MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 7Randal Grichuk
Bats rightTalent grade APowerHot
.315wOBA vs RHP.251xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .282 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .349 vs league .350 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .356 vs league .357 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .303 vs league .305 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .286 vs league .287 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .302 vs league .303 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .291 vs league .292 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Randal Grichuk's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Randal Grichuk's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 83.0 mph at 17°Out: 72.3 mph at 76°Out: 70.0 mph at 60°Out: 101.6 mph at 51°Out: 89.8 mph at -48°Home run: 105.2 mph at 29°Double: 109.7 mph at 17°Double: 99.1 mph at 16°Single: 100.2 mph at 1°Out: 82.2 mph at 39°Out: 97.6 mph at 38°Out: 96.1 mph at 20°Out: 66.7 mph at -20°Out: 98.8 mph at 22°Single: 108.1 mph at -5°Out: 87.4 mph at 53°Out: 95.9 mph at -6°Out: 102.0 mph at 49°Out: 71.8 mph at -33°Out: 87.1 mph at 63°Single: 97.7 mph at -3°Out: 76.9 mph at -3°Out: 58.6 mph at 63°Triple: 107.3 mph at 25°Out: 102.3 mph at 7°Single: 79.2 mph at 23°Out: 93.6 mph at 35°Out: 101.6 mph at 17°Out: 73.7 mph at -14°Single: 108.0 mph at 11°Home run: 96.6 mph at 31°Out: 85.1 mph at -12°Single: 101.6 mph at 9°Out: 91.4 mph at 39°Double: 104.7 mph at 12°Single: 103.0 mph at 10°Out: 88.4 mph at 44°Single: 99.9 mph at 4°Single: 90.6 mph at 12°Single: 111.0 mph at 3°
55% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.7%62.7%+3.0
2+ total bases40.0%37.2%+2.7
Home run12.5%11.0%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Randal Grichuk hits
Randal Grichuk · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .007 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.221xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .017 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 4 pitches seen.285xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .389 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 12 pitches seen.359xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .108 on 4 PA) · league .386 · 16 pitches seen.317xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .278 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 17 pitches seen.305xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .153 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.269xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .341 on 6 PA) · league .351 · 11 pitches seen.348xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .669 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 15 pitches seen.367xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .377 · 21 pitches seen.348xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.253xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .159 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.242xwOBA .172 shrunk (raw .084 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 58 pitches seen.172
vs RHP · 196 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 17%38%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 28%17%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 32%13%Whiff 81% of 26 swings · league 49%81%
vs RHP · 196 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 72%25%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 65%71%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 68%91%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 60%53%Swings at 29% of 21 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 8% of 12 pitches · league 34%8%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 40%67%Swings at 45% of 58 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 196 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Randal Grichuk against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.282.28334.0%29.0%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.349.35020.9%19.2%13About league average vs these
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.356.35713.0%11.8%11About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.303.30530.3%28.0%14About league average vs these
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.286.28737.7%29.4%11About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.302.30334.3%26.5%4Little history vs this shape
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.291.29239.8%31.4%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Randal Grichuk · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.300.300.400.305.21110.0%0.0%11.8%84.3108.10.0%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1324.304.292.609.369.20920.8%0.0%30.2%87.1111.00.0%31.6%26.3%
Last 30 G2035.235.229.471.297.19525.7%0.0%25.4%86.8111.00.0%32.0%28.0%
90 days3355.259.255.463.306.21223.6%0.0%30.5%88.8111.00.0%39.0%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 17%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.3751.000.519.5540.0%0.0%10.0%100.6109.725.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1428.480.500.800.537.4957.1%7.1%8.0%96.7109.712.5%75.0%45.8%
Last 30 G2646.405.435.786.503.43115.2%6.5%13.3%96.3109.716.7%69.4%47.2%
90 days5598.337.367.609.422.34419.4%5.1%15.2%93.8113.610.8%58.1%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.353.333.647.400.3645.6%0.0%11.1%92.0109.711.8%58.8%35.3%
Last 15 G1552.396.404.708.460.36313.5%3.8%18.3%92.5111.07.0%55.8%37.2%
Last 30 G3081.329.346.645.416.33119.8%3.7%18.5%92.4111.09.8%54.1%39.3%
90 days61153.308.327.555.380.29720.9%3.3%20.4%92.1113.67.0%51.3%33.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 115 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 17%
Randal Grichuk · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating44Below average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.373 / .310running 63 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter89.083.017.910Single
Sep 25RHPSinker92.072.376.000Out
Sep 25RHPSinker91.970.060.008Out
Sep 23LHPFastball96.8101.651.029Out
Sep 23RHPSinker100.689.8-48.120Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.8105.2291.694Home run
Sep 22LHPFastball92.7109.717.906Double
Sep 22RHPFastball92.099.116.623Double
Sep 22LHPSlider88.5100.21.446Single
Sep 20RHPSplitter85.682.239.008Out
Sep 20LHPCutter88.797.638.265Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.096.120.360Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22549101
Sep 20300000
Sep 18511000
Sep 17400010
Sep 16524001
Sep 15511001
Sep 14211000
Sep 12414102

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Randal Grichuk bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Randal Grichuk with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.2%42.4%
Whiff%24.8%22.2%
Contact%75.2%77.8%
Chase%42.9%39.9%
wOBA.253.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.5%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.339
K%21.2%
BB%4.5%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%37.5%
Avg EV92.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

52 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.251against pitches like his
RV/100-0.02
Hard-hit%29.7%
K%24.0%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Randal Grichuk: every projection we've made →