MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 8Lucas Spence
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.305wOBA vs LHP.306xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .291 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .333 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .326 vs league .329 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Lucas Spence: wOBA .315 vs league .317 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lucas Spence's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lucas Spence's last 29 balls in playHit (9)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 56.4 mph at 9°Out: 102.0 mph at 32°Out: 96.2 mph at 29°Home run: 105.8 mph at 24°Home run: 96.9 mph at 30°Home run: 101.8 mph at 24°Out: 50.8 mph at 55°Single: 92.1 mph at -14°Out: 92.6 mph at -14°Out: 85.0 mph at -38°Out: 103.6 mph at 16°Out: 104.8 mph at -5°Out: 88.0 mph at 23°Out: 86.3 mph at -11°Single: 91.4 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 52°Out: 71.6 mph at -28°Out: 90.0 mph at -30°Double: 98.0 mph at 22°Out: 106.9 mph at 6°Out: 107.3 mph at -6°Out: 101.1 mph at 33°Out: 82.4 mph at -40°Single: 79.7 mph at 18°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 84.2 mph at 57°Out: 75.9 mph at 9°Out: 96.7 mph at 39°Single: 103.7 mph at -21°
48% hit 95+ mph41% in the sweet spot31% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.5%54.2%+1.3
2+ total bases32.7%31.0%+1.7
Home run11.8%11.1%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.9
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Lucas Spence hits
Lucas Spence · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seen.273xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .368 shrunk (raw 1.083 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.368xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .352 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 3 pitches seen.341xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .038 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 6 pitches seen.239xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .432 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 6 pitches seen.370xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 1 pitches seen.276xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .466 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 5 pitches seen.325xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .115 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 3 pitches seen.328xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .221 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 15 pitches seen.272xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .257 · 7 pitches seen
vs LHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 21%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 9%50%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 10%100%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 16%100%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 25%50%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 48%50%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 71%100%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 100% of 6 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 30%40%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 26%33%Swings at 27% of 15 pitches · league 31%27%Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 41%29%
vs LHP · 53 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Lucas Spence against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.291.29431.5%27.7%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.333.33614.8%12.3%5Little history vs this shape
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.326.32933.5%29.0%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.315.31727.9%25.2%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lucas Spence · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.33633.3%16.7%50.0%83.7102.033.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
90 days1017.188.235.188.200.30435.3%5.9%37.0%92.0107.320.0%50.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.400.4551.300.691.40436.4%9.1%42.9%90.6105.833.3%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Last 30 G1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
90 days1437.182.270.485.354.27835.1%8.1%40.3%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 26%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.867.488.38035.3%11.8%44.8%88.3105.833.3%55.6%66.7%
Last 15 G1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
Last 30 G1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
90 days1554.184.259.388.305.28635.2%7.4%39.4%91.4107.313.8%48.3%41.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 10%
FormHot
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .301results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball90.256.49.115Out
Sep 25LHPFastball90.3102.0321.083Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.196.229.398Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.8105.8241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.596.930.461Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.1101.8241.020Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball96.450.855.005Out
Jul 31RHPOffspeed54.492.1-14.135Single
Jul 29LHPSinker88.592.6-14.117Out
Jul 27RHPChangeup90.485.0-38.055Out
Jul 27RHPSplitter87.5103.616.591Out
Jul 27RHPSlider89.7104.8-5.382Fielder's choice
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 244312300
Sep 23400012
Jul 31111000
Jul 29400012
Jul 28100001
Jul 27400001
Jul 25400002
Jul 24511003
Jul 22300001

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Lucas Spence bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lucas Spence with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.4%44.1%
Whiff%26.4%22.7%
Contact%73.6%77.3%
Chase%38.4%38.2%
wOBA.218.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.1%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%25.2%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV89.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

14 PA
wOBA.305
xwOBA vs this mix.306against pitches like his
RV/100-0.56
Hard-hit%26.4%
K%26.7%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lucas Spence: every projection we've made →