HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026

The game

HOU runs5.3win 60%

OAK runs4.1win 40%

Total9.4book line 9.0

No run, 1st inning50%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +1.4% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 127 · HR 122 100 = average
Umpire: Ryan Wills

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

HOU starter

Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK

6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings

Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%26.5%

BB%11.5%

Whiff%11.0%

Velo92.4

BTB Stuff100

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker31%11596.29.0%

Fastball30%8996.28.1%

Curveball19%9583.516.3%

Changeup10%9187.514.8%

Slider9%10291.09.9%

Cutter2%10293.017.4%

Sweeper1%7687.520.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	98	48%	17%	19%	.238
Sep 15	91	50%	15%	15%	.212
Sep 9	90	33%	11%	24%	.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Henry Bolte27%

2Lawrence Butler25%

3Shea Langeliers34%

4Jeff McNeil11%

5Zack Gelof24%

6Donovan Walton17%

7Carlos Cortes23%

8Tommy White15%

9Jonah Heim20%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

OAK starter

Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU

4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings

Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%24.5%

BB%8.0%

Whiff%12.4%

Velo83.2

BTB Stuff93

Location105

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Slider36%10775.316.8%

Fastball35%9290.18.7%

Cutter20%7485.910.8%

Changeup7%8181.211.7%

Other2%––11.8%

Sinker1%10089.90.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	63	6%	6%	50%	.700
Sep 13	102	16%	9%	32%	.559
Sep 7	93	4%	2%	23%	.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jeremy Peña28%

2Yordan Alvarez17%

3Isaac Paredes15%

4Jose Altuve21%

5Yainer Diaz22%

6Christian Walker21%

7Cam Smith25%

8Lucas Spence27%

9Jorge Barrosa20%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineuppitch-mix battle

Jacob Lopez's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Jacob Lopez's pitches					HOU lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Slider	36%	75.3	107	16.8%	-0.02	.310	16.1%	23.4%	-0.52
Fastball	35%	90.1	92	8.7%	0.85	.327	10.7%	23.3%	-0.15
Cutter	20%	85.9	74	10.8%	0.23	.294	9.3%	25.6%	-0.53
Changeup	7%	81.2	81	11.7%	-6.32	.306	19.2%	20.7%	+0.28
Other	2%	–	–	11.8%	-4.25	.315	0.0%	0.0%	+0.13

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineuppitch-mix battle

Hunter Brown's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Hunter Brown's pitches					OAK lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sinker	31%	96.2	115	9.0%	1.43	.324	7.0%	29.6%	-0.48
Fastball	30%	96.2	89	8.1%	0.41	.362	10.1%	27.5%	+0.62
Curveball	19%	83.5	95	16.3%	-0.68	.265	12.0%	24.2%	-0.36
Changeup	10%	87.5	91	14.8%	-2.05	.261	15.1%	15.6%	-0.15
Slider	9%	91.0	102	9.9%	-2.93	.290	16.8%	21.1%	+0.02
Cutter	2%	93.0	102	17.4%	4.03	.372	10.2%	29.2%	-0.01

Bullpens

Astros bullpen#22 of 30

K%22.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.8%

SwStr%12.0%

wOBA allowed.333

Arms available16 / 17

Pitched yesterday: Lambert, Ullola, King, Abreu (Back-to-Back), Sousa.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Athletics bullpen#16 of 30

K%22.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.9%

SwStr%11.2%

wOBA allowed.329

Arms available18 / 19

Pitched yesterday: Barnett, Alvarado (Back-to-Back), Blewett, Roycroft.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-1 pts

Curveball+10 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Slider+0 pts

Changeup-3 pts

Sweeper+0 pts

Cutter-1 pts

Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	30%	28%	22.7%	21.1%	18.0%
Curveball	19%	28%	42.2%	23.8%	20.0%
Sinker	31%	25%	13.4%	20.4%	17.0%
Slider	9%	10%	12.0%	19.5%	21.1%
Changeup	10%	7%	35.7%	16.7%	18.6%
Sweeper	1%	1%	50.0%	20.0%	19.3%
Cutter	2%	1%	100.0%	33.3%	17.9%

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+8 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Cutter-9 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Other+0 pts

Sinker-0 pts

Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	37%	45%	28.2%	19.7%	21.6%
Fastball	35%	38%	17.6%	16.1%	18.6%
Cutter	20%	11%	37.5%	23.3%	17.9%
Changeup	7%	4%	9.1%	5.9%	18.3%
Other	2%	2%	0.0%	16.7%	14.3%
Sinker	1%	0%	–	0.0%	17.7%

Astros lineup

Confirmed · facing Jacob Lopez LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Jeremy Peña SS · bats R	68.4%	44.0%	18.1%	4.0	+2.0	.294	C	Balanced	Normal
2	Yordan Alvarez DH · bats L	67.3%	45.0%	18.3%	3.9	+1.4	.329	A	Power	Hot
3	Isaac Paredes 3B · bats R	67.3%	42.3%	14.9%	3.8	+3.0	.369	A	Contact	Hot
4	Jose Altuve 2B · bats R	64.4%	37.9%	11.2%	3.8	+3.3	.365	F	Balanced	Normal
5	Yainer Diaz C · bats R	71.8%	48.1%	18.1%	3.7	+3.5	.353	B	Power	Normal
6	Christian Walker 1B · bats R	61.8%	38.8%	16.2%	3.6	+2.9	.343	D	Balanced	Normal
7	Cam Smith RF · bats R	58.8%	37.8%	16.4%	3.5	+2.9	.292	D	Balanced	Cold
8	Lucas Spence CF · bats L	55.5%	32.7%	11.8%	3.4	+1.3	.305	Avg	Balanced	Hot
9	Jorge Barrosa LF · bats S	51.3%	27.5%	8.0%	3.3	+2.3	.385	F	Balanced	Normal

Athletics lineup

Confirmed · facing Hunter Brown RHP