LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026

The game

LAA runs3.8win 53%

SEA runs3.5win 47%

Total7.3book line 6.5

No run, 1st inning56%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: -0.1% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 86 · HR 99 100 = average
Umpire: Andy Fletcher

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

LAA starter

Reid DetmersLHP · LAA vs SEA

6.2projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 6.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%29.8%

BB%5.4%

Whiff%13.4%

Velo87.9

BTB Stuff105

Location112

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball47%10694.08.6%

Slider35%11585.818.5%

Curveball12%8672.211.2%

Changeup7%7584.024.5%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	81	24%	14%	29%	.360
Sep 14	95	32%	14%	32%	.338
Sep 8	112	43%	12%	5%	.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Randy Arozarena15%

2Dominic Canzone20%

3Julio Rodríguez29%

4Josh Naylor13%

5Michael Arroyo23%

6Cole Young21%

7Jhonny Pereda23%

8Weston Wilson33%

9Leo Rivas22%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

SEA starter

Bryce MillerRHP · SEA vs LAA

5.5projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.9 batters over 5.5 innings

Over 6.5: 32% (red bars) · under: 68%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%19.6%

BB%10.5%

Whiff%10.2%

Velo90.2

BTB Stuff106

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball37%11795.68.9%

Splitter25%9784.216.1%

Sinker11%9895.10.0%

Slider10%9886.811.8%

Sweeper8%10283.47.4%

Cutter6%11891.414.9%

Curveball3%9383.08.6%

Other0%–92.00.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	89	27%	8%	9%	.250
Sep 13	92	23%	14%	14%	.373
Sep 8	84	33%	11%	22%	.378

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Zach Neto31%

2Mike Trout29%

3Wade Meckler20%

4Vaughn Grissom23%

5Moisés Ballesteros27%

6Josh Lowe28%

7Christian Moore34%

8Travis d'Arnaud29%

9Bryce Teodosio27%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPvsLAA lineuppitch-mix battle

Bryce Miller's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Bryce Miller's pitches					LAA lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	37%	95.6	117	8.9%	-0.65	.326	10.7%	22.7%	+0.28
Splitter	25%	84.2	97	16.1%	-1.23	.204	21.5%	22.7%	-1.90
Sinker	11%	95.1	98	0.0%	-1.56	.294	7.7%	30.4%	-0.05
Slider	10%	86.8	98	11.8%	0.02	.227	19.6%	19.4%	-0.80
Sweeper	8%	83.4	102	7.4%	1.79	.281	16.4%	15.0%	-0.39
Cutter	6%	91.4	118	14.9%	-8.33	.366	11.5%	32.3%	+0.64
Curveball	3%	83.0	93	8.6%	0.45	.261	15.7%	18.6%	-0.13

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPvsSEA lineuppitch-mix battle

Reid Detmers's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Reid Detmers's pitches					SEA lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	47%	94.0	106	8.6%	-0.24	.335	8.9%	31.3%	+0.65
Slider	35%	85.8	115	18.5%	1.95	.300	14.1%	17.9%	-1.33
Curveball	12%	72.2	86	11.2%	1.03	.329	10.5%	15.2%	+0.07
Changeup	7%	84.0	75	24.5%	1.69	.251	14.9%	21.3%	-0.41

Bullpens

Angels bullpen#25 of 30

K%22.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.2%

SwStr%10.9%

wOBA allowed.354

Arms available15 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Rodriguez, Peralta, Watson.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Mariners bullpen#20 of 30

K%22.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.8%

SwStr%10.6%

wOBA allowed.350

Arms available14 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Woo, Criswell (Back-to-Back), Rucker, Milner.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-1 pts

Slider+7 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Reid Detmers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	47%	46%	14.5%	18.8%	18.6%
Slider	35%	41%	39.3%	28.1%	21.6%
Curveball	12%	7%	23.1%	21.2%	21.2%
Changeup	7%	5%	18.2%	9.1%	18.3%

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Splitter+12 pts

Fastball-1 pts

Sweeper+6 pts

Curveball+2 pts

Sinker-7 pts

Slider-7 pts

Cutter-4 pts

Bryce Miller with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Splitter	25%	37%	23.4%	17.2%	19.0%
Fastball	37%	35%	16.5%	19.5%	18.0%
Sweeper	8%	14%	15.4%	8.2%	19.3%
Curveball	3%	5%	16.7%	11.8%	20.0%
Sinker	11%	4%	0.0%	14.3%	17.0%
Slider	10%	3%	33.3%	36.4%	21.1%
Cutter	6%	2%	0.0%	0.0%	17.9%

Angels lineup

Confirmed · facing Bryce Miller RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Zach Neto SS · bats R	60.2%	37.7%	15.8%	4.0	-0.5	.300	C	Balanced	Normal
2	Mike Trout DH · bats R	58.3%	32.5%	12.4%	3.9	+0.3	.335	C	Balanced	Hot
3	Wade Meckler LF · bats L	65.6%	34.7%	8.1%	3.8	+1.0	.336	D	Balanced	Normal
4	Vaughn Grissom 3B · bats R	60.7%	32.9%	10.6%	3.8	+0.2	.304	F	Balanced	Cold
5	Moisés Ballesteros 1B · bats L	58.5%	31.9%	11.1%	3.7	-0.3	.255	C	Balanced	Normal
6	Josh Lowe RF · bats L	55.0%	32.8%	12.8%	3.6	+0.2	.333	D	Balanced	Normal
7	Christian Moore 2B · bats R	50.8%	26.3%	9.1%	3.5	-0.5	.239	F	Balanced	Normal
8	Travis d'Arnaud C · bats R	46.3%	24.3%	9.0%	3.4	-0.3	.270	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Bryce Teodosio CF · bats R	50.3%	23.4%	6.5%	3.3	-0.2	.281	F	Balanced	Normal

Mariners lineup

Confirmed · facing Reid Detmers LHP