STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026

The game

STL runs4.2win 50%

MIL runs4.2win 50%

Total8.4no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning52%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +0.5% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 96 · HR 104 100 = average
Umpire: Stu Scheurwater
Schedule: STL traveled in; MIL traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

STL starter

Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL

4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings

Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%17.4%

BB%7.8%

Whiff%8.7%

Velo87.4

BTB Stuff84

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball23%6992.34.7%

Changeup19%9287.311.6%

Sinker16%7791.25.8%

Curveball14%9279.210.1%

Cutter12%9488.59.5%

Sweeper11%9282.213.1%

Slider5%8583.511.1%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	88	5%	9%	21%	.379
Sep 13	90	26%	13%	22%	.254
Sep 7	105	15%	10%	26%	.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Garrett Mitchell30%

2Brice Turang25%

3William Contreras18%

4Jake Bauers30%

5Christian Yelich25%

6Joey Ortiz21%

7Luis Lara23%

8Sal Frelick14%

9David Hamilton21%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

MIL starter

Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL

4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings

Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.2%

BB%6.7%

Whiff%9.1%

Velo88.6

BTB Stuff94

Location98

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sweeper24%10180.712.7%

Fastball24%9993.110.7%

Cutter20%8088.87.1%

Sinker20%9593.13.4%

Changeup11%8888.512.5%

Slider1%9883.90.0%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	107	8%	8%	27%	.238
Sep 13	89	25%	11%	25%	.222
Sep 7	83	25%	12%	10%	.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1JJ Wetherholt20%

2Iván Herrera18%

3Jordan Walker24%

4Leo Bernal25%

5José Fermín12%

6Thomas Saggese27%

7Masyn Winn27%

8Pedro Pagés26%

9Victor Scott II23%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineuppitch-mix battle

Robert Gasser's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Robert Gasser's pitches					STL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sweeper	24%	80.7	101	12.7%	-1.02	.284	11.5%	13.8%	-0.20
Fastball	24%	93.1	99	10.7%	-0.73	.322	7.8%	28.6%	+0.39
Cutter	20%	88.8	80	7.1%	1.47	.383	8.6%	39.2%	+0.56
Sinker	20%	93.1	95	3.4%	1.13	.371	6.4%	36.4%	+0.43
Changeup	11%	88.5	88	12.5%	-0.90	.318	16.9%	21.2%	+0.03

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineuppitch-mix battle

Michael McGreevy's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Michael McGreevy's pitches					MIL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	23%	92.3	69	4.7%	-1.74	.380	7.9%	32.4%	+1.35
Changeup	19%	87.3	92	11.6%	-0.20	.286	14.3%	16.8%	-0.27
Sinker	16%	91.2	77	5.8%	1.05	.391	5.3%	34.0%	+0.63
Curveball	14%	79.2	92	10.1%	0.06	.221	12.7%	15.0%	-0.79
Cutter	12%	88.5	94	9.5%	-0.08	.366	10.1%	26.6%	+0.31
Sweeper	11%	82.2	92	13.1%	0.17	.347	11.4%	22.3%	+0.30
Slider	5%	83.5	85	11.1%	-0.38	.291	14.0%	25.3%	-0.10

Bullpens

Cardinals bullpen#14 of 30

K%24.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%13.8%

SwStr%12.6%

wOBA allowed.332

Arms available15 / 16

Pitched yesterday: Hjerpe, Leahy, Stanek (Back-to-Back), Mautz, Graceffo.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Brewers bullpen#15 of 30

K%21.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.6%

SwStr%9.3%

wOBA allowed.309

Arms available18 / 18

Pitched yesterday: Drohan, Ashby, Senzatela, Romero, Patrick.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+4 pts

Fastball-3 pts

Curveball+3 pts

Sinker+0 pts

Sweeper+2 pts

Slider+1 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	19%	23%	24.4%	17.5%	18.6%
Fastball	23%	20%	14.6%	13.9%	18.0%
Curveball	14%	18%	22.9%	12.9%	20.0%
Sinker	16%	17%	13.2%	22.0%	17.0%
Sweeper	11%	12%	21.7%	13.6%	19.3%
Slider	5%	6%	20.0%	10.0%	21.1%
Cutter	12%	5%	16.7%	16.7%	17.9%

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+12 pts

Fastball+7 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Cutter-13 pts

Slider+1 pts

Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	24%	36%	28.0%	20.3%	20.5%
Fastball	24%	30%	15.2%	15.5%	18.6%
Sinker	20%	16%	0.0%	15.9%	17.7%
Changeup	11%	9%	21.7%	17.1%	18.3%
Cutter	20%	7%	0.0%	3.7%	17.9%
Slider	1%	1%	0.0%	0.0%	21.6%

Cardinals lineup

Confirmed · facing Robert Gasser LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	JJ Wetherholt 2B · bats L	64.6%	38.7%	11.7%	4.0	+0.1	.311	C	Power	Normal
2	Iván Herrera DH · bats R	62.6%	35.7%	11.7%	3.9	+1.2	.335	C	Balanced	Normal
3	Jordan Walker RF · bats R	60.9%	36.6%	13.7%	3.8	+1.8	.362	B	Power	Normal
4	Leo Bernal 1B · bats S	66.2%	39.0%	13.5%	3.8	+1.2	.317	B	Power	Cold
5	José Fermín LF · bats R	63.0%	34.5%	7.4%	3.7	+1.1	.336	B	Contact	Normal
6	Thomas Saggese 3B · bats R	62.7%	35.9%	11.0%	3.6	+1.5	.347	C	Balanced	Normal
7	Masyn Winn SS · bats R	56.2%	28.7%	6.6%	3.5	+1.2	.305	D	Balanced	Cold
8	Pedro Pagés C · bats R	52.3%	25.8%	7.2%	3.4	+0.8	.298	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Victor Scott II CF · bats L	50.7%	24.0%	4.9%	3.3	-0.1	.291	F	Balanced	Normal

Brewers lineup

Confirmed · facing Michael McGreevy RHP