MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 4Jose Altuve
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.365wOBA vs LHP.286xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .332 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .368 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .354 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Jose Altuve: wOBA .324 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jose Altuve's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jose Altuve's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.5 mph at 70°Out: 77.4 mph at 41°Out: 88.5 mph at 64°Out: 90.7 mph at 20°Out: 78.6 mph at -26°Out: 96.0 mph at -2°Out: 98.9 mph at 17°Single: 95.2 mph at 5°Single: 91.2 mph at 4°Single: 101.1 mph at -7°Single: 82.7 mph at 19°Out: 80.9 mph at 34°Home run: 89.5 mph at 32°Single: 41.5 mph at -53°Out: 101.5 mph at 5°Single: 91.5 mph at 13°Out: 98.8 mph at -9°Single: 33.9 mph at -9°Single: 106.3 mph at 6°Single: 65.5 mph at -50°Out: 72.1 mph at 37°Out: 105.6 mph at 16°Double: 105.8 mph at 16°Out: 62.8 mph at 54°Out: 84.0 mph at 0°Out: 86.8 mph at -14°Out: 84.5 mph at 33°Out: 52.0 mph at 2°Single: 82.4 mph at 22°Out: 92.1 mph at -19°Out: 76.3 mph at 33°Out: 76.7 mph at -28°Out: 85.5 mph at 33°Out: 91.5 mph at 63°Out: 78.6 mph at 65°Out: 56.5 mph at -47°Out: 91.7 mph at 42°Double: 99.9 mph at 28°Out: 97.5 mph at 38°Single: 42.1 mph at -58°
28% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.4%61.1%+3.3
2+ total bases37.9%33.4%+4.5
Home run11.2%7.9%+3.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+2.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+3.0
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jose Altuve hits
Jose Altuve · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .166 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 6 pitches seen.224xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .478 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 6 pitches seen.341xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .002 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.218xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .367 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.325xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .358 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 13 pitches seen.375xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .196 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.311xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .091 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 8 pitches seen.228xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .314 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 18 pitches seen.337xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .337 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.307xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 15 pitches seen.279xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 19 pitches seen.323xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .381 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 52 pitches seen.328xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .218 on 13 PA) · league .257 · 42 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 225 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 23%67%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 11%33%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 17%40%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 16%11%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 25%29%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 43% of 21 swings · league 48%43%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 34%11%
vs LHP · 225 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 64%38%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 67%83%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 72%55%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 59%63%Swings at 83% of 18 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 30%47%Swings at 11% of 19 pitches · league 26%11%Swings at 40% of 52 pitches · league 31%40%Swings at 43% of 42 pitches · league 41%43%
vs LHP · 225 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jose Altuve against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.332.32427.5%27.9%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.368.35918.9%16.6%14About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.354.34524.0%20.7%13About league average vs these
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.324.31529.8%32.0%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jose Altuve · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.714.414.14214.3%0.0%0.0%79.8101.50.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G817.375.412.750.485.29111.8%5.9%13.3%83.8103.67.1%35.7%28.6%
Last 30 G1635.333.371.606.416.27225.7%2.9%26.9%85.1103.64.2%37.5%45.8%
90 days3265.317.369.533.389.27720.0%4.6%23.7%83.7103.62.1%31.9%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.267.286.240.21240.0%0.0%32.4%90.6101.10.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1545.250.244.273.228.21920.0%0.0%21.0%82.8108.70.0%25.0%22.2%
Last 30 G2992.221.250.314.247.24417.4%4.3%15.8%85.5108.71.4%31.9%27.8%
90 days68233.240.279.364.294.24218.0%5.6%16.7%84.8108.71.7%31.1%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 177 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.286.273.429.295.19031.8%0.0%25.6%86.3101.50.0%33.3%26.7%
Last 15 G1562.283.290.400.298.23917.7%1.6%18.9%83.0108.72.0%28.0%24.0%
Last 30 G30127.252.283.395.294.25119.7%3.9%19.0%85.4108.72.1%33.3%32.3%
90 days71298.256.299.401.315.24918.5%5.4%18.2%84.6108.71.8%31.2%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 224 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 10%
Jose Altuve · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches16trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.316 / .253running 62 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCutter86.980.570.010Out
Sep 25LHPCutter86.977.441.093Out
Sep 25LHPCutter86.888.564.013Out
Sep 25RHPSlider87.690.720.306Sac fly
Sep 24RHPCurveball77.478.6-26.040Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.196.0-2.326Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker98.598.917.535Out
Sep 23RHPSinker97.695.25.449Single
Sep 23RHPSinker98.991.24.391Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.6101.1-7.250Single
Sep 22RHPSplitter79.482.719.843Single
Sep 22RHPSinker95.380.934.042Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24400002
Sep 23522002
Sep 22522002
Sep 20425101
Sep 19433000
Sep 18411001
Sep 17412001
Sep 16411000
Sep 15400000

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Jose Altuve bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jose Altuve with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%41.5%
Whiff%21.6%21.6%
Contact%78.4%78.4%
Chase%44.5%39.9%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.325
K%18.5%
BB%5.8%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%2.0%
Hard-hit%23.5%
Avg EV84.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

65 PA
wOBA.365
xwOBA vs this mix.286against pitches like his
RV/1001.02
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%20.6%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jose Altuve: every projection we've made →