MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 7Cam Smith
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.292wOBA vs LHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .317 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .353 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .339 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Cam Smith: wOBA .309 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cam Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cam Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 100.1 mph at 44°Single: 94.2 mph at 9°Out: 83.9 mph at 48°Out: 62.2 mph at -53°Out: 90.9 mph at 69°Out: 63.7 mph at -4°Double: 110.9 mph at 14°Out: 92.8 mph at 4°Out: 105.1 mph at 33°Out: 40.2 mph at -64°Out: 96.2 mph at 29°Out: 45.2 mph at 21°Out: 81.8 mph at 30°Out: 96.6 mph at 18°Out: 90.2 mph at 61°Out: 84.1 mph at 78°Out: 61.5 mph at 7°Out: 79.3 mph at 14°Out: 72.0 mph at -15°Out: 83.6 mph at 55°Out: 87.6 mph at 55°Out: 52.7 mph at -63°Out: 76.1 mph at 52°Out: 71.4 mph at 72°Single: 109.4 mph at -1°Out: 101.6 mph at -28°Single: 95.4 mph at 14°Home run: 105.7 mph at 31°Out: 90.1 mph at 52°Home run: 105.8 mph at 28°Single: 72.0 mph at 10°Out: 105.3 mph at -39°Out: 34.1 mph at -33°Home run: 104.3 mph at 30°Single: 82.9 mph at 23°Triple: 106.6 mph at 20°Out: 70.6 mph at 77°Out: 82.9 mph at 66°Out: 102.1 mph at 0°Single: 99.4 mph at -7°
38% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.8%55.9%+2.9
2+ total bases37.8%33.6%+4.3
Home run16.4%12.4%+4.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+3.3
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Cam Smith hits
Cam Smith · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .104 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.215xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .014 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.225xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .039 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 7 pitches seen.237xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .285 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.300xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .382 on 12 PA) · league .385 · 23 pitches seen.384xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .056 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.318xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .712 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.383xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .142 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 19 pitches seen.298xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .151 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 13 pitches seen.255xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.259xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .627 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 35 pitches seen.402xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .378 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 72 pitches seen.332xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .257 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 34 pitches seen.257
vs LHP · 286 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 21%22%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 23%60%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 11%71%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 14%31%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 16%44%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 29%22%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 48%35%Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 286 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 63%83%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 71%82%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 67%79%Swings at 87% of 23 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 54% of 13 pitches · league 72%54%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 59%91%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 30%41%Swings at 26% of 35 pitches · league 26%26%Swings at 24% of 72 pitches · league 31%24%Swings at 35% of 34 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 286 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Cam Smith against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.317.32428.3%27.9%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.353.35916.7%16.6%14About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.339.34520.8%20.7%10About league average vs these
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.309.31537.2%32.0%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cam Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.143.000.100.37242.9%14.3%50.0%78.7105.133.3%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G916.133.188.333.225.34725.0%6.2%34.4%83.0105.818.2%27.3%36.4%
Last 30 G1829.107.138.286.179.28334.5%3.4%32.4%84.1105.811.1%33.3%50.0%
90 days3766.153.227.407.269.29625.8%7.6%26.6%87.6114.011.6%39.5%27.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 23%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.250.308.583.442.23138.5%7.7%32.1%86.8110.914.3%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1441.189.268.459.333.28834.1%7.3%22.0%84.0110.913.0%39.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2873.179.247.403.292.25631.5%6.8%24.3%85.2113.49.1%36.4%31.8%
90 days62180.208.250.423.301.28826.7%4.4%25.1%87.4113.99.2%42.9%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 119 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.167.250.389.322.28040.0%10.0%38.1%84.4110.920.0%30.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1557.173.246.423.303.30431.6%7.0%25.4%83.7110.914.7%35.3%35.3%
Last 30 G30102.158.216.368.260.26432.4%5.9%26.8%84.9113.49.7%35.5%37.1%
90 days67246.194.244.419.292.29026.4%5.3%25.5%87.5114.09.9%42.0%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 15%
Cam Smith · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating39Below average
Last 100 pitches24trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .304results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball96.8100.144.099Home run
Sep 24RHPSlider87.294.29.579Single
Sep 24RHPSlider85.583.948.003Out
Sep 23RHPSinker98.762.2-53.290Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup91.090.969.003Out
Sep 22RHPSlider85.063.7-4.080Error
Sep 22RHPFastball96.3110.914.809Double
Sep 22RHPSinker94.692.84.443Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker98.4105.1331.640Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball82.240.2-64.263Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.096.229.398Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.745.221.122Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414112
Sep 24411002
Sep 23300010
Sep 22512001
Sep 20400003
Sep 19400002
Sep 17400002
Sep 16200000
Sep 15300000
Sep 13400001

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Cam Smith bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cam Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.8%41.5%
Whiff%20.1%21.6%
Contact%79.9%78.4%
Chase%41.5%39.9%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.7%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.298
K%26.1%
BB%5.8%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV87.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.292
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/100-0.88
Hard-hit%27.8%
K%24.9%
BB%5.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cam Smith: every projection we've made →