MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 1Shohei Ohtani
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.349wOBA vs RHP.359xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SFYunior Marte
Throws rightBTB Stuff 78Trending Down
3.9projected K13%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yunior Marte's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 45% usage, 93.3 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .369 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 45%Slider: 42% usage, 85.3 mph, -1.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .343 vs league .339 (about even).Slider 42%Splitter: 13% usage, 82.8 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +3.3″ rise. Shohei Ohtani: wOBA .283 vs league .280 (about even).Splitter 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Shohei Ohtani's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Shohei Ohtani's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.3 mph at 6°Out: 98.2 mph at 29°Single: 98.6 mph at 16°Double: 106.8 mph at 18°Out: 103.9 mph at 37°Out: 103.4 mph at 36°Single: 99.0 mph at 8°Out: 89.2 mph at 38°Single: 78.0 mph at 25°Out: 60.6 mph at -40°Out: 95.8 mph at 11°Out: 84.0 mph at -5°Out: 107.5 mph at -3°Out: 85.8 mph at -11°Single: 66.2 mph at 32°Out: 61.8 mph at 18°Out: 104.7 mph at -5°Out: 107.7 mph at -1°Out: 83.7 mph at 37°Out: 81.2 mph at -15°Single: 75.9 mph at 23°Out: 106.6 mph at 54°Out: 90.8 mph at 2°Double: 106.7 mph at 10°Out: 87.9 mph at 24°Out: 81.0 mph at -8°Out: 92.3 mph at -20°Triple: 102.6 mph at 29°Out: 102.7 mph at -14°Out: 93.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.6 mph at -59°Out: 104.4 mph at -22°Single: 112.9 mph at 8°Out: 102.5 mph at -13°Out: 76.4 mph at -2°Out: 72.9 mph at -5°Home run: 105.6 mph at 33°Out: 104.3 mph at 2°Out: 76.9 mph at 0°Home run: 105.5 mph at 26°
53% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.6%67.1%-0.4
2+ total bases44.4%45.8%-1.4
Home run20.8%22.9%-2.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
-1.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.9
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
-1.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-3.0
Home run
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-3.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Shohei Ohtani hits
Shohei Ohtani · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .318 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.292xwOBA .202 shrunk (raw .063 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.202xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .282 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.266xwOBA .434 shrunk (raw .573 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 28 pitches seen.434xwOBA .489 shrunk (raw .612 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 37 pitches seen.489xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .337 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 20 pitches seen.326xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .292 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 34 pitches seen.301xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .509 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.433xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .559 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.413xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .368 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 106 pitches seen.372xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .224 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 60 pitches seen.247xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .398 on 23 PA) · league .263 · 95 pitches seen.352xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .175 on 22 PA) · league .274 · 90 pitches seen.210
vs RHP · 609 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 22%39%Whiff 38% of 24 swings · league 20%38%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 28% of 32 swings · league 9%28%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 14%22%Whiff 25% of 32 swings · league 13%25%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 31% of 29 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 56% of 32 swings · league 32%56%Whiff 55% of 40 swings · league 49%55%
vs RHP · 609 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 28 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 86% of 28 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 61% of 28 pitches · league 70%61%Swings at 87% of 37 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 53% of 34 pitches · league 65%53%Swings at 84% of 38 pitches · league 68%84%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 27% of 106 pitches · league 24%27%Swings at 47% of 60 pitches · league 34%47%Swings at 34% of 95 pitches · league 40%34%Swings at 44% of 90 pitches · league 32%44%
vs RHP · 609 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Shohei Ohtani against each of Yunior Marte's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball45%93.3+8″ / +15″.369.36624.8%15.3%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider42%85.3-2″ / +0″.343.33940.2%28.7%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter13%82.8+7″ / +3″.283.28038.2%30.2%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Shohei Ohtani · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.118.118.176.126.27158.8%0.0%43.6%99.9106.857.1%85.7%42.9%
Last 15 G1450.163.280.233.245.33636.0%14.0%34.3%93.3112.920.0%52.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2688.228.307.443.329.35331.8%10.2%32.1%93.6112.916.0%50.0%42.0%
90 days50159.234.321.426.338.36827.7%11.3%34.0%93.5112.914.7%52.6%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 95 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.333.714.333.529.48628.6%42.9%54.5%99.099.00.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1220.133.350.200.282.33435.0%15.0%37.1%89.6107.50.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2448.195.312.415.339.36929.2%10.4%34.1%91.3111.714.8%48.1%33.3%
90 days44103.275.350.571.403.41525.2%8.7%34.4%90.8112.616.9%46.2%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.150.292.200.244.33450.0%12.5%46.0%99.8106.850.0%87.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1570.155.300.224.256.33535.7%14.3%35.0%92.4112.915.2%51.5%42.4%
Last 30 G30136.217.309.433.333.35930.9%10.3%32.7%92.8112.915.6%49.4%39.0%
90 days58262.250.332.483.364.38726.7%10.3%34.1%92.4112.915.6%50.0%39.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 160 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 5%
Shohei Ohtani · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches98steady
wOBA / xwOBA.363 / .388running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider85.399.36.549Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.798.229.654Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.398.616.623Single
Sep 24RHPFastball102.6106.818.761Double
Sep 24RHPFastball95.6103.9371.034Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.0103.436.959Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.099.08.580Single
Sep 7RHPFastball98.689.238.022Out
Sep 1RHPChangeup87.178.025.582Single
Sep 1RHPChangeup88.560.6-40.117Out
Aug 30LHPChangeup90.595.811.804Out
Aug 30RHPSlider86.284.0-5.189Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24523001
Sep 23511012
Sep 7400012
Sep 2600014
Sep 1411010
Aug 30500002
Aug 29411001
Aug 28500012
Aug 27400002

Two strikes

Yunior Marte SF · RHPwith two strikes
Yunior Marte with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider42%44%21.1%16.1%21.1%
Fastball45%37%7.1%19.2%18.0%
Splitter13%20%14.3%7.1%19.0%
Shohei Ohtani bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Shohei Ohtani with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%41.0%
Whiff%24.6%21.3%
Contact%75.4%78.7%
Chase%44.4%39.6%
wOBA.228.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.9%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.389
K%25.7%
BB%10.9%
Whiff%15.8%
Barrel%10.1%
Hard-hit%31.2%
Avg EV92.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

159 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.359against pitches like his
RV/1000.16
Hard-hit%31.9%
K%25.5%
BB%10.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yunior MarteRHP · SF vs LAD
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.7 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 45.3%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 9.9%10%67 strikeouts: 5.5%5%78 strikeouts: 2.8%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.9%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.3%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo88.5
BTB Stuff78
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball45%5893.22.1%
Slider42%9085.213.0%
Splitter13%11382.712.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19978%5%33%.477
Sep 117720%12%20%.240
Sep 46210%7%57%.343

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yunior Marte SF · RHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Shohei Ohtani: every projection we've made →