MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SEA · batting 4Josh Naylor
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.325wOBA vs LHP.317xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LAAReid Detmers
Throws leftBTB Stuff 105Stable
6.2projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Reid Detmers's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 94.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .347 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 47%Slider: 35% usage, 85.8 mph, -3.4″ arm side, -4.7″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .283 vs league .281 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 12% usage, 72.2 mph, -11.6″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .322 vs league .319 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 84.0 mph, +10.9″ arm side, +11.3″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .310 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Naylor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Naylor's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.3 mph at 17°Out: 91.1 mph at 32°Out: 82.6 mph at 75°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.3 mph at 25°Out: 87.4 mph at -17°Single: 79.6 mph at 17°Out: 95.2 mph at 43°Out: 88.0 mph at 71°Out: 97.6 mph at -10°Out: 94.8 mph at 22°Out: 58.3 mph at 57°Out: 102.4 mph at -1°Out: 101.7 mph at 20°Out: 84.3 mph at -11°Out: 79.6 mph at 31°Out: 93.0 mph at -9°Out: 101.3 mph at 23°Out: 86.5 mph at -6°Out: 91.0 mph at -23°Out: 79.6 mph at -1°Out: 60.3 mph at 9°Single: 95.5 mph at -11°Out: 74.2 mph at 46°Out: 105.0 mph at 19°Out: 82.7 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at -2°Single: 98.5 mph at -13°Double: 96.0 mph at 20°Out: 60.6 mph at 17°Out: 93.0 mph at 28°Single: 82.4 mph at 12°Single: 88.5 mph at -16°Out: 97.0 mph at 24°Out: 79.9 mph at 8°Out: 53.3 mph at -53°Out: 100.0 mph at -17°Single: 99.3 mph at 0°Out: 78.1 mph at 32°Out: 90.3 mph at 22°
35% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.7%66.4%-2.7
2+ total bases32.6%35.2%-2.6
Home run5.9%6.6%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Josh Naylor hits
Josh Naylor · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .316 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 16 pitches seen.264xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .196 on 9 PA) · league .296 · 23 pitches seen.253xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .406 on 7 PA) · league .254 · 15 pitches seen.310xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .202 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.263xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .388 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 27 pitches seen.387xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .282 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 24 pitches seen.312xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .530 on 9 PA) · league .273 · 27 pitches seen.383xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .442 on 13 PA) · league .350 · 28 pitches seen.398xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .095 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.248xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .285 on 10 PA) · league .302 · 39 pitches seen.294xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .436 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 46 pitches seen.387xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .259 on 21 PA) · league .289 · 112 pitches seen.270xwOBA .229 shrunk (raw .058 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 25 pitches seen.229
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 21%13%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 25%20%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 42% of 38 swings · league 48%42%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 63%56%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 71%65%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 64%80%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 67%65%Swings at 70% of 27 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 59%56%Swings at 68% of 28 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 33% of 15 pitches · league 66%33%Swings at 39% of 39 pitches · league 30%39%Swings at 24% of 46 pitches · league 26%24%Swings at 34% of 112 pitches · league 31%34%Swings at 40% of 25 pitches · league 41%40%
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Naylor against each of Reid Detmers's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%94.0+9″ / +17″.347.34514.2%17.1%31About league average vs these
Slider35%85.8-3″ / -5″.283.28127.3%32.9%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball12%72.2-12″ / -15″.322.31925.5%30.9%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%84.0+11″ / +11″.310.30826.9%32.6%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Naylor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.125.125.125.112.31412.5%0.0%6.7%88.0101.30.0%28.6%57.1%
Last 15 G1331.194.194.226.222.3036.5%0.0%8.0%84.9105.17.1%39.3%46.4%
Last 30 G2456.236.250.255.248.3238.9%1.8%11.5%82.4105.14.1%24.5%42.9%
90 days57124.288.323.373.320.32411.3%2.4%16.9%84.8107.46.8%28.2%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.2637.7%15.4%21.9%89.4102.40.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1333.267.333.300.320.2889.1%9.1%16.1%89.5105.63.7%44.4%40.7%
Last 30 G2670.254.286.299.280.25314.3%4.3%15.1%87.9106.53.6%39.3%39.3%
90 days65184.263.326.311.304.29911.4%8.7%13.9%87.4108.51.4%38.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.2829.5%9.5%17.0%88.8102.40.0%35.3%47.1%
Last 15 G1564.230.266.262.273.2957.8%4.7%12.5%87.2105.65.5%41.8%43.6%
Last 30 G30126.246.270.279.266.28411.9%3.2%13.7%85.3106.53.8%32.4%41.0%
90 days73308.274.325.337.311.30911.4%6.2%15.1%86.3108.53.6%34.3%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 248 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 7%
Josh Naylor · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating63Average
Last 100 pitches29trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .329running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball93.9101.317.557Out
Sep 25LHPFastball95.091.132.126Out
Sep 25LHPFastball93.782.675.005Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup82.696.728.399Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper79.076.325.674Out
Sep 24LHPFastball87.087.4-17.070Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.879.617.916Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.695.243.034Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.588.071.000Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.497.6-10.163Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup83.594.822.243Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.558.357.005Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24400010
Sep 23511010
Sep 22400001
Sep 20400000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18411000
Sep 16523000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400000

Two strikes

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Reid Detmers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%46%14.5%18.8%18.6%
Slider35%41%39.3%28.1%21.6%
Curveball12%7%23.1%21.2%21.2%
Changeup7%5%18.2%9.1%18.3%
Josh Naylor bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Naylor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.5%44.1%
Whiff%20.1%22.7%
Contact%79.9%77.3%
Chase%42.3%38.2%
wOBA.222.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.0%22.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%12.1%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%8.1%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV86.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

121 PA
wOBA.325
xwOBA vs this mix.317against pitches like his
RV/100-0.18
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%12.7%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Reid DetmersLHP · LAA vs SEA
6.2projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 13.4%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.3%12%45 strikeouts: 15.4%15%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 14.1%14%78 strikeouts: 11.0%11%89+ strikeouts: 17.9%18%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%29.8%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%13.4%
Velo87.9
BTB Stuff105
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10694.08.6%
Slider35%11585.818.5%
Curveball12%8672.211.2%
Changeup7%7584.024.5%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198124%14%29%.360
Sep 149532%14%32%.338
Sep 811243%12%5%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Naylor: every projection we've made →