MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 4TJ Rumfield
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.368wOBA vs RHP.342xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .352 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .325 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .347 vs league .332 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .368 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .365 vs league .350 (hitter's edge).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is TJ Rumfield's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

TJ Rumfield's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 85.0 mph at -5°Home run: 101.4 mph at 23°Out: 70.2 mph at 57°Out: 75.5 mph at -28°Out: 84.7 mph at -14°Single: 79.1 mph at 12°Double: 97.2 mph at 18°Out: 92.8 mph at 36°Out: 64.6 mph at 56°Out: 102.5 mph at 17°Out: 63.9 mph at 68°Out: 93.8 mph at 48°Out: 87.2 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at -19°Out: 99.5 mph at 40°Out: 79.1 mph at -7°Out: 101.4 mph at 23°Out: 95.8 mph at -27°Single: 85.8 mph at 9°Out: 61.7 mph at 12°Single: 104.5 mph at -20°Single: 65.2 mph at 38°Out: 89.6 mph at -29°Out: 105.1 mph at 17°Single: 70.2 mph at 22°Single: 92.2 mph at 19°Out: 63.4 mph at 15°Single: 72.9 mph at 29°Out: 89.8 mph at 35°Single: 86.9 mph at 13°Out: 66.2 mph at 20°Single: 96.2 mph at 4°Out: 59.1 mph at 8°Out: 53.9 mph at -49°Single: 94.1 mph at 16°Out: 86.9 mph at 40°Out: 91.1 mph at 36°Single: 91.9 mph at 13°Out: 86.2 mph at 36°Double: 90.1 mph at -33°
25% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%64.1%-1.3
2+ total bases32.8%33.5%-0.7
Home run8.3%7.4%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where TJ Rumfield hits
TJ Rumfield · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .276 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.275xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .196 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.266xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .219 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.242xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .401 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.370xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .226 on 13 PA) · league .386 · 44 pitches seen.303xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .270 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 33 pitches seen.294xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .321 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 38 pitches seen.314xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .334 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.342xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .371 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 30 pitches seen.330xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .432 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 135 pitches seen.407xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .156 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 63 pitches seen.207xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .458 on 30 PA) · league .263 · 138 pitches seen.402xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .448 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 130 pitches seen.397
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 22%12%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 20%9%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 0% of 30 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 6% of 36 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 0% of 27 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 14%4%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 30% of 20 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 13% of 30 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 17% of 46 swings · league 32%17%Whiff 44% of 55 swings · league 49%44%
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 41 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 79% of 28 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 83% of 30 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 71% of 42 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 82% of 44 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 82% of 33 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 68% of 38 pitches · league 65%68%Swings at 81% of 26 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 73% of 30 pitches · league 60%73%Swings at 15% of 135 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 48% of 63 pitches · league 34%48%Swings at 33% of 138 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 42% of 130 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

TJ Rumfield against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.352.33712.5%18.0%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.325.30923.8%27.7%7Little history vs this shape
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.347.33223.0%26.4%33About league average vs these
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.368.35314.9%21.1%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.365.35012.4%17.7%49About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
TJ Rumfield · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.273.385.636.427.2877.7%15.4%7.4%89.3102.510.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.300.378.400.358.32813.3%11.1%10.5%84.6105.13.0%30.3%51.5%
Last 30 G2985.329.447.443.405.35011.8%17.6%12.5%85.2105.15.1%27.1%47.5%
90 days70197.316.406.392.377.34013.2%11.7%15.5%84.2105.12.1%23.1%42.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.125.112.1910.0%0.0%0.0%84.8101.412.5%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1021.278.381.333.331.2909.5%9.5%7.1%82.8104.56.2%18.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2245.324.444.541.429.37511.1%15.6%10.6%86.6105.19.4%34.4%28.1%
90 days53110.286.409.440.380.34411.8%16.4%13.4%84.3110.26.4%25.6%28.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.421.307.2514.8%9.5%5.1%87.3102.511.1%38.9%27.8%
Last 15 G1566.293.379.379.349.31612.1%10.6%9.6%84.0105.14.1%26.5%42.9%
Last 30 G30130.327.446.477.414.35911.5%16.9%11.9%85.7105.16.6%29.7%40.7%
90 days74307.305.407.408.378.34212.7%13.4%14.9%84.2110.23.6%24.0%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 221 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
TJ Rumfield · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches27trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.376 / .358running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter90.385.0-5.108Single
Sep 25RHPSlider86.7101.423.794Home run
Sep 25LHPFastball91.170.257.021Out
Sep 25LHPSlider81.775.5-28.029Out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.884.7-14.068Out
Sep 24LHPFastball89.679.112.383Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup90.697.218.477Double
Sep 24LHPCutter88.692.836.073Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.664.656.010Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.7102.517.514Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.563.968.000Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.093.848.010Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425100
Sep 24523010
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20400010
Sep 19422001
Sep 18511002
Sep 17311011
Sep 15622000
Sep 14522000

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
TJ Rumfield bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
TJ Rumfield with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.6%41.0%
Whiff%16.5%21.3%
Contact%83.5%78.7%
Chase%39.8%39.6%
wOBA.268.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.0%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.357
K%14.2%
BB%12.8%
Whiff%7.7%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%19.0%
Avg EV84.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

200 PA
wOBA.368
xwOBA vs this mix.342against pitches like his
RV/1000.78
Hard-hit%18.5%
K%14.0%
BB%13.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.TJ Rumfield: every projection we've made →