The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- +0.3% vs neutral air
- Weather
- – · Wind unknown
- Park factor
- Runs 95 · HR 81 100 = average
- Umpire
- Tripp Gibson
- Schedule
- LAD traveled in; SF 2d rest
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 86 | 12% | 13% | 24% | .485 |
| Sep 14 | 90 | 38% | 16% | 13% | .142 |
| Sep 8 | 94 | 19% | 11% | 26% | .259 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 97 | 8% | 5% | 33% | .477 |
| Sep 11 | 77 | 20% | 12% | 20% | .240 |
| Sep 4 | 62 | 10% | 7% | 57% | .343 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Yunior Marte's pitches | LAD lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 45% | 93.2 | 58 | 2.1% | -0.93 | .314 | 8.5% | 28.8% | +0.44 |
| Slider | 42% | 85.2 | 90 | 13.0% | 0.38 | .310 | 14.3% | 22.4% | -0.49 |
| Splitter | 13% | 82.7 | 113 | 12.5% | 0.49 | .264 | 16.8% | 15.2% | -0.53 |
| Tarik Skubal's pitches | SF lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 39% | 96.8 | 124 | 14.1% | 1.50 | .304 | 11.9% | 26.1% | -1.15 |
| Changeup | 25% | 87.9 | 97 | 26.5% | 1.15 | .270 | 16.2% | 22.5% | -1.17 |
| Sinker | 16% | 96.7 | 106 | 7.5% | 0.76 | .307 | 5.8% | 30.4% | -0.24 |
| Slider | 14% | 89.9 | 116 | 10.1% | 1.47 | .251 | 17.2% | 25.1% | -0.93 |
| Curveball | 6% | 80.5 | 89 | 17.6% | 0.58 | .318 | 9.4% | 25.9% | +0.02 |
Bullpens
Pitched yesterday: Glasnow, Wrobleski, Phillips, Díaz.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 39% | 38% | 26.4% | 24.3% | 18.6% |
| Changeup | 25% | 36% | 41.1% | 26.1% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 16% | 11% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Slider | 14% | 8% | 17.4% | 22.9% | 21.6% |
| Curveball | 6% | 7% | 45.0% | 33.3% | 21.2% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 42% | 44% | 21.1% | 16.1% | 21.1% |
| Fastball | 45% | 37% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| Splitter | 13% | 20% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 19.0% |
Dodgers lineup
Confirmed · facing Yunior Marte RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani DH · bats L | 66.6% | 44.4% | 20.8% | 4.0 | -0.4 | .349 | A | Power | Hot |
| 2 | Mookie Betts SS · bats R | 68.4% | 40.1% | 8.3% | 3.9 | +0.4 | .355 | A | Power | Hot |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman 1B · bats L | 67.7% | 38.5% | 8.4% | 3.8 | -0.1 | .338 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 4 | Will Smith C · bats R | 63.9% | 36.6% | 12.0% | 3.8 | +0.2 | .346 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker RF · bats L | 60.7% | 34.7% | 10.2% | 3.7 | -1.1 | .322 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 6 | Teoscar Hernández LF · bats R | 61.9% | 33.9% | 10.8% | 3.6 | -0.0 | .284 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Max Muncy 3B · bats L | 55.2% | 34.1% | 13.9% | 3.5 | +0.4 | .355 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Andy Pages CF · bats R | 61.4% | 30.9% | 7.9% | 3.4 | -0.3 | .322 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Enrique Hernández 2B · bats R | 51.0% | 25.3% | 7.1% | 3.3 | +0.5 | .301 | F | Balanced | Hot |
Giants lineup
Confirmed · facing Tarik Skubal LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonah Cox CF · bats R | 54.4% | 26.3% | 7.3% | 4.0 | -3.6 | .353 | F | Balanced | Cold |
| 2 | Brett Harris 1B · bats R | 53.7% | 25.9% | 5.5% | 3.9 | -3.3 | .311 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 3 | Victor Bericoto DH · bats R | 59.5% | 33.0% | 9.4% | 3.8 | -3.2 | .314 | Avg | Power | Normal |
| 4 | Bo Davidson RF · bats L | 58.2% | 28.6% | 6.4% | 3.8 | -4.0 | .322 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Andrew Knizner C · bats R | 54.6% | 27.6% | 6.6% | 3.7 | -3.7 | .279 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Marcelo Mayer 2B · bats L | 49.0% | 22.6% | 5.3% | 3.6 | -4.8 | .308 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Shay Whitcomb 3B · bats R | 53.2% | 26.8% | 7.6% | 3.5 | -4.0 | .279 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Scott Bandura LF · bats L | 47.9% | 21.8% | 5.5% | 3.4 | -4.6 | .302 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Christian Koss SS · bats R | 51.1% | 22.3% | 5.1% | 3.3 | -3.3 | .313 | F | Balanced | Cold |