%+7.6
2+ total bases38.8%31.6%+7.3
Home run16.9%11.6%+5.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+6.9
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+6.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+4.6
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Teel hits
Kyle Teel · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .646 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.367xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .127 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 18 pitches seen.247xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .038 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 9 pitches seen.231xwOBA .470 shrunk (raw .624 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 23 pitches seen.470xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .183 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 21 pitches seen.326xwOBA .443 shrunk (raw .807 on 4 PA) · league .321 · 14 pitches seen.443xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .280 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.301xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .377 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 21 pitches seen.362xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .260 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 18 pitches seen.284xwOBA .428 shrunk (raw .489 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 53 pitches seen.428xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .471 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.340xwOBA .186 shrunk (raw .094 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 52 pitches seen.186xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .153 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 78 pitches seen.205
vs RHP · 370 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 20%36%Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 19%63%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 14%30%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 28%63%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 32%45%Whiff 46% of 35 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 370 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 62%47%Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 66%89%Swings at 61% of 23 pitches · league 70%61%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 68%76%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 15% of 53 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 25% of 32 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 39% of 52 pitches · league 40%39%Swings at 45% of 78 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 370 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Teel against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.288.28634.7%27.3%9About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.367.36522.6%15.2%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.362.36020.8%13.8%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.349.34733.3%23.3%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.326.32428.4%24.6%17About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.315.31430.8%26.9%13About league average vs these
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.327.32532.6%28.2%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Teel · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.471.583.494.45622.2%11.1%29.0%83.4105.610.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1439.185.395.296.379.34630.8%20.5%29.6%80.8105.65.9%41.2%23.5%
Last 30 G2875.197.324.410.348.35732.0%13.3%28.3%85.0112.412.8%48.7%35.9%
90 days3291.213.333.400.346.33834.1%13.2%29.3%84.6112.410.9%50.0%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 26%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.250.500.250.383.34316.7%33.3%21.4%82.398.10.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1019.231.474.308.382.38131.6%26.3%27.0%90.9107.214.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 30 G1630.167.333.208.272.30636.7%16.7%34.4%81.3107.27.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days1833.148.303.185.274.28439.4%15.2%35.3%80.2107.27.1%42.9%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 50%Fly ball 7%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.312.478.500.465.42620.8%16.7%26.7%83.1105.67.7%38.5%38.5%
Last 15 G1558.200.421.300.380.35831.0%22.4%28.7%83.8107.28.3%45.8%33.3%
Last 30 G30105.188.327.353.326.34233.3%14.3%30.2%84.1112.411.5%48.1%38.5%
90 days34124.196.325.343.326.32435.5%13.7%31.0%83.6112.410.0%48.3%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 32%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 5%
Kyle Teel · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .335running 17 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball80.6100.441.257Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.891.426.114Sac fly
Sep 25RHPFastball94.2103.6-9.277Single
Sep 25RHPSlider85.942.8-46.214Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.291.319.471Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.838.6-34–Sac bunt
Sep 24RHPFastball96.3105.6281.857Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball93.0100.315.716Single
Sep 22LHPSinker93.066.159.009Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.198.1-4.241Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball96.977.336.075Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.682.548.008Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24625110
Sep 23411012
Sep 22500012
Sep 20511011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400001
Sep 16400012
Sep 15200020
Sep 14512013

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Kyle Teel bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Teel with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.1%41.0%
Whiff%22.7%21.3%
Contact%77.3%78.7%
Chase%40.8%39.6%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.343
K%31.3%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%12.8%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV85.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

89 PA
wOBA.342
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1000.17
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%35.1%
BB%12.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Teel: every projection we've made →