MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 2Brice Turang
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.388wOBA vs RHP.346xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .396 vs league .369 (hitter's edge).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .308 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .371 vs league .344 (hitter's edge).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .334 vs league .308 (hitter's edge).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .392 vs league .365 (hitter's edge).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .340 vs league .314 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Brice Turang: wOBA .361 vs league .335 (hitter's edge).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brice Turang's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brice Turang's last 40 balls in playHit (22)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 103.6 mph at 17°Out: 93.4 mph at 34°Out: 84.3 mph at -23°Double: 100.6 mph at 22°Single: 89.9 mph at -7°Out: 100.1 mph at -3°Single: 76.4 mph at 10°Out: 79.5 mph at -54°Out: 67.6 mph at -10°Double: 85.1 mph at 14°Home run: 108.4 mph at 22°Single: 75.7 mph at 0°Out: 99.3 mph at -6°Out: 75.3 mph at 61°Single: 106.2 mph at 14°Single: 91.7 mph at 20°Out: 82.7 mph at 44°Single: 102.5 mph at 13°Double: 104.0 mph at 11°Out: 99.5 mph at 55°Out: 102.7 mph at -19°Single: 89.7 mph at -5°Out: 58.4 mph at -30°Single: 95.2 mph at 15°Out: 59.9 mph at -49°Single: 94.9 mph at 11°Out: 96.7 mph at 42°Home run: 103.3 mph at 26°Home run: 107.3 mph at 21°Double: 103.7 mph at 27°Single: 38.3 mph at -24°Out: 73.0 mph at -22°Out: 82.1 mph at -23°Out: 85.2 mph at -9°Single: 101.4 mph at 11°Out: 85.5 mph at 30°Single: 85.9 mph at 10°Double: 105.5 mph at 11°Out: 82.4 mph at -5°Double: 98.2 mph at 16°
45% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot55% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.2%62.2%+4.9
2+ total bases39.6%35.1%+4.5
Home run12.7%10.4%+2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
+1.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
+1.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brice Turang hits
Brice Turang · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .099 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 42 pitches seen.210xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .282 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 41 pitches seen.296xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .262 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.263xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .393 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 71 pitches seen.372xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .246 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 70 pitches seen.297xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .455 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 42 pitches seen.400xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .320 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 51 pitches seen.315xwOBA .428 shrunk (raw .474 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 59 pitches seen.428xwOBA .461 shrunk (raw .567 on 19 PA) · league .292 · 45 pitches seen.461xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .406 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 151 pitches seen.395xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .288 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 59 pitches seen.281xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .308 on 33 PA) · league .263 · 152 pitches seen.296xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .273 on 23 PA) · league .274 · 159 pitches seen.273
vs RHP · 973 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 39% of 26 swings · league 22%39%Whiff 16% of 31 swings · league 20%16%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 19%21%Whiff 15% of 47 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 14% of 43 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 3% of 32 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 13% of 30 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 11% of 36 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 24%24%Whiff 30% of 53 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 42% of 41 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 973 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 62% of 42 pitches · league 62%62%Swings at 76% of 41 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 66% of 71 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 61% of 70 pitches · league 76%61%Swings at 76% of 42 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 59% of 51 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 61% of 59 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 69% of 45 pitches · league 60%69%Swings at 16% of 151 pitches · league 24%16%Swings at 36% of 59 pitches · league 34%36%Swings at 35% of 152 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 26% of 159 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 973 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brice Turang against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.396.36916.1%14.5%66About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.308.28224.3%28.2%35About league average vs these
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.371.34416.8%15.3%52About league average vs these
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.334.30823.8%29.4%17About league average vs these
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.392.36522.6%20.3%36About league average vs these
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.340.31419.0%23.9%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.361.33522.8%28.5%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brice Turang · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.375.375.750.472.29437.5%0.0%27.8%88.6108.410.0%40.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1548.359.479.641.505.40222.9%18.8%24.2%90.3108.411.1%44.4%48.1%
Last 30 G2684.324.452.574.458.35928.6%19.0%24.8%90.0108.49.3%41.9%46.5%
90 days67227.293.383.505.407.35224.7%12.8%20.3%89.6109.07.2%43.9%43.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 33%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.167.167.167.150.13233.3%0.0%33.3%88.299.30.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1222.389.500.611.502.40822.7%18.2%23.5%86.5107.38.3%41.7%41.7%
Last 30 G2353.234.308.319.309.32122.6%7.5%21.9%82.3107.32.9%28.6%31.4%
90 days49103.247.337.315.314.31721.4%10.7%22.9%83.6109.81.5%27.9%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 28%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.318.318.591.384.25036.4%0.0%29.2%88.5108.47.1%35.7%35.7%
Last 15 G1570.368.486.632.504.40322.9%18.6%24.0%89.2108.410.3%43.6%46.2%
Last 30 G30137.287.397.470.401.34526.3%14.6%23.7%86.5108.46.4%35.9%39.7%
90 days72330.279.369.446.379.34123.6%12.1%21.1%87.6109.85.3%38.6%41.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 31%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 5%
Brice Turang · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating75Above average
Last 100 pitches10trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .342running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker91.0103.617.563Double
Sep 25RHPChangeup88.793.434.101Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.684.3-23.067Out
Sep 25RHPCutter89.7100.622.675Double
Sep 25LHPSinker89.889.9-7.173Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.9100.1-3.349Double play
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.676.410.333Single
Sep 24LHPSinker94.379.5-54.256Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.767.6-10.062Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.085.114.863Double
Sep 23RHPSinker92.2108.4221.608Home run
Sep 22RHPSplitter86.875.70.110Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25535000
Sep 24511002
Sep 23426101
Sep 22411002
Sep 20400003
Sep 18522003
Sep 17511012
Sep 16512011
Sep 15600041
Sep 13522010

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Brice Turang bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brice Turang with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.5%41.0%
Whiff%21.4%21.3%
Contact%78.6%78.7%
Chase%37.5%39.6%
wOBA.273.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.8%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.364
K%23.8%
BB%11.7%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%24.8%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

225 PA
wOBA.388
xwOBA vs this mix.346against pitches like his
RV/1001.11
Hard-hit%26.3%
K%24.6%
BB%12.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brice Turang: every projection we've made →