MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 6Mickey Moniak
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs RHP.276xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .328 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .300 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .323 vs league .332 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .344 vs league .353 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .341 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mickey Moniak's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mickey Moniak's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.6 mph at 25°Out: 99.8 mph at 7°Out: 100.4 mph at -6°Out: 86.3 mph at -4°Home run: 106.8 mph at 40°Out: 93.3 mph at 56°Out: 100.2 mph at 6°Out: 87.9 mph at 10°Out: 91.0 mph at 53°Out: 101.4 mph at -13°Triple: 96.8 mph at 20°Out: 99.7 mph at 21°Single: 73.0 mph at 12°Single: 99.9 mph at -10°Out: 102.3 mph at 27°Out: 84.2 mph at 30°Triple: 99.9 mph at 13°Out: 94.2 mph at 46°Out: 71.8 mph at 16°Out: 72.8 mph at 61°Double: 107.7 mph at 15°Out: 76.0 mph at 4°Out: 98.3 mph at -18°Out: 92.4 mph at 65°Home run: 108.7 mph at 26°Single: 80.7 mph at 20°Out: 78.0 mph at -35°Out: 86.5 mph at -12°Out: 72.7 mph at 12°Out: 88.2 mph at -9°Out: 80.3 mph at 64°Out: 89.1 mph at 83°Single: 105.3 mph at 14°Out: 95.2 mph at 42°Out: 94.6 mph at 63°Out: 69.3 mph at -8°Out: 87.3 mph at -19°Out: 45.6 mph at -34°Single: 92.0 mph at 12°Out: 83.3 mph at 51°
38% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.8%58.0%-2.2
2+ total bases32.8%34.3%-1.5
Home run12.8%12.9%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mickey Moniak hits
Mickey Moniak · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .226 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.258xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .492 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 27 pitches seen.386xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .259 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 21 pitches seen.262xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .395 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.371xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .328 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 31 pitches seen.352xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .338 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.330xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .350 on 23 PA) · league .308 · 47 pitches seen.336xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .317 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 43 pitches seen.331xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .112 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 22 pitches seen.247xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .230 on 23 PA) · league .377 · 111 pitches seen.280xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .108 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.208xwOBA .170 shrunk (raw .126 on 25 PA) · league .263 · 97 pitches seen.170xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .248 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 150 pitches seen.256
vs RHP · 705 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 22%30%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 47% of 17 swings · league 19%47%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 0% of 26 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 14% of 36 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 17%32%Whiff 58% of 38 swings · league 28%58%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 39% of 52 swings · league 32%39%Whiff 46% of 72 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 705 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 62% of 37 pitches · league 62%62%Swings at 93% of 27 pitches · league 72%93%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 66%81%Swings at 76% of 42 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 84% of 31 pitches · league 76%84%Swings at 77% of 34 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 77% of 47 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 84% of 43 pitches · league 68%84%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 60%86%Swings at 34% of 111 pitches · league 24%34%Swings at 49% of 43 pitches · league 34%49%Swings at 54% of 97 pitches · league 40%54%Swings at 48% of 150 pitches · league 32%48%
vs RHP · 705 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mickey Moniak against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.328.33726.0%18.0%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.300.30934.4%27.7%10About league average vs these
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.323.33232.4%26.4%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.344.35329.4%21.1%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.341.35025.4%17.7%43About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mickey Moniak · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.083.083.333.167.35233.3%0.0%28.0%95.3106.812.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1548.152.188.348.228.27241.7%4.2%35.8%93.0108.711.5%46.2%42.3%
Last 30 G2984.173.202.333.231.26433.3%3.6%30.9%92.5108.75.7%45.3%37.7%
90 days66198.223.258.446.301.27629.8%5.1%29.3%90.8108.78.5%44.2%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G55.200.200.600.320.26820.0%0.0%28.6%80.399.90.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1731.172.194.379.266.18229.0%3.2%34.5%87.3104.54.8%28.6%23.8%
90 days3258.204.224.352.259.18829.3%3.4%31.7%86.3104.55.1%38.5%23.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 15%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 26%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.083.083.333.167.35233.3%0.0%28.0%95.3106.812.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1553.157.189.373.237.27239.6%3.8%35.3%91.3108.710.0%43.3%43.3%
Last 30 G30115.173.200.345.240.24232.2%3.5%31.7%91.0108.75.4%40.5%33.8%
90 days67256.218.250.424.292.25629.7%4.7%29.8%89.8108.77.7%42.9%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%
Mickey Moniak · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating13Poor
Last 100 pitches37trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.290 / .266running 24 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.687.625.108Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.999.87.591Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.6100.4-6.288Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.686.3-4.152Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.2106.8402.000Home run
Sep 19RHPCutter94.593.356.022Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup84.8100.26.598Force out
Sep 19RHPSlider88.187.910.461Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.791.053.003Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup89.9101.4-13.197Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.696.820.340Triple
Sep 17RHPSlider85.699.721.464Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22314102
Sep 20100001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18513002
Sep 17422010
Sep 15413001
Sep 14500011
Sep 13412003

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Mickey Moniak bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mickey Moniak with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.7%41.0%
Whiff%29.2%21.3%
Contact%70.8%78.7%
Chase%44.6%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.5%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%28.7%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%16.5%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%28.3%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

199 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.276against pitches like his
RV/100-0.41
Hard-hit%28.3%
K%29.0%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mickey Moniak: every projection we've made →